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Gen Z embraces Bitcoin despite acknowledged volatility. Younger investors treat crypto risk as portfolio diversification rather than pure speculation.
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Gen Z embraces Bitcoin despite acknowledged volatility. Younger investors treat crypto risk as portfolio diversification rather than pure speculation.
Institutions pay custodians for illusory safety. Bitcoin's onchain governance eliminates counterparty risk that traditional models reintroduce.
General-purpose blockchains can’t solve industry disputes over construction changes or equipment usage. Specialized layer 1s are optimized for stateless audit trails and regulatory compliance.
Tokenomics favor speed over conviction, using genuine supporters as exit liquidity. Crypto’s mainstream future requires replacing extraction with participation incentives.
AI wearables will harvest our most intimate data while we pretend privacy still exists. Cryptography could enable us to keep our privacy.
Crypto’s path forward lies in embracing imperfect regulation. Waiting for flawless frameworks will only stall adoption, innovation and the tokenization of real assets.
Second-generation stablecoins separate yield from principal, enabling holders to earn returns while keeping liquidity and turning static dollars into productive assets.
Car buyers face opaque waitlists and massive markups on new models. Tokenizing reservations could create transparent, tradable queue positions worth trillions.
Ethereum’s dominance in stablecoins and real-world assets shifted ETH from a speculative play to a major platform for institutional finance.
Rollup-based layer 2s destroy crypto’s trustless nature through centralized sequencers that control inclusion, ordering and execution of transactions.
$33 trillion in debt matures in 2026. How will Bitcoin respond to macro forces and credit markets that may impact its future as much as halvings once did?
Whether the Fed yields to political pressure or stands firm, inflation looks inevitable. The only variable is speed and what it means for Bitcoin.
Web3 remains a popular buzzword in crypto, but are DApps and altcoins actually delivering on their promises?
The real tokenization revolution is unfolding in private markets, unlocking access, liquidity and inclusion beyond what public stocks offer.
Developing nations can use crypto to bypass financial constraints, hedge inflation and attract investment. Emerging economies are discovering crypto’s power.
DeFi’s future depends on embracing institutional investors, whose capital, credibility and demand for stability are shifting DeFi from a speculative playground into a mature, trusted financial ecosystem.
Ether is showing renewed strength as tight supply, rising demand, and bullish technicals align, pushing ETH toward a possible $9,000 target.
Institutional capital brings Bitcoin stability and status, but also systemic risk, regulatory pressure, and a creeping erosion of its core ethos.
Ethereum’s role in stablecoins, RWAs, and DeFi is fueling institutional interest, positioning ETH as a reserve asset, store of value, and digital oil.
XRP is often criticized for “not having a use case,” yet it remains a top performer in the current bull market. Why?
From volatile outsider to financial base layer, Bitcoin is entering a new era — driven not by retail hype, but by the long-term logic of professional capital.
Onchain data shows that retail investors are not buying Bitcoin, but analysts say they’ve shifted into buying the spot ETFs.
A weakening US economy and Fed rate cuts set the stage for Bitcoin’s next move, but, onchain data shows a fragile bull market missing retail demand. Could it return by fall?
Blockchain’s next leap is about intelligence. Predictive infrastructure anticipates demand, erases latency and enables new levels of trust and scalability. Blockchain can become proactive and invisible.
HYPE is up 300%, and Hyperliquid leads the DEX perp market. But with a $38B valuation and just 21 validators, some question whether the rise is sustainable.
Intents overhaul crypto's clunky user experience by letting people state what they want while the system handles the complexity behind the scenes. This outcome-driven approach opens the door to mainstream adoption and agent-driven financial automation.
Ethereum staking yields are falling as yield-bearing stablecoins and DeFi protocols offer more competitive returns. Can ETH regain the upper hand in the yield wars?
Crypto IPO season is underway. Circle’s explosive debut has fueled filings from Gemini and Bullish, with Kraken, BitGo, and Consensys potentially next.
President Trump’s debt-heavy bill could speed up the devaluation of the US dollar. With higher inflation looming, Bitcoin may be one of the few real hedges left.
Bitcoin's recent rally occurred as funding rates turned negative, and BTC held on exchanges and OTC desks shrank.
Bitcoin traders say market cyclicality, institutional investor adoption and an incoming wave of liquidity will supercharge BTC price in 2025.
Crypto’s optimism isn’t just hype; it’s a structural feature. Even as global shocks and policy shifts rattle traditional markets, digital assets consistently show greater emotional resilience.
Key takeaways:
Rising bond yields reflect growing concern about fiscal stability and inflation, leading some investors to question US Treasury’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset.
Bitcoin defies conventional risk models, rising not despite worsening macro conditions, but possibly because of them.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to new heights amid an increasingly fragile global macroeconomic backdrop. Bond yields are surging in the US and Japan, global growth is stalling, and consumer confidence in the US is scraping historic lows.
Paradoxically, the very macro conditions that once threatened Bitcoin’s price are now fueling its rise. The shift speaks to a broader transformation in how investors interpret risk and where they seek refuge. At the center of this realignment is the US debt crisis and ballooning Treasury yields, which were once considered the safest assets in the world.
When US bond yields rise, the cost of servicing its national debt increases sharply — a critical issue given that US debt has now surpassed $36.8 trillion, and the interest payments are expected to total $952 billion in 2025.
US President Donald Trump made it clear on several occasions that lowering yields was among his top economic priorities. However, this may prove far more difficult than he expected, as the two most reliable methods to achieve it both need to come from the US Federal Reserve. Lowering interest rates would make newly issued bonds yield less, making existing higher-yielding bonds more attractive, pushing up their price and lowering their effective yield. Another way is through quantitative easing (QE), where the Fed would buy large amounts of bonds on the open market, thus increasing demand and lowering yields.
The Federal Reserve is currently resisting both strategies and taking caution not to reignite inflation, particularly amid the ongoing tariff war. Even if Trump finds a legal or quasi-legal way to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it could backfire by eroding investor confidence and producing the opposite of the intended effect.
Investors do not appreciate political meddling with the foundations of the US and global economy, and their confidence is already fragile. In times of instability, investors traditionally flock to government bonds as a safe haven. But today, the opposite is happening. Investors are turning away from Treasurys, suggesting the problems in the US economy are too large to ignore. The recent loss of the US government’s last AAA credit rating is a stark confirmation.
On May 22, the yield on the US 30-year bond hit 5.15% — its highest since October 2023, and before that, a level not seen since July 2007. The 10-year yield now stands at 4.48%, the 5-year yield at 4%, and the 2-year yield at 3.92%.
For the first time since October 2021, the US 5-Year to 30-Year bond spread has steepened to 1.00%. This suggests markets are pricing in stronger growth, persistent inflation, and a “higher for longer” rate environment.
Related: Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high and data shows BTC bulls aren’t done yet
Compounding the problem is Japan, the largest foreign holder of US Treasurys. Japanese investors currently hold $1.13 trillion in US government debt, $350 billion more than China. For decades, Japanese institutions borrowed cheaply at home to invest in US bonds and stocks — a strategy known as the carry trade.
This era may be ending. In March 2024, the Bank of Japan started raising interest rates from -0.1% to 0.5% now. Since April, the Japanese 30-year bond yield has surged by 100 basis points, reaching an all-time high of 3.1%. The 20-year bond yields rose to 2.53%, a level not seen since 1999.
On May 19, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even warned the country’s parliament that his debt-strapped government’s position was “worse than Greece” — a startling admission for a country with a 260% debt-to-GDP ratio.
Interestingly, the surge in long-dated Japanese bonds wasn’t matched by shorter maturities. The 10-year bond yield is 1.53%, and the 5-year bond yield is just 1%. As Reuters noted, this suggests a strategic shift by large Japanese pension and insurance funds as the Bank of Japan “normalizes” interest rates. These institutions may now be reassessing both duration risk and foreign bond exposure, which spells potential trouble for US Treasurys if (or when) they begin unwinding their holdings.
As the US continues down the debt spiral, and Japan might be starting its own, the global economy is nowhere near recovery, and that could be a good sign for Bitcoin.
Traditionally, rising bond yields would drag down risk assets. Yet stocks and Bitcoin continue climbing. This divergence suggests investors may be moving away from the traditional playbook. When confidence in the system erodes, assets outside it, like stocks and Bitcoin, begin to shine, even if they are considered risk-on.
What’s more, between Bitcoin and US stocks, an increasing number of institutions choose Bitcoin. As The Kobeissi Letter noted, net 38% of institutional investors were underweight US equities in early May, the lowest since May 2023, according to BofA.
Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass, total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, with assets under management now exceeding $104 billion, an all-time high. This surge suggests that institutional capital is beginning to recognize Bitcoin not just as a high-performing asset, but as a politically neutral store of value, akin to gold. In an era of mounting instability in fiat debt-based economies, Bitcoin is emerging as a credible alternative, offering a monetary system grounded in predictability and decentralization. With a market cap still well below gold’s $22 trillion or even the $5.5 trillion in base dollars (not including debt), Bitcoin remains significantly undervalued.
Interestingly, the current situation supports both of Bitcoin’s once-contradictory narratives: It is acting as a high-yield risk asset and a safe haven store of value. In a world where old frameworks are failing, Bitcoin's dual role may no longer be an anomaly, but a sign of what’s to come.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin market cycle tops are notoriously hard to time, but combining technical and behavioral indicators can offer strong signals.
The MVRV-Z Score, Pi Cycle Top indicator, trade volume trends, Puell Multiple, and exchange inflows accurately predict Bitcoin price cycle tops.
Bitcoin (BTC) might be approaching the final stage of its current market cycle — a dramatic final rally followed by a sharp correction and, eventually, a bear market. For many, this could be the long-awaited climax of the past four years, and major players are preparing accordingly.
Since late 2024, Bitcoin whale accumulation has surged. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding over 100 BTC has jumped by almost 14%, reaching 18,200 — a level not seen since 2017. The biggest market players appear to be positioning for what could be this cycle’s final run-up.
However, riding the rally is trickier than it looks and knowing when to exit is notoriously difficult. The lure of higher price highs fuels FOMO, driving investors to buy the top, only to face painful drawdowns or even liquidations.
So, how can traders and investors spot the top before the market enters recession?
Several technical and onchain indicators, such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, Pi Cycle Top, and trading volume trends, have historically been reliable in signaling when Bitcoin is nearing its peak.
The MVRV-Z score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility. A high Z-score suggests Bitcoin is significantly overvalued relative to its historical cost basis. When this indicator is at a historical high, the ensuing downward trend in Bitcoin prices is likely.
The Pi Cycle Top tracks BTC price dynamics using moving averages. When the 111-day simple moving average (111-SMA) crosses above twice the 350-day average (350-SMAx2), it signals overheating. In other words, when the short-term trend catches up to the long-term trajectory, a market top is in.
Historically, all previous Bitcoin bull runs started with a notable surge in MVRV Z-score, and ended with 111-SMA crossing the longer-term trend.
Additionally, lower trading volumes during price increases can be a warning sign, often signaling weakening momentum and potential for a reversal. On-balance volume (OBV), which registers cumulative volume flow, is a valuable metric for tracking this process. When OBV diverges from the price action, it is often an early reversal signal.
The second leg of the 2021 bull run was a great example. While BTC price was hitting higher highs of $68,000 (compared to the previous all-time high of $63,170), trading volumes moved in a different direction, decreasing from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This created a bearish divergence between price and volume, suggesting that fewer market participants were supporting the rally — a classic sign of waning momentum.
As market cycle tops approach, long-term holders and Bitcoin miners often start locking in profits. Some valuable metrics that can track it are the Puell Multiple and exchange flows.
The Puell Multiple Indicator looks at miners' revenue relative to its 365-day average. High readings indicate miners may start selling aggressively, and are often seen near market tops.
Large inflows to exchanges are usually signs of distribution, as investors prepare to sell their coins.
Individually, these indicators can mark various shifts in market trends. Combined, they often align with cycle tops.
Related: Sorry bears — Bitcoin analysis dismisses $107K BTC price double top
Historic price activity observations might come in handy, too. Crypto market analyst Cole Garner shared his exit playbook based on whales’ behavior. His roadmap includes three steps:
Euphoria. Bitcoin moves vertically for weeks, with massive $10,000+ daily candles.
Whiplash. Bitcoin experiences its sharpest correction of the bull cycle. The curved parabolic trendline that’s supported the rally is broken — a clear signal that the top is likely in. Meanwhile, altcoins and meme tokens may continue pumping a little longer.
Complacency. Measure 15% below Bitcoin’s all-time high. That’s the sell zone. Order books on major exchanges often show a wall of sell orders around this level — a likely institutional exit point.
According to Garner, the 15% (or 16%) rule works not only in crypto but in traditional markets as well.
No single indicator can pinpoint the exact moment to exit, especially in a shifting macro environment. But when multiple signals align, they become hard to ignore. The final leg of a Bitcoin bull market is thrilling, but knowing when the music might stop is key to locking in profits.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Opinion by: Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO
The crypto community often experiences periods of heightened anxiety. Market downturns are often triggered by counterproductive sentiment-driven events rather than by fundamental issues, creating a significant disconnect between price behavior and the actual progress being made within the industry by the companies within it. What often goes unnoticed is how much real development happens during these downturns. While market movements capture most of the attention, teams are building faster and more deliberately behind the scenes than ever. The focus shifts away from price speculation and toward real execution. Growth happens during downturns. It's a necessary phase for projects that thrive in a volatile industry. They re-focus attention on refining their technology and business, fueling the next wave of progress.
As a result, there's a disconnect between online sentiment and conversations between blockchain industry leaders. For builders and project leaders, the atmosphere is of determination, not doom.
One of the most promising developments is the accelerating momentum of regulation policy. Many European companies are applying for MiCA licenses in preparation for regulatory updates. There's also a significant policy shift under new US leadership as the SEC retreats from several high-profile crypto enforcement actions.
The disparity between sentiment and reality serves as a reminder that price is a lagging indicator. Selloffs are triggered by uncertainty around tariff announcements and background activity such as interest rates. Material, long-term statistics speak for the virtually universal optimism among industry leaders as the number of active developers has remained stable, and the number of established developers almost doubled last year. That's an incredible jump in only one year.
Maturation means teams thoughtfully building, governments engaging seriously with legislation, and users demanding better UX and real utility. The industry has a well-established pattern — market corrections wipe away hype and encourage focus. The last bear market gave rise to breakthroughs in DeFi, NFTs, and zero-knowledge tech. This time, it's about real-world infrastructure, regulation-ready platforms, and next-gen scalability.
What emerges in these periods tends to be less visible but more durable. Teams that remain active are often those with clear models, sufficient runway, and a willingness to adapt. These are the periods when we learn whether the systems being built can handle real-world demands. One of the most promising frontiers lies at the intersection of AI and blockchain, the most ubiquitous being within Large Language Models. AI is, however, only as good as the data it's trained on.
AI systems are evolving rapidly, but their foundations are skewed. They're built primarily on data scraped from the digital-first countries that predominantly lie in the northern hemisphere, which dominates global media production and internet usage. This creates a feedback loop where Western and East Asian perspectives and widely spoken languages such as English and Mandarin are not only amplified but leave little room for necessary data from smaller populations.
A report from Web3 Technologies said 60% of tier-one media on the internet is English. Prominent among these media outlets is The New York Times, which has sued OpenAI based on copyright infringement. The publication alleges that their copyright-protected data was used to train OpenAI's LLM model.
Recent: The future of finance is built on Bitcoin — Ethereum was just the testnet
Knowing the full extent of the global imbalance in the data creating AI outputs is impossible. Allegations like this and the results delivered when using AI tools suggest the pressing need for a solution.
It's even worse. When AI systems are trained on narrow, incomplete data sets, the results can exclude billions from the benefits of emerging technologies. As IBM highlights, data bias isn't just a technical issue — it's a human one with real-world consequences in healthcare, finance, agriculture, and beyond.
It's become normal to use AI data every day. We receive personalized Google search results, Adobe has built AI into its industry-standard graphic and video software, and we use AI assistants like Gemini, Grok, and ChatGPT to formulate the thoughts with which we represent ourselves. All of these tools are affected by an overwhelming bias toward the center of a bell curve within their data sets, unable to access or address less common use cases.
A popular example demonstrates this issue: Until recently, image generators could not create a full wine glass. No matter what prompt you provided, a wine glass full to the edge was beyond the capabilities of all known generative AI software because they had never been provided photos of wine glasses full to the brim. Their data sets had to be updated to correct this comical problem, which revealed a much more serious one.
Decentralized data offers a solution. Globally incentivized systems like DePINs enable the participation of populations that would otherwise remain underserved, allowing the valuable data they provide to come online. This improves the service for everyone, making smaller global communities more accessible to commerce and enabling them easier access to the rest of the world. It also empowers smaller data creators to monetize their data rather than relinquishing it to tech giants.
The crypto industry is entering a new phase. A phase that's more productive and sustainable. Expect to see rapid growth in working infrastructure, platforms and applications that welcome knowledgeable, consumer-friendly regulations and projects that respect the time and money of their users.
Opportunities within the crypto space are changing but not shrinking. Our opportunities grow as we learn from what has not worked in the last few years. They will take time to develop, but successful builders will focus on long-term, incremental change and sound business practices rather than chasing fads and short-term profits.
The momentum of real progress has never been stronger, and it is precisely during times like these, when it feels like no one's watching, that the foundations of the future are laid.
Opinion by: Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin price maintains its bullish momentum, but a sentiment indicator suggests the market could be overheating.
Data highlights Bitcoin traders taking profits and a lopsided market angled toward longs.
Analysts warn of a potential short-term correction, especially if gold weakens or seasonal trends play out.
Optimism has returned to the crypto markets, and many traders believe Bitcoin (BTC) price is on the path to new all-time highs. In just one month, Bitcoin surged 39%, briefly crossing the $105,000 mark. According to Glassnode analysts, “there are signs of renewed market strength, and the market is trading within a profit-dominated regime.”
Still, not everyone is convinced the rally will continue unchecked. Some investors are already taking profits, pushing Bitcoin’s realized cap to an all-time high of $889 billion. Even more profit-taking is expected at the $106,000 level.
Historically, euphoric market sentiment has often led to periods of consolidation—or even sharp corrections. That risk may be growing, particularly as gold, whose price action Bitcoin has closely mirrored in recent months, is showing signs of fatigue and could be heading for a correction itself.
The recent Bitcoin rally has returned over 3 million BTC to a profitable state, according to Glassnode. This shift has reignited capital inflows, which exceeded $1 billion per day, suggesting strong demand-side interest and a market willing to absorb selling pressure. Even most short-term holders who were underwater since the December 2024 peak have seen their portfolios turn green.
This relief, both financial and psychological, is already translating into spending behavior. The net difference between short-term holders’ transfer volume in profit versus at a loss has swung sharply to +20% — a notable reversal from the -20% seen during the capitulation phase at the end of April.
Institutional investor confidence is also rebounding. Over the past three weeks, more than $5.7 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, according to CoinGlass. The total assets under management held within the US spot ETFs have now climbed to over 1.26 million BTC, a new all-time high.
With so much momentum, it’s easy to imagine a moonshot. But that same momentum may be cause for caution. BTC’s open interest has climbed to $68 billion, near all-time highs, indicating a heavily positioned market. In such conditions, even a small catalyst could spark an outsized move—up or down.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, warned that Bitcoin might be getting a bit ahead of itself. He posted Bitwise’s in-house Cryptoasset Sentiment Index, which has reached its highest level since November 2024.
The index, which includes 15 sub-indicators spanning sentiment, flows, onchain data, and derivatives (such as the perpetual funding rate and put-call volume ratio), now shows an overheated market.
In comments to Cointelegraph, Dragosch said:
“The latest readings imply that market sentiment has become overheated and that positioning appears to be one-sided on the long side. It tends to signal an increased risk for a temporary pull-back in the price of Bitcoin, and that the current rally could take a break.”
Yet, Dragosch remains “structurally constructive” until the end of 2025, citing the continued BTC accumulation by corporations and ETPs, which continues to deplete Bitcoin on-exchange balances.
Related: Arizona governor kills two crypto bills, cracks down on Bitcoin ATMs
Several risks could challenge Bitcoin in the short term.
For Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, renewed regulatory uncertainty is a top concern, particularly after the Senate stalled stablecoin legislation last week.
Broader shifts in market behavior may also be at play. Since March 2025, Bitcoin has shown a stronger correlation with gold than with equities. That shift followed dramatic changes in US policy, which appeared to steer capital toward politically neutral assets: both Bitcoin and gold rose 22% (the latter since corrected to a 13% gain). At the same time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 merely clawed back earlier losses.
This divergence continues on shorter time frames. Since May 12, major US indexes gained 3% to 4% on positive developments in US-China trade relations, but Bitcoin barely budged. Meanwhile, gold has started printing lower highs — a potential early signal of a downtrend, as noted by analyst Michael Van de Poppe. If gold enters a corrective phase, Bitcoin might follow suit.
Seasonality may also play a role. The adage “sell in May and go away” has some historical backing. As analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted, May has typically been a green month for Bitcoin (averaging over 8%), while June and September are often the worst-performing months. As he put it,
“Seasonality is never something to solely base your decisions on, but it can work out well. Many investors are watching the same thing after all.”
Whether this rally has more room to run — or is due for a breather — may soon be put to the test.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Opinion by: Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC
It’s a volatile world out there. This year, we’ve seen stocks take a wild ride as gold has pumped and crypto has been caught somewhere in the middle. Investors have dumped risk assets and scrambled for safe havens. Gold is leading the charge.
While gold is safe, it is not very hard-working. Unlike cash and treasuries, the yellow metal does not generate income. Now, more than ever, investors need to be able to earn yield on gold — particularly in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.
The only way to make money from gold is to buy low and sell high. Most investors don’t tend to buy gold like this. That’s for good reason — over the long term, gold’s performance is typically consistent, if not without a few peaks and troughs here and there, as we have recently seen.
For example, after the 2008 financial crisis, the price of gold soared 148% but stagnated for nearly a decade before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered another rally, and it's likely we will see gold hold, if not fall from it's new record high once markets revive. While it remains an excellent hedge, gold’s long-term track record is not a growth story.
Investors prefer US Treasurys or high-yield savings accounts as part of a balanced portfolio. While gold may outperform these assets in uncertain times, it offers a better balance of security and predictable income over the long term.
This is where DeFi brings innovation to the world’s oldest asset. DeFi can significantly modernize gold investing, offering the speed and transparency of blockchain-based transactions and the ability to earn returns.
Currently, though, most tokenized gold is much the same as holding it in an exchange-traded fund (ETF). Stablecoin giants like Tether and Paxos have launched gold-backed tokens, which they say are fully backed by physical, audited gold reserves, yet offer no yield.
Recent: Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal grows during trade war uncertainty
Most DeFi investors prefer liquid, tradable assets like cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, which can generate attractive returns. Many would rather, for example, buy Tether’s USDt (USDT) stablecoin and stake it, earning rewards while still maintaining ownership.
Perhaps this is why the market capitalization of gold-backed tokens remains modest. Tether Gold, the world’s most significant gold token, has a market capitalization of just under $835 million, for example, while Paxos Gold sits at around $799 million. Combined, this is equivalent to just 1% of the market cap of USDT.
To unlock gold’s full potential, we need to take tokenization a step further by creating a DeFi ecosystem where tokenized gold is actively put to work — borrowed, lent and integrated into yield-bearing strategies.
One possibility is for companies such as gold miners is to issue tokenized versions of their reserves that can be turned into stablecoins that can then be staked to earn a yield. Leveraging protocols whose liquidity mechanisms enable the trading of stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokens, holders could take advantage of further yield opportunities throughout the DeFi ecosystem.
Beyond the benefits of yield opportunities, blockchain technology means investors in tokenized gold can benefit from the flexibility of 24-hour trading, near real-time price discovery and near-instant settlement without compromising the stability of the asset.
It is, perhaps, ironic that — just as governments worldwide are starting to put their stamp of approval on digital finance — gold is becoming a highly desirable commodity again. The public’s interest in it will grow as governments essentially ratify digital finance. At the same time, the appetite for gold in these uncertain times will also increase.
DeFi could bring these trends together and kickstart a natural evolution in gold ownership that provides a solid bridge between traditional and digital finance. While gold inside traditional markets attracts investors looking for stability, DeFi brings opportunities that don’t compromise that stability, as it presents new and unique yield opportunities.
Gold has captivated humanity for thousands of years. It’s the foundation of myths, the standard of wealth and the ultimate hedge against uncertainty. But in today’s financial world, it needs an upgrade.
Through integrating gold into the DeFi ecosystem, we could unlock its true potential — not just as a store of value but as an income-generating asset. The world’s oldest safe haven asset is finally on the brink of a digital evolution.
Opinion by: Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s price closely tracks global liquidity growth, with liquidity explaining up to 90% of its price movements, according to Raoul Pal.
In the long term, global liquidity continues to expand, driven by the increasing debt levels in many countries.
On a shorter timeframe, global liquidity follows a cyclical pattern, with Michael Howell projecting the current cycle to peak by mid-2026.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is notoriously sensitive to global liquidity. Some analysts go as far as calling their correlation near-perfect, with a lag of about three months. This relationship is fueling the current bullish narrative as BTC price soars back above $100,000, but how long can this trend last?
Raoul Pal, the founder of Global Macro Investor, recently gave a speech on the strong correlation between Bitcoin and global M2 liquidity. In a recap posted by Paul Guerra, Pal’s message refers to: despite looming concerns — recession risks, geopolitical tensions, and other global stressors — rising liquidity as the dominant force behind asset price action.
According to Pal, expanding liquidity backs up to 90% of Bitcoin’s price action and as much as 97% of the Nasdaq’s performance. Indeed, a chart comparing global M2 (with a 12-week lead) and Bitcoin’s price shows an almost uncanny alignment.
Pal also frames the issue in personal finance terms. He says there's an 11% "hidden tax" on all of us, composed of 8% currency debasement and 3% global inflation. He notes,
“If you’re not earning more than 11%/yr, you’re getting poorer by definition.”
Bitcoin has returned an average of 130% annually since 2012, despite dramatic drawdowns. That makes it one of the most asymmetric bets of the past decade — and it’s outperformed the Nasdaq by over 99%.
At its core, global liquidity is fueled by expanding the money supply. As independent investor Lyn Alden puts it,
“Fiat currency systems are primarily based on ever-growing debt levels. The money supply continuously grows in every country for this reason.”
This offers a high-level view of global liquidity and suggests its long-term expansion is structural. However, this growth isn't linear. Over shorter time frames, it fluctuates based on specific drivers.
Michael Howell, author of “Capital Wars,” identifies three main drivers currently impacting global liquidity: the US Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), and banks lending through collateral markets.
Howell also points to indirect influences that act with a lag of six to 15 months. These include the world business cycle, oil prices, dollar strength, and bond market volatility. A weak global economy and a softening dollar typically boost liquidity. But rising bond volatility tightens collateral supply and chokes lending, undermining liquidity.
Related: New bull cycle? Bitcoin's return to $100K hints at ‘significant price move’
Michael Howell believes that global liquidity moves in roughly five-year cycles, and is now on the way to its local peak. He projects the current cycle to mature by mid-2026, reaching an index level of around 70 (below the post-COVID index of 90). That would mark a turning point, with a subsequent downturn being a likely outcome.
The recent growth in global liquidity stems from the rapidly weakening world economy, which is likely to prompt further easing by central banks. The People’s Bank of China has already begun injecting liquidity into the system.
The Fed now faces a tough choice: continue fighting inflation or pivot to support an increasingly fragile financial system. At its May 7 meeting, rates were held steady, but the pressure on Chair Jerome Powell is mounting, especially from US President Donald Trump.
At the same time, economic uncertainty is driving up US Treasury yields and fueling bond market volatility, both indicators of collateral scarcity and tightening credit conditions. Over time, these pressures are likely to become headwinds for liquidity expansion. Meanwhile, a looming recession is expected to weaken investor risk appetite, further draining liquidity from the system.
Even if a downturn lies ahead in 2026, global liquidity still has room to run, at least through 2025. And that matters for Bitcoin.
Howell notes,
“The likely inevitable policy response of ‘more liquidity’ is a great future omen. It establishes the upward path of persistent monetary inflation that ultimately underpins hedges such as gold, quality equities, prime residential real estate, and Bitcoin.”
Interestingly, Howell’s liquidity cycle roughly aligns with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. The former points to a potential peak in late 2025, and the latter in early 2026. If history rhymes again, that convergence could set the stage for a major price move.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
What to know:
Lyn Alden says a weaker dollar is necessary for the US to stabilize its financial system.
Bitcoin and gold are well-positioned to benefit from de-dollarization.
Sovereign wealth funds and various nations are already increasing their Bitcoin exposure as the dollar’s global dominance starts to wane.
The weakening of the US dollar (DXY) is no longer headline news. With mounting disruptions across the US economy, a declining greenback has become part of the backdrop. Since the start of 2025, the US Dollar Index has dropped 11%, now hovering around levels last seen in April 2022. Markets have largely responded with a shrug. After all, in times of deep restructuring, isn’t some dollar weakness to be expected?
The trouble is, this might not be a temporary dip. The dollar’s slide could reflect a deeper, long-term reconfiguration of both the US economy and the global monetary order. In a May 4 newsletter, independent market analyst Lyn Alden made a compelling case: not only is a weaker dollar likely, but it may be necessary.
According to Alden, a controlled retreat from dollar hegemony might be one of the few paths left to stabilize an increasingly fragile system. And if the US relinquishes its role at the center of the monetary universe, the world will need alternatives. Neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin could be well-positioned to take on a more central role.
Fractional reserve banking, the system that fiat money relies on, creates money through lending. Each time a bank issues a loan, it expands the supply of broad money, without necessarily creating enough base money to cover the loan principal and its interest. This means that the current financial system relies on continual credit expansion and refinancing to remain solvent.
Today, the US economy holds around $102 trillion in public and private dollar-denominated debt, with another $18 trillion owed by borrowers outside the US And that’s not even counting derivatives, which would push the total much higher.
Yet only $5.8 trillion in base money actually exists.
“It’s like a game of musical chairs with more than 20 kids for every chair,” Alden writes. “And the music can’t stop for long.”
The US plays a special role in this system. It imports more than it exports, while surplus countries funnel their dollar earnings back into American stocks, bonds, real estate, and private equity. For the $18 trillion in dollar liabilities held abroad, non-US entities hold roughly $61 trillion in US dollar assets. But when dollar liquidity tightens — when the music stops — foreign holders often have to sell those assets to service their debts, which, in turn, threatens US financial stability.
This happened in March 2020, when parts of the Treasury market froze during the peak panic stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed stepped in, quickly opening emergency swap lines with foreign central banks and printing trillions in base money to re-float the system. That solved the liquidity issue but unleashed inflation, hitting lower-income Americans the hardest.
Combined with decades of industrial decline and widening social gaps, this situation eventually created the political mandate for Donald Trump and his protectionist agenda. However, the tariff shock is unlikely to be successful, Alden argues.
The current system implies that the US must run structural trade deficits to provide the global economy with enough dollars to keep the greenback’s dominance. The only way of rebalancing trade flows is through a weak dollar and a step back from monetary hegemony.
As Alden puts it:
“I view the United States and indeed the global financial system as likely beginning a very long-term transition.”
Bitcoin (BTC) and DXY are inversely correlated. When the dollar strengthens, risk-on assets like BTC lose some of their appeal to investors. When the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not just as a speculative play, but as an alternative currency. In a system where fiat must effectively lose value over time to function, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and monetary neutrality offer a compelling hedge.
Overlaying BTC and DXY charts reveals that major divergences between the two often align with Bitcoin trend reversals. In April 2018 and March 2022, such divergences signaled bear markets, while November 2020 marked the start of a bullish rally.
In the 2023-2026 cycle, BTC caught up with the DXY in early 2024, and the two moved largely in sync until recently. A clear divergence began at the beginning of April 2025, with the DXY dropping below 100 for the first time in two years.
If past patterns are any guide, this could signal the start of a new BTC rally. And if the US moves to strategically weaken the dollar in the long term, the impact could extend well beyond Bitcoin’s usual cyclical price action.
Related: How much Bitcoin can Berkshire Hathaway buy?
Periods of monetary upheaval are notoriously difficult to navigate. While short-term tactics may differ, longer-term strategies point to neutral, high-quality reserve assets — especially those that stand to benefit structurally from de-dollarization.
Gold fits this bill. So does Bitcoin.
Several sovereign entities are already stockpiling Bitcoin. El Salvador and Bhutan are directly buying and mining BTC. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co. and the US state of Wisconsin’s pension fund have exposure via spot BTC ETFs.
A dozen US states hold equity in Michael Saylor’s Strategy, as well as over 13,000 companies and institutions. Even Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, has Bitcoin exposure through its holdings of Strategy, Mara Holdings, Coinbase, and Riot.
With the dollar retreating from the global financial arena, space will open for other currencies. There are more and more examples of international trade deals settled in yuan, dirham, or other national currencies.
Reuters reports that cross-border yuan payments surged to a record in March. The euro is also on the rise, gaining 10% against the dollar since February. This is all the more impressive taking into account that the European Central Bank has been continuously cutting interest rates, which now stand at just 2.5%, far below the Fed’s 4.5%.
The idea of “de-dollarization” is beginning to take shape in practical terms. As some countries and companies consider alternatives for trade settlement and value storage, Bitcoin’s borderless and politically independent features have attracted attention as one possible option.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Key takeaways:
ETH price has underperformed its peers during the current bull market, but gas sponsorship could lure developers and traders back to the network.
Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade promises to improve staking efficiency, potentially increasing demand for ETH.
Data suggests ETH price bottomed. Will the Pectra narrative reignite bullish momentum?
Since 2024, Ether (ETH) has been more of a meme than a market mover. Unlike most of its rivals, ETH still hasn’t reclaimed its all-time high of $4,870 from November 2021, and it regularly underperforms even in the weak altcoin market. Currently, ETH trades at $1,813, down 56% from its local peak in December 2024.
Despite the dismal price action, dismissing Ethereum as a relic may be premature. The network continues to evolve, and the upcoming Pectra upgrade scheduled for May 7 could rekindle market interest.
By addressing long-standing user experience challenges and improving staking, Pectra may help Ethereum narrow the competitive gap with rivals like Solana and BNB. What’s more, it could potentially serve as the catalyst that brings the Ether price back into the spotlight.
The Pectra upgrade introduces 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) aimed at strengthening Ethereum across three dimensions: scalability through layer-2s, user experience (UX), and staking efficiency.
Scalability remains Ethereum’s most persistent challenge, and critics argue that monolithic L1s would consistently outperform modular L2-based architectures. However, the UX and staking improvements in Pectra could have truly meaningful implications for Ethereum and ETH’s market dynamics.
The standout upgrade is EIP-7702, which allows externally owned accounts (regular user wallets) to temporarily act like smart contracts. This unlocks features such as fee sponsorship and gas payments in tokens other than Ether.
These enhancements could make Ethereum significantly more user-friendly, lowering entry barriers, enabling DApps to sponsor new users' gas fees, and improving wallet functionality with less friction. This is particularly relevant for onboarding non-technical users in gaming, payments, and mobile apps, which continue to face hurdles due to poor UX.
Another positive aspect is that the option to pay gas fees with tokens other than ETH won’t diminish ETH’s role in the network. At the protocol level, validators will continue to receive fees in ETH, while payment processors will have to convert the fee tokens into Ether.
On the staking side, EIPs 7251, 6110, and 7002 will also bring major changes. allow validators to hold up to 2,048 ETH instead of just 32, and significantly simplify validator onboarding and exits.
Validators will be able to stake up to 2,048 ETH instead of just 32, and the onboarding and exit processes will become more seamless. These changes are especially meaningful for institutional validators. As disappointed institutions are starting to sell their ETH holdings, this upgrade could stimulate renewed engagement from big players.
Ether’s price reflects the market’s expectations around its future demand, driven by its use to pay gas fees, and the dynamics of its supply. The Pectra upgrade is designed to strengthen both sides of that equation: increasing demand while reducing available supply.
On the demand side, a significantly improved user experience could attract mainstream users and developers, accelerating adoption and onchain activity.
On the supply side, streamlined and institution-friendly staking mechanisms may lead to more ETH being locked in validator nodes, tightening the circulating supply and potentially exerting upward pressure on price.
Furthermore, if more innovative wallet features fulfill their promise of driving user adoption, the increased transaction throughput will also accelerate ETH burning, reducing the supply even further.
Data shows Ethereum is currently experiencing one of its lowest burning periods ever, around 70 ETH per day, compared to 2,000 to 4,000 ETH in 2024. A resurgence in activity could push the burn rate higher, adding deflationary pressure that may support the price.
Related: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race
Pectra is set to add powerful features to Ethereum, but their impact may take time to materialize. In the meantime, the upgrade could provide the narrative Ether needs to regain market momentum.
Technically, the setup looks favorable. ETH appears to have already formed a local bottom, with the weekly RSI — often a reliable reverse signal — breaking out of its downtrend on April 20. .
This marks the end of a correction that lasted since December 2024 and wiped out as much as 66% of ETH’s value. A new uptrend could be underway, but could Pectra be its trigger?
Historically, Ethereum upgrades often coincided with short-lived price spikes that often failed to create momentum. In 2022, the Merge was overwhelmed by bear market sentiment. The Shapella in 2023, which enabled stake withdrawals, struggled to sustain momentum. The 2024 Dencun upgrade, which improved L2 integration, marked the end of the March rally.
However, the market cycle is now in its third year, just like in 2021, when Ethereum’s Berlin and London upgrades (improving gas pricing and introducing burning) helped fuel a major bull run. If history rhymes, Pectra could sync with the broader rally and mark Ethereum’s return to strength.
Looking ahead, the Fusaka hard fork scheduled for late 2025 could add further upside potential to Ether.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
What to know:
Altcoins have lagged Bitcoin year-to-date, but BNB price shows relative resilience, trading only 10% lower than the previous cycle’s all-time high.
BNB Chain shows a robust activity, consistently ranking third in daily transactions, active addresses, and TVL, while leading in the number of DApps.
The blockchain’s weakest point is its revenue, which still lags compared to competitors.
Altcoin price action has been underwhelming for much of the 2023-2026 cycle, pushing many crypto traders to focus primarily on Bitcoin. However, with moderate optimism returning to the markets, a closer look reveals that not all altcoins are struggling. In fact, the total altcoin market cap remains solidly above $1 trillion — $1.17 trillion, to be exact — and its 9% surge over the past week offers a glimmer of hope.
Among the major altcoins, BNB Chain (BNB) stands out for its relative strength and stability. Currently ranked as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, behind BTC, ETH, USDT, and XRP, BNB is valued at around $89 billion. Some analysts see it as one of the most resilient altcoins in the current cycle.
As João Wedson, the founder of Alphractal, pointed out, using data from the cryptocurrency drawdown heatmap:
“While most altcoins have suffered drops of up to -98.5% from their all-time highs, BNB stands out alongside BTC as one of the least affected cryptocurrencies — and more impressively, it's one of the few that has reached a new all-time high this cycle.”
For Wedson, this resilience isn't just about price action — it’s also backed by solid foundations, such as BNB Chain’s well-developed ecosystem and BNB’s rising role in DeFi. He calls BNB “one of the rare altcoins with real utility, strong fundamentals, and growing adoption, making it the strongest-performing altcoin alongside BTC.”
Looking solely at price performance among top smart contract platforms’ coins tells a more nuanced story. BNB has indeed reached a new all-time high during this cycle, but so have XRP (XRP), TRX (TRX), and SOL (SOL) — though in Solana's case, the new high barely surpassed its 2021 peak by just 1%.
When comparing current prices to their previous cycle highs (mostly from May or November 2021), BNB is now down only about 10%. That’s significantly better than ETH (ETH), which is down 63%, and Solana, down 40%. However, XRP (+19%) and TRX (+49%) have performed even better.
One of BNB’s monetary advantages lies in its low dilution risk. According to Messari’s Market Cap/Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) ratio, 96.51% of BNB’s supply is already in circulation. That’s in line with Ethereum (99.93%) and TRX (99.96%), indicating a relatively low risk of future token inflation. In contrast, Solana (86.33%) and especially XRP (58.33%) could face significant future dilution.
While BNB’s price performance has been relatively strong, it alone doesn't entirely justify its reputation for resilience; fundamentals offer deeper insight.
Beyond speculation, BNB’s value is defined by its use in BNB Chain — an umbrella term now used to define both BNB Smart Chain (the original blockchain) and the Beacon Chain (used for governance and staking). BNB Chain specializes in gaming, DeFi, launchpads, and other large-scale consumer DApps. More recently, it also got into the memecoins game, soaking up some of Solana’s volume. Being the key altcoin on the leading centralized exchange also helps.
According to Messari, BNB Chain processes around 4 million daily transactions on average, ahead of Ethereum (1 million), XRP Ledger (1.8 million), but behind Tron (5.5 million) and far behind Solana (54 million non-vote transactions daily).
In terms of daily active addresses, BNB Chain also performs well with about 1.1 million, beating Ethereum (384,800) and XRP Ledger (55,600), but trailing Tron (2.4 million) and Solana (3.7 million).
Where BNB Chain really shines is in the number of DApps. According to DappRadar, BNB Chain supports 5,686 DApps — more than Ethereum (4,987), with Polygon (2,402) trailing in third. This reinforces Wedson’s assertion of a “massive” BNB ecosystem and places BNB Chain in a strong position to lead the charge once Web3 fully matures.
BNB Chain also ranks 3rd in total value locked (TVL) in DeFi, with $5.8 billion, behind Ethereum ($50.5 billion) and Solana ($8 billion), according to DefiLlama. The blockchain seems to pay special attention to developing its DeFi activity. On March 24, its DEX trading volume even managed to briefly outpace all other blockchains, hitting a weekly total of $14.3 billion.
Related: ‘Vitalik: An Ethereum Story’ is less about crypto and more about being human
Blockchain revenue plays a crucial role in its long-term sustainability and growth. It is commonly assessed through the total transaction fees generated.
In 2024, Ethereum led the pack with $2.5 billion in fees, followed by Tron ($2.1 billion), Bitcoin ($923 million), and Solana ($751 million), according to CoinGecko. BNB Chain closed the top 5 with $194 million. Since XRP has little utility, its blockchain’s revenues were only $1.1 million.
So far in 2025, the revenue rankings are shifting, but BNB Chain remains 5th. In the past 30 days, Tron has taken the lead with $272 million in fees, followed by Solana ($34.7 million), Ethereum ($20.8 million), and BNB Chain ($17.1 million), per Messari data.
Overall, while BNB may not always top the charts across every metric, it consistently holds a respectable third place among the leading smart contract platforms. Its healthy activity metrics contribute to maintaining relative price stability within the sector.
The blockchain’s revenue remains its weakest point compared to competitors. However, if the promise of Web3 is realized and adoption accelerates, BNB Chain’s dominance in the DApp space could become its biggest strength.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Opinion by: Steven Smith, head of protocol and applied research, Tools for Humanity
Blockchains were designed as systems of trust that are transparent, decentralized and accessible. The age of AI has, however, introduced significant new challenges. Nearly half of all internet traffic is generated by bots, with up to 80% of blockchain transactions now automated and AI agents accounting for most onchain activity.
While some bots serve legitimate and helpful purposes, others — like those used for airdrop farming and fake account creation — clog networks, drive up fees, and monopolize space and resources.
It’s up to humans to protect the blockchains we know and love, ensuring that people aren’t unfairly disadvantaged by automated systems, insulated from the effect of maximal extractable value attacks and exploits, and free from the need to pay significant gas fees to be included in a block.
AI bots are becoming more integral to networks and capable of more sophisticated exploits, dominating trading volumes, driving up gas fees, and manipulating decentralized finance (DeFi) markets.
In some cases, networks have seen failure rates surge past 75% due to bot-induced congestion. Even Ethereum’s mempool is increasingly flooded with automated transactions, forcing human users to compete for scarce block space.
The problem extends beyond blockchain networks — it’s affecting the entire economy. AI-powered bots are set to disrupt traditional banking and financial services, threatening the very foundations of how money is managed and transactions are conducted.
It’s only a matter of time before bad actors begin deploying new AI-driven fraud tools at scale, creating an unprecedented security nightmare for financial institutions, businesses and users alike.
This has already begun. AI-driven botnets fueled a 55% surge in distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against the banking and financial services industry during 2024.
If action isn’t taken, humans risk ceding control of both decentralized and traditional financial systems to automated systems optimized for speed and scale — not fairness or accessibility.
So far, the response to these issues has focused on scalability. Layer-2 solutions, rollups and high-performance execution clients make transactions faster and cheaper.
Scaling without a focus on human users, however, leads to unintended consequences. Lower fees mean attackers can cause much grief for little cost, and bots can flood networks more easily. Meanwhile, faster transactions mean AI traders can outcompete human investors even faster.
Recent: Don't be afraid of quantum computers
This has played out repeatedly already. A spam attack on Zcash severely disrupted its blockchain. During its token launch, Manta Network suffered a DDoS attack, slowing withdrawals and frustrating users. On Ethereum, bots have been used to manipulate gas prices during high-traffic periods, resulting in delayed transactions and higher transaction fees for real humans.
While scalability is critical, it’s equally important to prioritize another fundamental element of blockchain design: proof-of-human.
Proof-of-human infrastructure is a mechanism that digitally verifies a person’s humanness and uniqueness. This is key to keeping control of blockchain systems in human hands, giving real people the power to ensure blockchains don’t become automated playgrounds for bots — especially as AI agents continue to scale.
Proof-of-human systems ensure blockchain architecture evolves with a human-first approach. Networks should allocate guaranteed block space for verified human users, ensuring that automated trading bots don’t push out essential transactions.
Introducing gas subsidies for human users can also prevent them from being priced out during periods of extreme network congestion. Optimized execution clients can enhance efficiency while implementing safeguards against bot-driven spam.
Blockchain architecture has made remarkable strides in scalability, interoperability and security. We also still need to ensure positive experiences for humans. As an industry, it’s fundamental to provide the ability to distinguish between real people and bots online to ensure the sector can continue to grow in the long run.
The choice is ours. We can allow unproductive bots to take over our networks, pushing out human users and undermining the core promise of decentralization. Or, we can implement the necessary parameters to keep blockchains human-centric and ensure greater control over productive bots, ensuring fairer access, security and sustainability.
Now is the time to act. The future of blockchain and bringing more humans onchain depend on it.
Opinion by: Steven Smith, head of protocol and applied research, Tools for Humanity.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin (BTC) price surged over the Easter weekend, jumping 9% and crossing the $91,000 threshold on April 22. This strong performance diverged sharply from the stock market’s lukewarm rebound and mirrored gold’s bullish behavior, which briefly touched a new all-time high of $3,500.
While the BTC rally and its growing decoupling from equities are noteworthy, it's the derivatives market that offers an even more bullish signal.
According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin open interest (OI) soared by 17%, reaching a 2-month high at $68.3. OI measures the total capital invested in BTC derivatives, and such an uptick shows a growing bullish sentiment among traders.
The market is currently in contango — a situation where futures prices (notably CME Bitcoin futures) are higher than the spot price. This typically occurs because investors anticipate rising prices and take advantage of leverage tools offered by exchanges, allowing them to gain greater exposure through futures than they could with direct spot purchases.
This raises two questions: Who is buying, and why?
A key metric for understanding investor composition is the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index. It measures the percentage price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro (BTC/USD) and Binance (BTC/USDT). Since Coinbase Pro caters predominantly to US-based institutional investors, while Binance has a broader global retail audience, this premium can indicate where the buying pressure is coming from.
While the first half of April showed strong retail dominance, April 21–22 saw institutional demand kick in, with the Coinbase premium rising to 0.16%, per CoinGlass.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy could be among those buyers. On April 21, Saylor announced the acquisition of 6,556 more BTC for approximately $555.8 million at an average price of ~$84,785 per coin. This brings MicroStrategy’s total holdings to an eye-watering 538,200 BTC, worth approximately $48.4 billion at current prices.
On a smaller scale, Japan-based Metaplanet also added 330 BTC to its treasury, pushing its total to 4,855 BTC, the company’s CEO announced on the same day.
Meanwhile, investors who favor traditional financial instruments over direct Bitcoin holding have also begun to renew their interest. According to the CoinGlass data, on April 21, BTC ETFs recorded $381 million in inflows — a much-needed reversal after a prolonged period of heavy outflows. Since February, ETFs had suffered 33 days of net outflows versus just 21 days of inflows, with outflows strongly dominating in volume. The recent reversal suggests renewed confidence, particularly from TradFi-aligned investors.
Related: Bitcoin risks 10%-15% BTC price dip after key rejection near $89K
Since tariff fears took grip of the market, institutional investors have kept Bitcoin and equities at arm’s length, but something shifted over the Easter weekend.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin has decisively broken out of its multimonth downtrend
“The multimonth downtrend is over. And when a technical downtrend is broken, technical uptrends emerge.”
Another, more macroeconomic, factor may be the increasing tension between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Their growing rift, centered on concerns about inflationary pressure from tariffs and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates, has cast a shadow over the US dollar.
The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar’s value against a basket of currencies, has been in freefall since February, reaching lows last seen in 2022. Trump’s public pressure on Powell, and speculation that he might attempt to remove him or other Fed officials, is fueling anxiety over the Fed’s independence — a foundational pillar of the US financial system.
The potential consequences of a falling dollar for the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is clear: Bitcoin stands poised to be a major beneficiary. A decentralized, censorship-resistant money governed solely by code, with a fixed supply schedule and no central authority to manipulate its issuance. As confidence in traditional monetary systems continues to erode, Bitcoin’s narrative grows ever stronger.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on its price action. After making a strong bounce from the local bottom near $75,000 on April 7 and 9, analysts are beginning to question whether BTC could be gearing up for a reversal of the downward trend that’s persisted since the start of the year.
For some, like the veteran trader Peter Brandt, this trendline is nothing but hopium. As he noted in his X post,
“Of all chart construction, trendlines are the LEAST significant. A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of the BTC trend. Sorry.”
Others, however, see more reason for cautious optimism. Analyst Kevin Svenson highlighted a possible weekly RSI breakout, pointing out that “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators.”
Ultimately, price is driven by supply and demand—and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout. Furthermore, the bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand — measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows — is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory.
However, the analysts caution against prematurely declaring a trend reversal. Looking back to the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred: demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery only followed extended consolidation.
This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure—not a definitive bottom sign. Time and confirmation are still needed to confirm a shifting momentum.
From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), according to CryptoQuant. This is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle. Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite.
Institutional investors confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the spot BTC ETFs have recorded continuous outflows totaling over $870 million, with the first modest inflow not occurring until April 15. Despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — indicating that some investor appetite for Bitcoin persists.
Related: Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase
On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% previously). This points to a continued lack of meaningful new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode notes, “remains well below typical bull market thresholds.”
Furthermore, the BTC balance on exchanges — often used to gauge available sell-side liquidity — has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018.
Yet, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts see reasons for cautious hope. Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag (here 12 weeks), has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past.
“If the correlation remains, he wrote, then I assume that we'll see Bitcoin rally to an ATH in this quarter. This would also imply a rise in CNH/USD, a fall in Yields, a fall in Gold, a fall in DXY, and a rise in Altcoins.”
Even if bullish momentum and demand returns, Bitcoin will need to clear a critical resistance zone between $86,300 and $86,500, as shown on CoinGlass’ liquidity heatmap, which maps dense clusters of buy and sell orders at different levels.
Alphractal adds another layer of insight through its Alpha Price Chart, which incorporates realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment — and comes to the same conclusion. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.
Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. Still, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A decisive breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA. Historically associated with trend reversals and long bearish trading periods, this ominous signal has sometimes preceded major market drawdowns.
The latest death cross comes amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Equities are reeling from what appears to be the early stages of a tariff war, volatility is rising, and fear continues to dominate investor sentiment. For some investors, Bitcoin’s death cross could be the final blow to hopes of a near-term rally. Early signs of capitulation from short-term holders may already be emerging.
Still, not everyone sees doom ahead.
By definition, a death cross confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day MA, it suggests recent price action has weakened relative to the longer-term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens — often heralding a new rally.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced 10 such death crosses, with the 11th unfolding right now. Analyzing their dates and durations gives a major insight: every bear market included a death cross, but not every death cross has led to a bear market. This distinction is key to understanding the current setup.
BTC/USD 1-day death cross history (log). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView
Indeed, there are two types of death crosses: those that happen during bear markets and the rest. The three death crosses that formed during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted for 9 to 13 months and saw drawdowns between 55% and 68% from the day of the cross to the cycle bottom.
The remaining seven were far less severe. They lasted from 1.5 months to 3.5 months and saw Bitcoin decline anywhere from 27% to nothing at all. In many cases, these signals marked local bottoms and were followed by renewed rallies.
This brings us to the critical question: Is Bitcoin already in a bear market, or is this another bear trap?
If Bitcoin is indeed in bear territory, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes, the current death cross could signal 6 to 12 more months of downward price action. This outlook aligns with his observations of the difference between the current market cap and the realized cap (average cost basis for each wallet x amount of BTC held).
“If Realized Cap is growing, but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t rising—a classic bearish signal.”
Current data clearly points to the latter, Ki Young Ju adds.
“Sell pressure could ease anytime, but historically, real reversals take at least six months—so a short-term rally seems unlikely.”
BTC growth rate difference. Source: CryptoQuant
Other market participants disregard the presence of the death cross. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto argued that the current death cross is a setup for a rally rather than a slide. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hated rally of 2025!” he posted alongside a chart showing previous false signals of this cycle.
Bitcoin death cross during the bull market. Source: Mister Crypto
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill also downplayed the signal’s significance. As he put it,
“For those of you that think the Bitcoin death cross means anything - empirically, it's total nonsense, and in fact, often a good buying opportunity.”
Butterfill’s data shows that, on average, Bitcoin prices are only slightly lower one month after a death cross (-3.2%) and often higher three months out.
Related: Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar
Interestingly, Bitcoin isn’t the only asset flashing warning signs. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death crosses, while individual tech stocks — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — have already triggered them or are close to doing so.
Bitcoin’s recent move is part of a larger market reset, for better or for worse. At the moment, however, it leans more toward the "worse" side: as some analysts point out, what’s bad for the Nasdaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin, too. Unless, of course, Bitcoin fully claims its role as digital gold.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle, anchored around its halving events, is widely recognized as a key factor in BTC’s year-over-year price growth. Within this larger framework, traders have come to expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic rallies, and eventual crashes.
Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behavior of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.
Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. Typically wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops.
According to recent data from Glassnode, long-term holders distributed over 2 million BTC in two distinct waves during the current cycle. Both waves were followed by strong reaccumulation, which helped absorb sell-side pressure and contributed to a more stable price structure. Currently, long-term Bitcoin holders are in the new accumulation period. Since mid-February, this cohort’s wealth increased sharply by almost 363,000 BTC.
Total BTC supply held by long-term holders. Source: Glassnode
Another cohort of Bitcoin holders often seen as more seasoned than the average market participant are whales—addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. Many of them are also long-term holders. At the top of this group are the mega-whales holding more than 10,000 BTC. Currently, there are 93 such addresses, according to BitInfoCharts, and their recent activity points to ongoing accumulation.
Glassnode data shows that large whales briefly reached a perfect accumulation score (~1.0) in early April, indicating intense buying over a 15-day period. The score has since eased to ~0.65 but still reflects consistent accumulation. These large holders appear to be buying from smaller cohorts—specifically wallets with less than 1 BTC and those with under 100 BTC—whose accumulation scores have dipped toward 0.1–0.2.
This divergence signals growing distribution from retail to large holders and marks potential for future price support (whales tend to hold long-time). Oftentimes, it also precedes bullish periods.
The last time mega-whales hit a perfect accumulation score was in August 2024, when Bitcoin was trading near $60,000. Two months later, BTC raced to $108,000.
BTC trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Glassnode
Short-term holders, usually defined as those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months, behave differently. They're more prone to selling during corrections or periods of uncertainty.
This behavior also follows a pattern. Glassnode data shows that spending levels tend to rise and fall approximately every 8 to 12 months.
Currently, short-term holders’ spending activity is at a historically low point despite the turbulent macro environment. This suggests that so far, many newer Bitcoin buyers are choosing to hold rather than panic-sell. However, if the Bitcoin price drops further, short-term holders may be the first to sell, potentially accelerating the decline.
BTC short-term holders’ spending activity. Source: Glassnode
Markets are driven by people. Emotions like fear, greed, denial, and euphoria don’t just influence individual decisions — they shape entire market moves. This is why we often see familiar patterns: bubbles inflate as greed takes hold, then collapse under the weight of panic selling.
CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index illustrates this rhythm well. This metric, based on several market indicators, typically cycles every 3 to 5 months, swinging from neutral to either greed or fear.
Since February, market sentiment has remained in the fear and extreme fear territory, now worsened by US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the collapse in global stock market prices. However, human psychology is cyclical, and the market might see a potential return to a “neutral” sentiment within the next 1-3 months.
Fear & Greed Index chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of market cycles is how they can become self-fulfilling. When enough people believe in a pattern, they start acting on it, taking profits at expected peaks and buying dips at expected bottoms. This collective behavior reinforces the cycle and adds to its persistence.
Bitcoin is a prime example. Its cycles may not run on precise schedules, but they rhyme consistently enough to shape expectations — and, in turn, influence reality.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Hyperliquid is one of the current bull market’s standout DeFi success stories. With daily trading volumes having reached $4 billion, the exchange has become the largest decentralized (DEX) derivatives platform, commanding nearly 60% of the market.
Hyperliquid still lags far behind Binance Futures’ $50 billion daily average volume, but the trend suggests that it has started to encroach on centralized exchange (CEX) territory.
Launched in 2023, Hyperliquid gained popularity in April 2024 after launching spot trading. This, combined with its aggressive listing strategy and easy-to-use onchain user interface, helped to lure in a wave of new users.
The platform’s real explosion, however, came in November 2024, following the launch of its HYPE (HYPE) token. Hyperliquid’s trading volume skyrocketed, and it now boasts over 400,000 users and more than 50 billion trades processed, according to data from Dune.
Hyperliquid cumulative trades and users. Source: Dune
While Hyperliquid started as a high-performance perpetual futures and spot DEX, its ambitions have since expanded. With the launch of HyperEVM on Feb. 18, the project has become a general-purpose layer-1 chain capable of supporting third-party DeFi apps built on top of its infrastructure.
As one of Hyperliquid’s founders, Jeff Yan, put it,
“Most L1s build infrastructure and hope that others will come build the killer apps. Hyperliquid takes the opposite approach: polish a native application and then grow into general-purpose infrastructure.”
If this approach works, the liquidity driven by Hyperliquid’s core DEX could naturally feed into the broader ecosystem and vice versa, creating a flywheel effect.
Related: Hyperliquid flips Solana in fees, but is the ‘HYPE’ justified?
According to CoinGecko, Hyperliquid now ranks 14th among derivatives exchanges by open interest, sitting at $3.1 billion. That’s still behind Binance’s $22 billion but ahead of older names like Deribit or derivatives divisions of Crypto.com, BitMEX, or KuCoin. It’s the first time a DEX is competing so closely with established CEXs.
Furthermore, as Hyperliquid deepens its focus on specialized trading pairs, it continues to chip away at the market share of major exchanges. The DEX accepts not only Arbitrum USDC as collateral but also native BTC. This makes it one of the few decentralized platforms that handle BTC wrapping and unwrapping natively, giving users the option to use BTC for Web3-wallet-based trading.
X user Skewga.hl noted that Hyperliquid’s BTC perpetual futures volume share recently hit an all-time high, reaching almost 50% of Bybit’s and 21% of Binance’s. Skewga.hl wrote,
“No DEX has ever come this close to matching Tier 1 CEX volume.”
Daily volume ratios, Hyperliquid vs Other exchanges (BTC perp). Source: Skewga.hl
Since 2024, perpetual swaps have seen a revival as a trading tool. During the 2021–2022 bull market, daily perps volume averaged around $5 billion. In early 2025, that number often exceeded $15 billion, with Hyperliquid accounting for nearly two-thirds of it.
Data from DefiLlama illustrates the shift: while dYdX (green) dominated in 2023–2024, the landscape diversified significantly in 2024—and by 2025, Hyperliquid (pink) had taken the lead.
Perps volume breakdown. Source: DefiLlama
Despite the recent JELLY token scandal, which involved the exchange halting trading and delisting a low-market-cap token that a whale had exploited, Hyperliquid remains a popular exchange among DeFi and DEX traders. It has yet to capture institutional investor flows or scale to the level of top-tier CEXs. However, if its layer 1 ecosystem gains traction with developers, Hyperliquid could evolve into more than just a leading DEX.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
April 2 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in global trade policy. US President Donald Trump has dubbed it “Liberation Day,” in reference to when new tariffs — exceeding 20%— will hit imports from over 25 countries. According to The Wall Street Journal, the administration is also weighing “broader and higher tariffs” beyond this initial wave, meaning that April 2nd is unlikely to be the end of economic uncertainty.
Markets reacted negatively over the past week, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 slid 5%, underscoring investor anxiety. At the same time, gold surged 4%, reaching a record high above $3,150 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 4.2%, even as recent inflation data showed an uptick in some of the core components.
The markets’ is a classic sign of a risk-off environment—one that often precedes economic contraction.
Throughout the volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 6%—relatively modest compared to its historical volatility, but this does not make it a reliable hedge just yet, although its growing role as a reserve asset suggests this could shift over time.
In periods of macroeconomic and geopolitical instability, investors typically seek yield-bearing and historically stable assets. Both US government bonds’ decreasing yield and gold prices’ increase signal an increasing demand for these types of assets.
Gold is having a standout moment. Over the past two months, gold funds have attracted more than $12 billion in net inflows, according to Bloomberg — marking the largest surge of capital into the asset since 2020.
Gold funds monthly inflows. Source: Bloomberg
Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have been up nearly +17%, while the S&P 500 has been down 5%. This shows a precarious state of the economy, further confirmed by a sharp drop in the US consumer sentiment, which has fallen around 20 points to reach levels not seen since 2008. In March, just 37.4% of Americans expected stock prices to rise over the next year—down nearly 10 points from February and 20 points below the peak in November 2024.
As The Kobeissi Letter put it:
“An economic slowdown has clearly begun.”
A Matrixport chart shows that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is now 70% correlated with the Nasdaq 100—a level reached only twice before. This suggests that macro forces are still shaping Bitcoin's short-term moves, much like tech stocks.
IBIT BTC ETF vs Nasdaq - 30-day correlation. Source: Matrixport
The ETF data supports this trend. After a strong week of inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $93 million on March 28, according to CoinGlass. The total Bitcoin ETP assets under management have dropped to $114.5 billion, the lowest in 2025.
The numbers show that Bitcoin is still perceived more as a speculative tech proxy and is yet to enter a new phase of market behavior. However, some signs of this potential transition are already apparent.
Related: Worst Q1 for BTC price since 2018: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Beneath the volatility, a structural shift is underway. Companies are increasingly using Bitcoin and its ETFs to diversify their balance sheets.
According to Tipranks, 80.8% of BlackRock’s IBIT shares are owned by public companies and individual investors. Furthermore, in Feb. 2025, BlackRock incorporated a 1% to 2% allocation of IBIT into its target allocation portfolios, reflecting growing institutional adoption.
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows that publicly listed companies currently hold 665,618 BTC, and private firms hold 424,130 BTC. Together, that’s 1,089,748 BTC — roughly 5.5% of the total supply (excluding lost coins). These figures underscore the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. What’s more, some experts predict that holding BTC in corporate treasury will become a standard practice by the end of the decade.
Elliot Chun, a partner at the crypto-focused M&A firm Architect Partners, said in a March 28 blog post:
“I anticipate that by 2030, a quarter of the S&P 500 will have BTC somewhere on their balance sheets as a long-term asset.”
The character of any asset is defined by the attitude of those who own it. As more corporations adopt Bitcoin for treasury diversification—and as sovereign entities begin experimenting with Bitcoin reserves—the cryptocurrency's profile is shifting. The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, as imperfect as it is, contributes to this trend.
It’s too early to call Bitcoin a full-fledged hedge. Its price is still primarily driven by short-term speculation. But the transition is underway. As adoption grows across countries, companies, and individuals, Bitcoin’s volatility will likely decrease, and its utility as a partial hedge will increase.
For now, the safe haven label may be aspirational. But if current trends continue, it might not be for long.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Few things in crypto are as elusive and misunderstood as the concept of an “altcoin season.” Traditionally, this term referred to a brief window — usually 2–3 months — following a Bitcoin (BTC) price rally, where altcoins outperform BTC in cumulative returns. That pattern held in the 2015–2018 and 2019–2022 cycles, but the verdict is not yet in on whether the current bull market has had its altcoin season.
The Blockchain Center defines an altcoin season as a period when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day time frame. Its Altseason Index registered upticks in March 2024 and again in January 2025 — but neither lasted long enough to qualify as a full-fledged altseason.
Altcoin season index. Source: Blockchain Center
Some analysts argue that memecoins drained liquidity from the broader altcoin market. Others blame the oversaturation of crypto investment products — particularly ETFs — which cater to institutions and spotlight only the largest altcoins.
A third explanation calls for a deeper rethink of what altcoins actually are. Within this view, altcoins are perceived as a unified asset class but are a diverse collection of crypto assets with different functions, value structures, and growth potential.
For the crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, the launch of Pump.fun is directly correlated to the destruction of the altcoin market vs. BTC.
“The reason we’ve seen no major “altseason” across majors is because the speculative capital that would’ve once poured into top 200 assets, instead decided to jump the gun and flood into onchain low caps instead.”
Deutscher notes that the early birds and insiders got insanely rich from this, but most retail investors who entered late lost. This was also the case in previous altcoin cycles.
However, unlike 2022, where the losses were mainly limited to CEX altcoins with solid liquidity, they got stuck into illiquid onchain memecoins, which quickly retraced 70%-80%. This led to a “wealth destruction event greater than the early 2022 bear (LUNA aside),” even though BTC (and some majors) are still in a macro bull trend.
Solana TVL vs Top 125 Alts (excl. Top 10). Source: Miles Deutscher
Politics in the United States added fuel to the memecoin craze. For example, President Donald Trump’s public embrace of memecoins sparked momentum — but the results quickly disappointed. TRUMP and MELANIA tokens have dropped 83% and 95%, respectively, since launching at the end of January, delivering another hit to retail sentiment.
Related: Will new US SEC rules bring crypto companies onshore?
Another factor impacting the strength of the current bull market’s altcoin season was the arrival of Wall Street. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 brought $129 billion in inflows as investors rushed into familiar structures with custody, regulation, and easy access. BlackRock’s IBIT became a dominant vehicle, and the introduction of ETF options in July 2024 added even more depth.
Some analysts believe that the safety and scalability of spot BTC ETFs sucked capital away from speculative assets. With the ability to hedge through options and futures, the incentive to gamble on illiquid, low-volume altcoins diminishes significantly.
But this explanation has limits. Crypto is not a zero-sum market — global liquidity is growing, and capital entering the space can flow in many directions. If anything, institutional demand could expand the total crypto pie.
Furthermore, some altcoins already have their ETFs as well. Spot Ether ETFs debuted in July 2024 and have since registered a modest net inflow of $565,000, according to CoinGlass. Such a drastic difference in scale with spot BTC ETFs suggests that the ETF structure alone isn’t enough; investor conviction still matters.
The term “altcoin” emerged when any non-Bitcoin token was novel. But in today’s ecosystem, the term lumps together wildly different assets: blockchain-native coins, governance tokens, stablecoins, memecoins, DApp tokens, and real-world asset protocol tokens — each with distinct functions and investor profiles.
Just as it wouldn’t make sense to group gold, Nvidia stock, and the US dollar into a single index in traditional finance, it makes little sense to treat all altcoins as one unified category.
A closer look at price action supports this idea. According to CoinGecko data, major altcoin categories have diverged sharply this cycle. Real-world asset (RWA) tokens surged 15x. GameFi, by contrast, lost half its market cap. This shows that narratives play a growing role in driving investors’ capital allocation decisions.
Crypto categories market cap. Source: CoinGecko
Even core blockchain tokens have started to specialize. Ethereum remains the hub for DeFi. Solana dominates memecoins. Tron now holds second place in stablecoin transfers. ImmutableX is carving out its territory in the gaming space.
In each case, token performance is increasingly tied to ecosystem activity. This means that we might want to abandon the term “altseason” and start to pay more attention to specific narratives within the crypto space.
Altcoins aren’t moving as a pack anymore, and that might be the biggest signal of how the crypto market is maturing.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
