Crypto holders relied more on loans backed by digital assets as market conditions weakened in 2026, according to research from CryptoQuant.

The report analyzed data from crypto lender CoinRabbit. It found higher borrowing activity among both retail and high-net-worth users.

Borrowing Activity Rises

Crypto-backed loans allow holders to access cash without immediately selling their digital assets. Borrowers usually pledge more collateral than they receive, but falling prices can trigger liquidation or require more collateral.

According to the report, retail users recorded the biggest change in borrowing activity during the period. Their average number of loans rose 74%, from 30.8 per user in 2025 to 53.5 in 2026, while high-net-worth users rose 18%, from 16.5 to 19.4.

Repeat borrowing also became more common across the platform. The share of users taking multiple loans increased from 61.9% to 65.1%. Retail borrowers waited an average of 21 days between loans, compared with 11 days previously.

Beyond borrowing activity, collateral preferences also shifted, particularly among wealthier users.  Bitcoin’s share of pledged assets among high-net-worth users fell from 57.8% to 30.5%, while Zcash reached 24.2% after not appearing among the previous top 10.

CryptoQuant linked part of Zcash’s rise in collateral use to its sharp price rally. Zcash climbed from about $50 in late 2025 toward $800, while Monero, Chainlink and Cardano also gained larger shares among high-net-worth collateral.

Shifting Asset Preferences

Retail users continued to rely heavily on XRP as collateral during the period. However, its share fell from 41.7% to 35.2%, while Bitcoin remained close behind. TRON, Stellar, BNB, Kaspa, and Velo also entered the mix.

Meanwhile, the assets users traded most frequently changed during the period as market conditions shifted. Tether and Bitcoin remained the two largest assets by volume, while USD Coin moved into third place. Flare, Ether, and Ondo also entered the top 10.

Solana, Stellar, and Shiba Inu dropped out of the top 10 by trading volume. Together, these changes show that users adjusted both their borrowing and asset preferences during the weaker market period.

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Bitcoin’s August rally is facing a tougher test as fresh ETF demand meets growing expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy. The cryptocurrency is holding above $77,100, but its next move may hinge on whether fresh liquidity can offset rising rate risks, according to Bitfinex Alpha.

This tension was evident in Bitcoin’s recent price action. Bitcoin closed above $80,000 on August 27 for the first time since May, ending at $80,256 after briefly reaching $81,500. It later fell to $76,857 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks pushed markets to reassess the outlook for U.S. rates.

Bitcoin Holds Up Despite Rate Fears

The pullback came as markets raised the implied probability of a September rate increase from the mid-30% range to about 60%. Warsh also stressed the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target and suggested that monetary policy may not yet be restrictive enough.

Despite the shift in rate expectations, Bitcoin showed some resilience. It closed Friday only about 3% lower and remained above previous range highs through the weekend. Bitfinex identified $77,100 as an important volume-node support level after it helped define the cryptocurrency’s August breakout.

Continued ETF demand may have helped support that resilience. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $924.5 million in net inflows last week despite $202 million leaving the products on Friday. The funds had attracted $3.04 billion during the previous nine sessions, showing continued demand despite shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy.

Beyond ETFs, stablecoin liquidity also remains relevant to the broader crypto market because it can provide capital for digital assets. However, the Bitfinex report points more directly to ETF demand as a key driver of Bitcoin’s current liquidity conditions.

Market Positioning Remains Stable

Bitcoin’s derivatives market has remained relatively controlled during the rally, according to the report. Perpetual futures open interest reached $55.6 billion, about 20% above the start of August, while funding rates and futures basis remained contained.

Meanwhile, on-chain data points to a shift in Bitcoin ownership. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have reduced their balances by about 50,500 BTC since late June, while exchange and ETF custodial wallets have added roughly 59,100 BTC.

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Bitcoin (BTC) has risen about 26% from its mid-August low after a short-liquidation event accelerated the rebound. Glassnode said the August 19 move produced the largest one-day liquidation event since 2019.

Short positions accounted for most of the liquidations across the major centralized exchanges. The actual total was likely higher because the dataset excludes Hyperliquid.

ETF Demand and Large Holders Add Support

The squeeze cleared much of the liquidation liquidity around Bitcoin. Glassnode now sees short-liquidation levels above the market and a smaller pool of long-liquidation levels below.

The rebound was not driven only by forced closures, as spot demand also supported the move. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.23 billion of net inflows over seven days, with no outflow days and their strongest weekly intake of 2026. The period included the largest ETF creation session since mid-January.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued moving away from exchanges as wallet groups changed their holdings. Entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC reduced their balances by 50,500 BTC since June 30.

In contrast, entities holding more than 100,000 BTC added 59,100 BTC. This group includes exchanges, custodians and ETF-related wallets.

During the squeeze week, the custody group added 31,500 BTC. Glassnode said the amount was similar in scale to weekly ETF creations, but the data does not show that the same coins moved directly into ETFs.

Every wallet-size cohort also moved into net accumulation on Glassnode’s 30-day trend score. The firm called it the most persistent all-cohort buying since late 2024.

Bitcoin Now Faces a Tougher Test

Leverage has not returned at the same pace as Bitcoin’s price, with futures open interest falling 11% in BTC terms. Perpetual funding remained near neutral and later turned negative, suggesting limited pressure from new leveraged long positions.

Beyond accumulation and leverage, on-chain data places recent buyers beneath price, while long-term holders provide the main supply zone above it. Bitcoin is now trading between these groups, creating a key market test for demand.

Several indicators point to a similar supply area overhead, including cost-basis levels, ask liquidity, options positioning and remaining liquidation clusters. A sustained move through that zone would show whether buyers can absorb the available supply.

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Bitcoin’s latest rally appears to be driven partly by short covering rather than fresh leveraged positions, according to QCP Research. Open interest has fallen as BTC advanced, while strong spot ETF inflows have provided additional demand, the firm noted.

Spot demand is also strengthening, with QCP noting that ETF inflows are nearing the 95th percentile of the past year. However, the firm warned that the rally could become more fragile if short covering loses momentum and new demand does not replace it.

Strategy Raises Cash Without Adding Bitcoin

The market structure comes as Strategy raised more than $1.9 billion without adding Bitcoin to its holdings. The company reported 840,447 BTC for a second consecutive week, leaving its BTC reserve unchanged.

Strategy raised $2.01 billion through an at-the-market equity sale between August 17 and 23. It also built a $1.59 billion flexible cash reserve, bringing its total dollar assets to $6.69 billion.

The latest financing points to liquidity management rather than immediate accumulation. Strategy’s average purchase price remains $75,385 per BTC, with QCP viewing its cash reserve as support for preferred stock and post-dilution flexibility.

Macro Signals Keep Markets on Edge

Broader macroeconomic signals have also added uncertainty to the market. Minutes from the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed a 9-3 vote, with three officials preferring a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Attention now turns to Kevin Warsh’s appearance at Jackson Hole on Friday, although no specific policy guidance has been promised. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also announced plans to double the maximum size of long-term Treasury buybacks to $4 billion per operation from September 9.

The announcement pushed Treasury yields lower and the US dollar to a three-month low. QCP called the buyback plan a liquidity overlay, while the weaker dollar and elevated long-term yields could support Bitcoin and gold amid ongoing fiscal concerns.

Energy markets add another layer of uncertainty. Tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are raising supply concerns as tanker crossings decline and reserves fall below 300 million barrels.

With jobless claims due Thursday and Warsh speaking Friday, several near-term catalysts remain in focus. Bitcoin could remain range-bound into the September Federal Reserve meeting as markets assess whether current demand can sustain the rally.

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A bizarre error that mistakenly credited Bithumb customers with roughly 620,000 BTC is now producing victories for the South Korean exchange in court.

The Seoul Central District Court has ordered one customer to return about $140,400 (194 million won) after they sold BTC mistakenly credited to their account. The court ruled Thursday that the proceeds constituted unjust enrichment.

Specifically, the ruling concerns the cash from those sales, not any Bitcoin the customer may still hold. The exchange filed the claim in March to recover the money linked to the February error.

How the Bitcoin Credit Error Happened

The case is Bithumb’s second court victory in two days after the same court awarded it $3,620 (5 million won) on Wednesday. Two other claims remain pending, involving $10,700 (14.8 million won) and $362,000 (500 million won).

Together, the four claims total about $517,000 (714 million won), with some filings served by public notice. Thursday’s ruling resolves only one part of a broader recovery effort stemming from the February 6 error.

That error occurred during a random-box promotion for small cash prizes. A staff member entered Bitcoin instead of Korean won, causing internal records to show roughly 620,000 BTC across hundreds of accounts.

Notably, the figure was far above Bithumb’s actual holdings of about 40,000 BTC. Trading continued for roughly 40 minutes, with about 1,788 BTC reaching the order book before the exchange halted activity.

Recovery and Regulatory Fallout

The miscredit sent the BTC/KRW pair down about 17%. The exchange reversed most of the false credits that day and said by March 10 that it had recovered 99.7% of the Bitcoin involved in the broader miscredit. It later sought to freeze a few outstanding coins, while some affected traders received 110% compensation.

The incident also drew scrutiny from South Korean regulators, who treated it as a control failure and began an emergency review the next day. Financial regulators examined the case, while lawmakers opened an urgent inquiry.

That review led to wider concerns about how exchanges handle mistaken balances. The Financial Supervisory Service said the balances could qualify as unjust enrichment, supporting Bithumb’s recovery efforts. Authorities later required licensed exchanges to reconcile customer ledgers with actual holdings every five minutes, while the Bank of Korea considered a market circuit breaker.

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Bitcoin (BTC) may be entering a new bull-market phase, as several valuation, demand, and liquidity indicators have turned higher, according to CryptoQuant. The analytics firm outlined the shift in a research note published August 25, but said Bitcoin still needs further confirmation.

The assessment comes as BTC has also shown renewed price strength. The cryptocurrency climbed about 24% from August 17 and reached $80,000, its highest level since mid-May.

Bitcoin Rally Gains Broader Support

The rally came amid plans by the US Treasury to raise long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9. It also followed comments from President Donald Trump about possible federal Bitcoin purchases.

These developments coincided with a sharp improvement in CryptoQuant’s market indicators. The firm’s Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 during the week, its strongest reading since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin traded close to $124,000. Eight of its ten underlying indicators are now in bullish territory.

Demand conditions further supported the shift, with apparent spot demand expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December. Spot and futures demand rose together for the first time since early October 2025, pointing to broader market participation.

Confirmation Depends on Key Level

CryptoQuant described these developments as the early stage of a new bull cycle. However, it said Bitcoin needs a daily close above its 365-day moving average for confirmation. That average currently stands near $83,000, leaving Bitcoin below an important technical threshold despite the recent move.

Despite the bullish signals, the report also identified factors that could create short-term pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Trader unrealized profit margins reached 20.5%, their highest level since June 2025. At the same time, large holders realized a record $614 million in profits on August 20.

Signs of potential selling were also visible in exchange flows. CryptoQuant observed higher Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP deposits on exchanges, which can signal that some holders are preparing to sell. The data does not guarantee a market decline, but it suggests profit-taking could become more significant if prices struggle above key resistance levels.

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Bitcoin (BTC) broke higher last week, ending a multi-month range and closing near $77,700. The move followed a $62,750 weekly low, marking a nearly 24% rise as the leading cryptocurrency topped $71,000 on August 20.

The rally came despite August’s historically weak performance for Bitcoin, according to the Bitfinex Alpha report. The report noted that August has typically delivered negative median returns, making last week’s move a notable shift from the month’s historical pattern.

Liquidity and ETF Demand Strengthen Bitcoin’s Breakout

A key catalyst was the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of its bond buyback program. The announcement triggered a liquidity response, while $3 billion in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated over two days, marking the largest short-side wipeout on record.

Long liquidations remained limited, while futures open interest rose to $51 billion. That combination suggests fresh positions entered the market rather than the rally coming only from traders closing leverage.

Beyond the derivatives market, spot demand provided another source of support. U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted about $1.92 billion in weekly net inflows, their strongest weekly total since October 2025. That lifted assets under management above $96 billion.

Corporate activity, however, remained subdued. Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder, reported no BTC purchases or sales in its filing. The pause came after a period of activity and left its average acquisition price at around $75,385, below the market price.  With BTC now above that level, the company has moved from a $9.5 billion paper loss to a $4.7 billion paper profit.

Mixed Signals Emerge Beneath the Breakout

Bitfinex analysts said Strategy could influence whether Bitcoin maintains the breakout because the company stopped selling shortly before BTC moved beyond its summer range. The shift removes one source of supply pressure that had been present during the consolidation.

Meanwhile, on-chain activity presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin transfer volumes remain close to eight-year lows, suggesting network activity has not matched the price move. At the same time, short-term holders with cost bases near $64,500 and $73,500 have moved into profit.

Those holders could help turn previous resistance into support if the breakout holds. Bitfinex identified thin supply between current prices and a heavier concentration around $84,000 to $85,000, creating a potential next hurdle.

The broader liquidity backdrop also supports this interpretation. Mortgage rates fell for a second week while housing activity remained weak. Builders kept cutting prices as housing starts fell, suggesting easier financial conditions may reach asset markets before the wider economy.

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For over two months, bitcoin has struggled below $70,000, hovering around $62,000 to $65,000. Still, experts believe that the broader macro market condition is moving in favor of the apex crypto.

Crypto exchange Bitfinex stated in its latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report that two of the three conditions that can support a BTC rally have been met. If successful, this can supercharge the next market phase, which is expected to be more favorable for the bulls.

Two of Three Conditions Met

The Bitfinex report outlined “lower expected rates and already-loose financial conditions” as the two conditions that have already been met.

The inflation rate fell from 3.50% in June to 3.40% in July, partly due to a drop in energy prices. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates in the coming weeks. With short-term Treasury yields dropping and stocks like the S&P 500 soaring, investors have increased their appetite for risk assets.

Meanwhile, tech-focused hardware and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure have brought in “a separate source of supply-driven inflation.” However, this capital has failed to flow into the crypto market.

The Final Piece of the Puzzle

The Bitfinex Alpha report claims that if the capital flowing through the equities market, the tech sector, and the AI market can enter the crypto ecosystem, a price surge for the largest digital asset will naturally follow. This is what it tags as the third condition to be met for a smooth rally.

Presently, capital flow through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has decreased. For instance, the fund lost around $385 million in weekly flow during the same week that equities like the S&P 100 soared.

Additionally, corporate Bitcoin treasuries have turned negative. Strategy, the leading BTC holder, has slowed down its bitcoin acquisitions. It even sold some of its holdings in separate weeks this year alone.

Stablecoin supply has also reduced, staying below its May record.

“In such a thin market, relatively small changes in flows could produce an outsized move in either direction,” Bitfinex explained.

This indicates that if capital flows favor the crypto market, BTC could once again attain or surpass $70,000. Conversely, a prolonged negative flow can send bitcoin to a lower support level, around $57,000.

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Equity perpetual futures on major digital asset exchanges reached about $250 billion in monthly volume in July. That marks a seventeenfold jump from roughly $15 billion in April, showing how quickly the market has expanded in just three months.

According to analytics firm CryptoQuant, that expansion has turned crypto exchanges into round-the-clock venues for contracts linked to traditional equities. The products give users continuous access to familiar stocks without being limited by conventional market trading hours.

Binance Leads as AI and Chip Stocks Dominate Volume

Binance remained the dominant venue in July, handling roughly $193 billion in equity perpetual futures volume, equivalent to about 76% of the total market. Bitfer, Bybit, and Gate followed at a considerable distance.

CryptoQuant identified Gate as the fastest-growing venue during the month. Its equity perpetual futures volume increased by about 308% from June, compared with 176% for Bybit and 59% for Binance. The report also noted that Gate had recorded consecutive monthly growth since May.

Despite the broader rise in activity, trading remains concentrated across a small group of technology and semiconductor-related assets. SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron, and the leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL made up the core of what analysts describe as the AI-memory complex.

On Gate, in particular, the concentration was especially pronounced. SanDisk and SK Hynix together accounted for 53% of the exchange’s total equity perpetual futures volume last month.

Beyond Gate, the broader market also remained focused on companies linked to artificial intelligence and memory chips. This narrow concentration has made these assets the main focus of activity across the emerging equity perpetual market.

Crypto Platforms Push Beyond Traditional Assets

The products also reflect a broader shift in how digital asset exchanges are expanding beyond traditional cryptocurrency markets. Rather than focusing only on assets such as BTC and Ether, exchanges are offering perpetual contracts linked to traditional financial instruments.

At the same time, the approach allows crypto-native capital to access equity-linked products through infrastructure that operates continuously. The contracts therefore provide exposure to selected traditional assets while retaining the always-on structure associated with crypto markets.

However, CryptoQuant’s report shows a market that has expanded rapidly while remaining focused on a narrow group of assets. Whether activity eventually spreads across a broader range of equity perpetual contracts will depend on how the market develops beyond its current concentration.

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Bitcoin moved toward the top of its range last week as institutional demand through U.S. spot ETFs strengthened. Cooler employment data reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike, but persistent selling pressure kept the move contained.

The stronger ETF demand was reflected in $865.3 million of net inflows across five straight sessions, the funds’ strongest weekly showing since April. According to a recent Bitfinex Alpha report, the funds absorbed about 13,300 BTC during the period. That was more than four times the roughly 3,150 BTC newly created by the network.

ETF Inflows Return, But Sellers Push Back

BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC accounted for much of the ETF activity. Ether-focused ETFs also recorded $243.7 million in inflows, extending their weekly streak and showing that demand was not limited to Bitcoin.

The renewed demand came as broader risk assets also moved higher amid easing tensions and falling oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 3.58% for the week, while Bitcoin gained slightly more than 2%, indicating that other sources of supply continued to weigh on its price.

One notable source of that supply came from Strategy, which disclosed the sale of 1,638 BTC for approximately $104.7 million. The company sold the coins at an average price of about $63,957 and said it would use the proceeds for preferred dividends and a discounted share repurchase.

Strategy’s sale adds to a broader supply overhang visible on-chain around Bitcoin’s current trading range. An estimated 1.79 million BTC have cost bases between $62,000 and $65,000, creating potential selling pressure as the price moves through the band.

Why the Macro Picture Remains Mixed

U.S. labor data added to the macro backdrop, with July payrolls falling by 23,000 and earlier figures revised lower. The three-month average job gain dropped to about 20,000, while unemployment reached 4.1% as participation declined.

Initial jobless claims remained low, indicating that the labor market was cooling rather than collapsing. Futures markets lowered the probability of a September rate hike to 43.9%, while Treasury yields and the dollar eased.

However, long-term borrowing costs stayed high, with the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.2% amid inflation concerns and heavy government borrowing. Bitfinex said Bitcoin could break above $65,000 if ETF demand remains strong while inflation and long-term yields ease.

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Large Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP holders continued accumulating during recent market weakness, analytics firm CryptoQuant said.

The firm’s weekly report, Buying the Bear: A Signal of the Bear Market’s Final Stage, examined the recent accumulation by the largest wallets. It said the steady buying reflects behavior often seen during the closing phase of a bear market.

Whales Accumulate Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP

For Bitcoin, wallets linked to major holders, excluding exchanges and miners, expanded their combined balance to about 3.06 million BTC this year. Buying accelerated after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in June, though holdings remain below the 2025 cycle peak.

Ethereum showed an even stronger accumulation trend among its largest holders. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH reached a record of 19.6 million ETH. Addresses with more than 100,000 ETH have added about 1.8 million ETH since mid-2025, lifting their holdings by roughly 70%.

The accumulation trend contrasted with activity among smaller Ethereum holders. CryptoQuant noted that wallets outside the largest groups reduced their combined balance by about 2.7 million ETH since January, showing a growing divide between large and smaller holders.

A similar shift was also visible in XRP, where large holders continued increasing their positions despite fears and liquidations.

Realized Prices Point to Late Bear Market Conditions

The recent accumulation comes as all three assets trade near key realized price levels. Realized price is widely used to assess market cycles because it estimates the average acquisition cost of holders.

Bitcoin was trading around $65,000 compared with a realized price of roughly $52,900, while Ether changed hands near $1,920 against a realized price of about $2,450. XRP traded near $1.04 with a realized price of approximately $0.75, levels the firm described as consistent with late-stage bear market conditions.

According to CryptoQuant, the combination of whale accumulation and prices trading near realized values is consistent with the closing phase of a bear market. The firm added that further downside remains possible before a market bottom is confirmed.

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A coordinated Bitcoin security campaign uncovered nearly 5,000 software issues across hundreds of open-source projects in about 30 hours. The effort combined human expertise with artificial intelligence tools to identify software weaknesses.

The initiative brought together 16 security researchers led by developer Calle, with support from OpenSats, OpenCode, and AI inference sponsors. The group worked together on a coordinated review covering hundreds of Bitcoin-related projects.

Breaking Down the Findings

According to figures released by the team, researchers reported 4,962 findings across 390 Bitcoin-related projects during the campaign. The total included 85 critical issues and 635 high-severity findings, bringing the number of the most serious reports to 720.

The campaign maintained a rapid pace, averaging about 166 reported findings every hour throughout the review. Based on the published figures, the team identified roughly 2.3 critical or high-severity issues for every person-hour spent examining software.

Researchers said the campaign differed from a traditional security audit because human reviewers actively guided AI systems during testing. Each participant used different prompts and methods, helping uncover weaknesses that a single approach might have missed.

The final tally also included findings collected by one contributor before the live campaign officially began. After those results were added, crypto libraries and software development kits recorded the largest share of findings with 1,385 reported issues.

What the Findings Revealed

The team said that about one out of every seven reported findings fell into the high or critical severity categories. Only one reviewed project reportedly completed the campaign without any reported issues, prompting a lighthearted remark from Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corallo.

Researchers have already started sending verified critical findings to affected project maintainers with supporting proof-of-concept retest demonstrations. Many maintainers reportedly confirmed the reports quickly, although processing such a large volume remains a significant challenge.

The campaign comes as Bitcoin software security receives greater attention across the ecosystem after several recent security incidents. Separately, Bitcoin recorded about 0.98 million daily active addresses on July 31, the highest level since December 2024. The surge came after attackers began sweeping wallets whose seeds were generated using defective Coldcard firmware.

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Bitcoin finished July on a strong note before losing momentum at the start of August with two straight daily closes below $63,000. The decline has raised fresh caution even as blockchain data points to steady buying around current price levels.

That buying activity became clearer in recent on-chain data, which shows roughly 155,000 BTC moved into the $62,000 to $65,000 cost-basis range during the latest pullback. The zone now holds the largest concentration of supply across the market and represents about 0.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Accumulation Continues Despite Price Weakness

According to the recent Bitfinex report, the supply cluster expanded while prices declined instead of shrinking through broad selling activity. The report said the pattern suggests buyers absorbed selling pressure rather than existing holders leaving the market in large numbers.

The data also highlights different behavior between long-term and short-term holders during the recent decline. Long-term holders continued accumulating Bitcoin, while many short-term holders reduced positions near their purchase prices.

Despite those signs of accumulation, broader market activity has become more subdued. Bitcoin entered August after recording a 7.3% gain during July, which matched historical seasonal trends for the month. However, spot trading volumes have fallen to levels last seen in late 2023.

Market Sentiment Turns More Cautious

Institutional demand also weakened as U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a combined net weekly outflow of $61.5 million. That result ended three consecutive weeks of positive inflows and reflected softer demand from large market participants.

The options market has also turned more defensive as participants paid higher premiums for downside protection. Even so, implied volatility remains close to multi-year lows, suggesting expectations for relatively limited price swings.

Beyond market positioning, broader economic conditions continue influencing sentiment. Second-quarter GDP expanded 1.5%, while private domestic demand rose 3.9%, driven by consumer spending and AI-related investment.

Inflation also remains a focus after personal consumption expenditures prices increased at a 5.1% annualized pace. Meanwhile, the 10-year real yield reached 2.41%, placing it only nine basis points below a level some analysts consider important for non-yielding assets.

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Flare has announced that its FXRP token can now be used as collateral in Sentora’s RLUSD vault on Morpho, marking a new step for XRP in decentralized finance. The update allows XRP holders to access lending markets on Ethereum without selling their underlying holdings.

The integration follows Sentora’s approval of FXRP for use in its institutionally managed RLUSD vault, announced on August 3, 2026. The vault holds about $280 million in RLUSD and now includes a dedicated FXRP/RLUSD market on Morpho Blue.

FXRP Approved as Ethereum Lending Collateral

According to a press release sent to CryptoPotato, this is the first time a version of XRP has been accepted as collateral in an institutional lending vault on Ethereum mainnet. Users can mint FXRP through Flare’s FAssets system, transfer it to Ethereum through Stargate, and borrow RLUSD while keeping exposure to XRP.

The lending market is open to all users and does not require a whitelist before participation. A supply cap has been introduced at launch, with the limit expected to change as liquidity grows.

Commenting on the milestone, Flare Co-founder and CEO Hugo Philion said limited infrastructure had restricted XRP’s use in decentralized finance for years. He added that the approval shows institutional risk managers now recognize FXRP as collateral on Ethereum rather than simply another bridged asset.

Echoing that view, Sentora Co-founder and Chief Technology and Product Officer Jesus Rodriguez said the integration brings XRP into on-chain credit markets. He noted that the development expands the practical use of XRP across decentralized lending.

Risk Controls and Future Development

Before approving the asset, Sentora completed a review covering market behavior, price oracles, liquidity, and liquidation mechanisms. The company said FXRP will continue to undergo the same monitoring process applied to other approved collateral assets.

Morpho Blue isolates each lending market, limiting potential risks to the specific FXRP/RLUSD pool. The structure also gives the market its own oracle system and liquidation parameters.

Under this setup, borrowers will pay interest based on market utilization and must maintain enough collateral to avoid liquidation. Flare is developing Smart Accounts that will allow users to complete the process directly from XRP Ledger wallets. The company is also working on direct FXRP transfers from the XRP Ledger to Ethereum.

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South Korean authorities have uncovered a cryptocurrency fraud case that exploited interest in a newly launched blockchain token. The operation targeted XRP holders through a fake investment platform that disappeared after collecting millions of dollars in digital assets.

Authorities launched their investigation after an overseas cryptocurrency exchange flagged suspicious transactions. Within three days of receiving the alert, investigators traced the activity and froze digital wallets holding most of the stolen assets.

How the Scam Worked

According to the probe, the fraudulent website appeared shortly after the Flare Network introduced its FXRP token in October 2025. The platform promised monthly returns of 1.5% to 1.8% while claiming users’ original deposits would remain protected.

The investigation found that the group created convincing online material to support the fake project and make it appear legitimate. False reference pages, blog posts, online articles, and promotional videos were published to strengthen trust among potential victims.

The probe also revealed that victims were instructed to move their XRP through overseas exchanges before sending funds to designated wallet addresses. This process made the transfers appear more credible while helping the organizers distance themselves from the stolen assets.

Ultimately, the website operated for slightly more than one week before shutting down without warning after attracting deposits. During that period, seventy-one victims transferred about 3.4 million XRP worth roughly $8.6 million (12.3 billion won) into wallets controlled by the suspects.

Where the Stolen Funds Went

Blockchain tracing later showed that the suspects’ wallets handled digital assets worth approximately $19 million (27.3 billion won) during the operation. Officials froze about $12.1 million (17.3 billion won) on foreign exchanges, while the remaining funds have not been recovered.

The confirmed losses averaged around $121,000 (173 million won) per victim, although the amounts varied significantly. Police said at least one victim reported losing more than one billion won through the fraudulent platform.

The financial investigation eventually led to several arrests in South Korea. Three men in their late twenties and thirties were taken into custody in South Korea during the investigation. Two suspected organizers face aggravated fraud charges, while another suspect remains overseas under an international alert.

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Bitcoin extended its positive run last week with a minor 1% weekly gain, marking its fourth straight weekly advance for the first time since April. Even so, the rally showed signs of losing momentum after a sharp midweek reversal weakened buying pressure.

The cryptocurrency climbed to a weekly high of $67,000 on Tuesday before dropping 5% as short-term holders sold near their breakeven level. The decline reinforced resistance overhead and showed that buyers are still struggling to push Bitcoin beyond its recent trading range.

Institutional Demand Remains Under Pressure

According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the short-term holder cost basis has stabilized near $68,500. The metric had gradually moved closer to spot prices over the past month. Analysts said this level has become a key resistance area that will likely require stronger demand for Bitcoin to break above it.

So far, that demand has remained limited despite recent ETF inflows. The report said institutional participation continues to weaken. Specifically, CME Bitcoin futures fell below $6 billion, while options reached a September 2023 low.

ETF flows also reflected that softer demand beneath the surface. Despite this, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight week of net inflows totaling $33.9 million. However, they also saw $465.2 million in outflows on Thursday and Friday, while BlackRock’s IBIT turned net negative.

Macro Risks Add to Bitcoin’s Cautious Outlook

Another sign of softer institutional participation is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained below zero for more than 60 consecutive trading days. Bitfinex described current market conditions as a typical summer slowdown, with 30-day spot trading volumes at just 62.4% of their yearly average.

Beyond weaker market activity, broader economic conditions are adding uncertainty to Bitcoin’s outlook. Rising US diesel prices continue to pressure transport and production costs, raising the risk that inflation could remain elevated.

Meanwhile, higher inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path, while futures markets assign about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.

The report also noted that the US 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.43%, approaching a level that could pressure risk assets. As a result, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $63,000 and $68,500, awaiting stronger demand or fresh catalysts.

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Flare has introduced Smart Accounts version 1.3 to simplify how XRP holders access decentralized finance (DeFi) without changing their existing wallet. The update also removes the need to create separate wallets, manually bridge assets, or manage gas tokens before using DeFi services.

According to a press release sent to CryptoPotato, users now need only a single wallet signature to access DeFi. Previously, the process required two separate approvals.

How Smart Accounts Version 1.3 Works

Under the new version, users approve a single transaction from their XRP Ledger wallet. The system then converts their XRP into FXRP and automatically deposits it into a selected yield vault.

The Flare Data Connector verifies the XRP Ledger transaction before a smart contract completes the remaining steps. Flare said the original XRP remains locked on the XRP Ledger at a one-to-one ratio throughout the process.

This setup allows users to retain control of their assets while removing the need for manual bridging or obtaining gas tokens on another blockchain. The simplified process comes as FXRP activity across decentralized finance platforms continues to expand.

Since February, the amount of FXRP deployed across DeFi applications has grown by nearly 75%, rising from 82 million to 144 million. Flare also reported that more than 40 million XRP is currently earning through Smart Accounts across nearly 24,000 accounts.

New Vaults and Broader Wallet Integration

Commenting on the update, Chief Product Officer Filip Koprivec said millions of XRP holders had wanted access to DeFi, but the experience had been too complex. He said version 1.3 lets users move from XRP to yield with a single wallet signature while remaining fully non-custodial.

The version also expands the available yield options with two vaults offering different approaches. Users can continue using the Monarq vault or choose the new Clearstar Flare XRP Yield Vault, which uses on-chain lending and liquidity strategies.

According to the company, the Clearstar vault distributes FXRP across protocols including Avant and Euler while keeping all positions publicly visible. Flare added that Clearstar has previously managed more than 33 million FXRP through earlier deployments.

The update also expands wallet support to Ledger, Xaman, Joey Wallet, WalletConnect, including Bifrost, and D’CENT. Joey Wallet has integrated the Smart Accounts interface directly into its application, allowing users to complete the process without leaving the wallet.

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Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 near $60,000 after falling about 32% since January, Binance Research reported. Its Half-Year 2026: Macro & Bitcoin report described the decline as a third consecutive quarterly loss across broader financial markets worldwide.

The weak first-half performance also extended Bitcoin’s longer-term drawdown. According to the report, the asset has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record high near $126,000. It has also spent 275 days below that peak, underscoring the depth and persistence of the current market downturn.

On-Chain Data Signals Market Stress

On-chain data showed 10.83 million BTC ended the period in unrealized loss, while 9.22 million units remained profitable instead. Binance Research said this marked the first loss-over-profit crossover during the current market cycle, making conditions important for analysts.

The researchers noted similar crossovers have historically appeared near major Bitcoin market bottoms before stronger recoveries eventually followed. However, they cautioned that historical patterns alone cannot confirm the current cycle will produce the same outcome.

Beyond the on-chain signals, Binance attributed Bitcoin’s weak performance mainly to broader macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments. The report said markets shifted from liquidity-driven expectations toward economic fundamentals as monetary policy remained restrictive throughout the first half of 2026.

Expectations for interest rates also changed as hopes for aggressive cuts faded. Futures markets instead reflected an 80% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase before December, adding pressure across financial markets.

Macro Pressures Weigh on Bitcoin

The report also said higher real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and tighter liquidity continued to weigh on Bitcoin. While technology stocks rebounded on optimism around artificial intelligence, BTC lagged behind many major asset classes during the same period.

A resilient U.S. economy also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. Binance Research said artificial intelligence was a key driver of first-quarter economic activity. At the same time, core PCE inflation rose to 3.4%, its highest level since late 2023, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain stubborn.

That backdrop also weakened demand for crypto. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first half of the year.

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Bitcoin is approaching a key technical level after recording its third consecutive weekly gain. The asset closed last week at around $65,000, rising 1.7% over the period and extending its three-week advance to 11.5%. It also remained above the $61,360 demand zone despite broader market volatility.

Following this sustained recovery, attention has shifted to the $68,000 resistance level. According to the recent Bitfinex report, this level could determine Bitcoin’s next short-term direction. The analysts identified a key reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300, where the short-term holder realized price and the second-quarter opening level have converged.

Why the $68,000 Level Matters

Bitfinex analysts say many holders who bought near the key reaction range may choose to sell once they recover their original positions. That behavior has created selling pressure during similar retests, making the coming move important for Bitcoin’s short-term direction.

A decisive breakout above the resistance zone would require sustained buying in the spot market rather than speculative activity. Otherwise, BTC could face another rejection and revisit lower support levels established during the recent recovery.

Current institutional demand may play a key role in determining that outcome. Notably, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have shifted from sustained outflows to a more balanced flow pattern. However, Bitfinex analysts say fresh demand still depends heavily on BlackRock’s IBIT fund.

A More Supportive Macro Backdrop

Bitcoin has also captured a larger share of total cryptocurrency spot trading volume in recent sessions. Analysts said this trend appears to reflect a defensive move away from altcoins rather than a broad return of confidence across the digital asset market.

Beyond crypto market dynamics, the broader macroeconomic environment has also become more supportive. June inflation in the United States recorded its first negative monthly reading in six years. Lower energy prices contributed to the decline, while weakness in the housing sector continued through lower building permits and higher inventories.

Despite those signs of slowing activity, consumer spending and business investment have remained resilient. That combination has kept second-quarter economic growth estimates near 2.5%, creating a missed outlook for the Federal Reserve while supporting risk assets like Bitcoin.

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American business intelligence firm Strategy has bolstered its financial position by addressing liquidity concerns raised earlier this year. In a July 14 follow-up, the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said the company’s new capital framework has eased short-term financial pressure. The firm, however, noted that questions remain about Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin strategy.

The update follows CryptoQuant’s June 23 assessment, which warned that Strategy’s cash reserves were shrinking even as Bitcoin purchases continued. At the time, analysts estimated the company had enough liquidity to cover preferred dividend obligations for only about 14 months without additional funding.

Strategy Rolls Out New Capital Framework

To address those concerns, Strategy introduced its Digital Credit Capital Framework on June 29 to strengthen its financial flexibility. The plan established a board-approved U.S. dollar reserve policy that initially targeted about $2.55 billion before later raising the goal to roughly $3 billion.

The framework also raised the STRC dividend rate to 12% and approved up to $1 billion each for preferred securities issuance and MSTR share repurchases. It also introduced a Bitcoin Monetization Program, allowing the company to sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to support reserves and funding needs.

The on-chain analytics firm said the measures are closely aligned with recommendations made in its earlier report. Strategy also paused additional Bitcoin purchases and sold 3,588 BTC worth about $216 million between June 29 and July 5. It further raised $466.7 million through its MSTR at-the-market share offering.

As a result, cash reserves rose from roughly $1.44 billion to about $3 billion, extending estimated dividend coverage to around 29 months. During the same period, Strategy maintained its Bitcoin holdings at approximately 843,775 BTC by suspending further accumulation.

Questions Over Future Bitcoin Management Remain

According to CryptoQuant, the market has responded positively to the stronger liquidity position, although some uncertainty remains. STRC recovered from a June low near $75 to around $88 but continued trading below its stated value of $100.

Even so, analysts said the framework does not explain when Bitcoin purchases could resume after the recent pause. They also said the Bitcoin Monetization Program prioritizes dividends, reserves, and share repurchases without defining a clear Bitcoin trading strategy.

The post Saylor’s Strategy Strengthens Liquidity Position but Long-Term Bitcoin Plan Still Faces Scrutiny appeared first on CryptoPotato.

This week’s Bitfinex Alpha report has revealed that bitcoin usually has a five-to-six-month bear market window where it trades below the Short-term Holder Realized Price. The fifth and sixth months mark the final phase of the period, after which the asset experiences a broader recovery.

July marks the fifth month in this bear phase window, and analysts believe BTC could witness a significant recovery. While there are positive dynamics that could drive the rebound in the coming weeks, market experts have also identified factors that could disrupt the recovery.

BTC Ends Five-Month Bear Window

According to Bitfinex analysts, the positive seasonality of July may drive the recovery, but macro factors like the June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could constitute a hindrance. So, the end of the five-to-six-month window is not enough to confirm a broader recovery for BTC; macro and demand dynamics need to align as well.

So far this month, BTC has absorbed record corporate selling and weathered the storms of renewed geopolitical pressure. Last week, the asset was hit from every direction; Strategy executed its largest sale ever, and the Fed faced continued divisions.

Despite the harsh environment, BTC managed to maintain its range within $61,300 and $64,700. The asset’s resilience was further supported by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) breaking their outflow streak after nine weeks. These products recorded $197.4 million in net inflows for the first time in over two months.

Although the inflows into ETFs reflect recovering institutional demand, BTC still remains dependent on the macro environment, and July’s positive seasonality stays secondary.

ETFs Break Nine Weeks Outflow Streak

From a more detailed perspective, analysts believe the ETF inflow pattern matters more than the total. The inflows appeared more on quieter days and receded when geopolitical tensions intensified. This indicated that institutional demand has not established a durable floor.

With that in mind, one major indicator to watch is the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of ETF net inflows. This metric tracks the primary direction of institutional positioning and the persistent trend in market demand. The SMA signals that the monthly trend of ETF flows remains in a state of net contraction, with daily redemptions hitting $88.9 million.

The next moves of the SMA will depend on whether July’s seasonality is strong enough to override macro tensions in the coming weeks.

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Binance has marked its ninth anniversary by highlighting strong user growth and expanding beyond digital assets into traditional financial products. The exchange now reports 323 million registered users across more than 100 countries, reflecting its growing global presence.

The scale of that user base becomes clearer when placed in the context of global cryptocurrency adoption. According to the firm’s report, its users represent about 43% of the estimated 741 million people worldwide who currently own cryptocurrency. Notably, this compares with a global crypto user population of fewer than six million when Binance launched in July 2017.

User Growth and Trading Activity

Registered users on Binance grew by another 7% during the first half of 2026 despite mixed market conditions. The company also reported a 9% rise in institutional users over the same period, pointing to continued participation from larger market players.

This growth in user activity was accompanied by higher trading volumes. Binance’s cumulative trading volume reached $156 trillion after adding $11.4 trillion during the first six months of the year. That pushed total trading activity 7.8% above the level recorded at the end of 2025.

Expansion Into Traditional Financial Products

The exchange also reported steady activity outside its crypto business through newer financial products. Monthly trading volume for its traditional finance offerings has remained above $80 billion since March, according to the company.

One of the latest additions to that business is direct stock trading, which Binance introduced in June as part of its broader financial services strategy. The product reached $1 billion in assets under management within 30 days and generated more than $3 billion in cumulative trading volume.

The company’s tokenized U.S. equities, known as bStocks, also recorded early growth after launch. Binance said the offering reached $100 million in assets under management within two weeks, while 47% of trading activity occurred outside regular U.S. market hours.

Co-CEOs Yi He and Richard Teng said the company aims to serve both retail users and institutional participants through a wider range of financial products. They added that recent launches, including stocks and tokenized assets, support Binance’s goal of improving access to global markets.

To celebrate the milestone, Binance launched a community campaign called “Built by You,” featuring up to $4.5 million in rewards and an interactive virtual experience. The anniversary comes as regulatory frameworks continue to evolve in major markets and institutional participation in digital assets remains a key industry trend.

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As analysts have predicted for July based on historical data, BTC is off to a strong start. The leading digital currency has rebounded from its most recent low of $57,700 to $64,000, a major support and pivot level.

According to the latest CryptoQuant weekly report, bitcoin’s rebound can be attributed to July’s positive seasonality and recovering demand. These factors are likely to contribute to a significant pump before the month runs out.

July Starts Strong, Bitcoin Sees Recovery

To substantiate the claims, CryptoQuant analysts cited past data that showed that the seasonal tailwind is strongest in July during bear markets. July has become bitcoin’s reliable positive month over the last decade. During previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022, BTC closed the month with 20% and 17% surges, respectively.

So far this month, BTC has risen 11% from its lows of $57,700, trading above $64,000. The positive momentum witnessed in July usually happens regardless of how weak the broader market trend is. Since BTC entered July fresh off a bear market low, there is a higher chance of further upside, thanks to positive seasonality.

Moreover, total bitcoin demand is recovering and has climbed back towards neutral after its sharpest contraction since 2022. Analysts noted a recovery in 30-day total demand metrics after the indicator fell to -650,000 BTC in early June as the asset declined toward $58,000.

“It has since recovered to near neutral, with speculative futures demand turning slightly positive while spot apparent demand contracts at its slowest pace since mid-May. A move back into positive territory would confirm that the demand engine is re-igniting,” analysts explained.

Stronger Demand Still Needed

Furthermore, investor demand in the United States is improving, as seen in the Coinbase Premium Index, which has recovered from deeply negative readings to -0.062. The rebound was aided by BTC rebounding from the $57,000 level. It signals that selling pressure on U.S. trading platforms is easing and institutional appetite is stabilizing.

Unfortunately, market conditions are still extremely bearish despite these recent developments, as seen in the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index hovering at 20, which is the bearish zone. Even though BTC has reached short-term undervalued territory and more price recovery is possible, stronger demand is needed.

In fact, the Bull Score Index needs a reading above 60 for a sustainable rally. Until this happens, every rebound will be treated as a bear-market recovery, not a trend reversal.

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As the business intelligence and Bitcoin treasury company Strategy just carried out its largest BTC sale this week, analysts are comparing just how deeply the firm is underwater.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reviewed Strategy’s Bitcoin unrealized losses compared to those of the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance, in their latest report. This is because both entities are major BTC holders, with hundreds of thousands of digital assets sitting in their reserves.

Underwater Comparisons Between Strategy and Binance

According to Darkfost’s report, crypto exchanges collectively hold about 8 million BTC, with roughly 30% concentrated on Binance alone. Bitfinex, Gemini, Kraken, and OKX follow suit with more than 5% of the holdings each.

It is worth mentioning that Binance’s bitcoin reserves are mostly owned by investors. This is because the exchange liquidated about 94% of its proprietary BTC reserves and converted them into stablecoins in early 2025 during a major restructuring. So, since then, it has not actively engaged in selling its own BTC; the bitcoin in question now belongs to investors.

Although Binance accounts for the largest exchange reserves with 656,561 BTC, Strategy still tops the platform with 843,775 units. This feat is despite Strategy executing two batches of BTC sales within less than two months. The first was in late May – 32 BTC for $2.5 million – while the second was earlier this week – 3,588 BTC for $216 million. These sales have been aimed at funding security dividends and corporate liquidity needs. Darkfost said Strategy’s moves reflect the company’s need for liquidity rather than a market conviction.

Strategy In Deeper Losses

Strategy’s 843,775 BTC stash has an average acquisition price of $75,476, but the sales have been taking place around the $60,000 level. So, the business intelligence giant has realized roughly 20% sales losses.

On the other hand, all the BTC sitting on Binance has an estimated realized price of $60,900, well below Strategy’s $75,476. This indicates that the latter’s reserves are still deeper underwater than Binance’s – the treasury firm is sitting on more unrealized losses.

Moreover, Strategy has more BTC holdings than Binance, so the firm has a significantly larger unrealized loss margin than the exchange. If Saylor’s company makes any more sales while BTC hovers around $60,000, it is bound to realize even more losses.

The post Strategy or Binance: Who’s Sitting on More Unrealized Bitcoin Losses? CryptoQuant Weighs In appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Over three weeks ago, the Ripple team launched a new software update for the XRP Ledger (XRPL). Although the infrastructure upgrade (v3.2.0) has been running for close to a month now, not all of the network’s validator nodes have adopted it. In fact, more than half of the nodes are still running on the old version (v3.1.3) and are yet to come on board.

Data from XRPScan shows that only 43%, accounting for 357 out of 828 nodes, have upgraded to v3.2.0. On the other hand, 51%, that is 426 of the nodes, are still running on v3.1.3.

XRPL Launches New Upgrade

The latest infrastructure upgrade introduces several new features to the XRPL. One of them is the rebranding of the core server software from rippled to xrpld. The update also optimizes institutional usage by significantly reducing operating costs and implementing 30% to 40% lower memory usage across network nodes.

Additionally, v3.2.0 improves security, developer experience, and network efficiency, adding another confidence layer for builders. These features will add to the bug fixes and improvements to permissioned domains and vaults implemented during the v3.1.3 maintenance rollout in late May.

It is worth mentioning that despite the majority of nodes still operating on v3.1.3, roughly 61% of XRPL validators running on rippled versions have adopted the new upgrade. Also, 89% of the Unique Node List (UNL), which is the ledger’s trusted set of validators, are currently running on the software.

The XRPL needs 80% of the UNL to activate any network upgrades. With 31 out of 35 UNL validators having cleared the threshold, the network treats v3.2.0 as sufficiently updated. So, it is only a matter of time before other nodes jump on the bandwagon.

V3.2.0 Amendment Under Voting

In the meantime, the XRPL is trying to approve and implement security fixes associated with v3.2.0. The fixes, bundled in an amendment titled fixCleanup3_2_0, are yet to be approved, as it is still under voting on the XRPL.

The XRPL needs 28 out of 35 UNL votes to cross the threshold and approve the amendment; however, the network has gotten 17 so far. This means only 48.57% of trusted validators have voted so far.

If approved, fixCleanup3_2_0 will deploy fixes for single-asset vaults, lending protocol, multi-purpose tokens, permissioned domains, and permissioned decentralized exchanges.

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The bear cycle is heavily affecting altcoins as expected. With bitcoin (BTC) struggling to remain above $60,000, this group of cryptocurrencies is having it worse.

A report from the market analysis platform CryptoQuant revealed that about 40% of altcoins are currently trading around their all-time low (ATL). This dynamic reflects an extreme level of underperformance among most projects.

Altcoins in Extreme Underperformance

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the extreme underperformance of altcoins reflects the harsh reality facing projects that chose to launch tokens. The analyst said he initially built the Percentage of Altcoins Near ATL chart to visualize coins trading below 25% of their all-time low, only to see that at least 40% of these assets are trading near their respective bottoms.

As the bear season progresses and BTC declines further, altcoins’ performance worsens. In fact, when BTC fell below $60,000 last month, the percentage of altcoins near their ATL climbed to 45%.

One of the major drivers of this underperformance is the low liquidity despite thousands of coins being created and added to the market daily. CoinMarketCap data shows that there are 53.5 million cryptocurrencies currently existing, with 60,000 new ones added every day. Unfortunately, the majority of these assets are doomed to fail because of the state of the market and a growing lack of liquidity.

“Without strong incoming liquidity, it’s easy to see why the majority of these cryptos are doomed to fail,” the analyst explained.

No Liquidity Inflow

Darkfost says it is now essential for investors to be highly selective of the projects they choose to be exposed to. This is because the crypto market has changed, and only a few projects will survive the bear phase and stay afloat.

The analyst’s comments echo similar remarks CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju made in early December 2024 during the last bull cycle. At the time, the altcoin market sentiment was good, and multiple coins were skyrocketing to multi-year highs. Ju believed the altseason would not play out as investors expected because the sector was not seeing a notable inflow of fresh liquidity.

As Ju predicted, only a few assets recorded significant gains during that period and the bull phase as a whole; the lack of liquidity hampered the growth of other assets. Apparently, the low liquidity has intensified in this bear season, and most altcoins are performing even more poorly.

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On-chain data has confirmed that June was a painful month for bitcoin (BTC), but beyond the price weakness, both spot demand and institutional flows faltered. Due to last month’s performance, there is speculation that the market may be nearing a cyclical bottom, but this remains unconfirmed.

In the meantime, analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed in this week’s Bitfinex Alpha that historical data suggests that July could be better for BTC. However, a seasonality dynamic will not be able to sustain a recovery for BTC this month – the asset needs sustained spot and institutional demand.

Worst June in 4 Years

BTC fell to a fresh cycle low of $57,800 last month, marking the worst June since 2022 and the second-worst since 2013. Analysts say this dump was intensified by waning STRC demand and six consecutive weeks of outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the longest since their launch. The decline to $58,000 marked a 54.15% plunge from current cycle highs, and BTC ended June down 20.48%.

“June’s downside was likely deepened by the failure of both principal demand engines: waning STRC demand and ETF outflows that represented the worst streak on record. The month closed down 20.48 percent from its monthly open, far below the seasonal median of negative 1.5 percent. That sharp deviation left the market technically oversold heading into July,” analysts explained.

With BTC reclaiming the $60,000 level on July 1, market experts believe the plunge may have been a failed breakdown rather than a sustained leg lower. Additionally, the rebound indicated that spot demand had begun to return at marginal lows. Although the current setup supports a positive seasonality for July, only the return of stronger demand, particularly through renewed ETF inflows, will sustain recovery.

Will July Be Better?

In prior bear markets, June and November have been the weakest months, so July has historically been firmer. This month posted double-digit gains in 2018 and 2022 bear cycles. However, analysts believe it is too early to tell if the cycle lows are in. The stage for broader sustainable recovery is only set if the demand engines are repaired.

“Seasonality supports the current setup but will not drive it,” analysts stated.

Interestingly, the ETF market has witnessed a reprieve from the bearish regime – $223.5 million on July 2. However, analysts insist that one session of inflows is insufficient to reverse the damage from six weeks of outflows.

The post Bitcoin Records Worst June in Four Years – Is a Cyclical Bottom in Play? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

According to on-chain indicators reviewed by analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex, bitcoin (BTC) still has some way to go before it bottoms out in this bear cycle.

The latest Bitfinex Alpha report revealed that the leading digital asset could decline further into the $40,000s by the end of this year as more investors exit the spot market.

A Possible Drawdown Into the $40Ks

In past market cycles, BTC has always declined at least 70% from its all-time highs (ATHs) before bottoming out and recovering. During the 2022 bear market, BTC fell 78% from $69,000, while in 2018, it plummeted 86% below cycle highs near $20,000.

Based on previous drawdown patterns and the time horizons between tops and bottoms, BTC is likely to extend its ongoing decline into the $40,000s. The asset is currently 53.9% down from its ATH of $126,000; dropping into the $40,000s will bring the decline to at least 68%. Additionally, analysts believe BTC could reach its bear-cycle bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026 if cycle estimates account for price moves relative to moving averages.

Analysts say BTC’s structural levels remain unchanged, even though the asset’s floor gave way over the weekend. With the coin trading near $60,000 at press time, it is positioned beneath the True Market Mean of $77,000, a level representing the average cost basis for active investors. This level also serves as a demarcation between bullish and bearish market regimes, so bitcoin’s price action will continue to be defined by a structural bear market environment.

Spot Demand Still Weak

After breaking below the $61,500 support level and falling to a new bear cycle low of $58,136 last week, $53,400 is now the key support level to watch. The move towards $58,000 reflects weakening spot demand as seen in short-term holder selling, exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, the collapse of the digital asset treasury channel, and negative gamma pressure.

Unlike previous declines, there were no large-scale liquidations and flushes in open interest as BTC fell below $60,000 last week. This substantiated the fact that the fall was a structural exodus within the spot markets. With the market’s primary demand engine missing, bitcoin’s price is likely to remain weak and continue a downtrend in the coming weeks.

“But the market awaits a resurgence of spot demand to be able to find a floor and potentially turn higher,” analysts explained.

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As more opinions on Strategy’s latest bitcoin (BTC) moves surface within the crypto community, trader Merlijn has countered Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s stance on the matter.

In a tweet addressing Garlinghouse’s remarks on Strategy’s recent BTC sale, Merlijn insisted that both Ripple and the business intelligence firm use the same funding models. In other words, the Ripple CEO is in no position to reprimand Strategy and Michael Saylor when they have similar approaches to the market.

Trader Challenges Garlinghouse’s Comments on Strategy

Over the weekend, CryptoPotato reported that Garlinghouse said during an interview with CNBC that Strategy’s Bitcoin model is hurting the crypto market. The leading Bitcoin treasury firm broke its BTC purchase streak weeks ago and sold some part of its holdings. The move sparked an uproar in the market, as the company has been one of the major drivers of BTC demand.

Although Strategy subsequently resumed BTC purchases, that sale triggered a lot of criticism from big names and market experts. Garlinghouse was of the opinion that Saylor has not been focused on how to build a strategy around the right features of BTC. He said the company’s purchase model added some excitement as BTC rallied; however, the same approach is now compounding negatively as the asset declines.

To the Ripple CEO, Strategy has been using a leveraged purchase model through the company’s Stretch stock, STRC. With the stock trading 25% below its par price of $100, the market is beginning to witness how Strategy’s model compounds negatively when BTC corrects. Garlinghouse believes Strategy should focus on creating long-term value and utility, not financial engineering through its BTC funding model.

Two Giants, Same Model

Although Merlijn believes Ripple CEO is right about STRC being in distress, the trader says Garlinghouse should not be attacking Saylor. Since Ripple funds itself by selling XRP from escrow every month, the company shares a similar model with Strategy.

In Merlijn’s eyes, Strategy and Ripple are just two giants with similar funding models that lean on the market they are defending. Since the funding models of both entities contribute to selling pressure for their individual assets, Merlijn sees no point in Garlinghouse’s criticism. It truly is quite ironic that Garlinghouse, who does not champion the “never sell your XRP” mantra, would reprimand Strategy for one bitcoin sale.

The post Crypto Analyst Challenges Ripple’s CEO Take on Strategy: ‘Two Giants, Same Model’ appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Blockchain payments company Ripple has released its 2025 Annual Impact Report, detailing support for education, financial inclusion, sustainability, and humanitarian programs. Since 2018, the company has donated more than $250 million, including over $70 million contributed in 2025.

The report also highlighted how Ripple’s blockchain tools, including the XRP Ledger and the RLUSD stablecoin, supported projects focused on economic opportunity and financial access. These efforts included programs in emerging markets, microfinance, and humanitarian aid through partnerships with nonprofit organizations.

Ripple Expands Its Global Impact

Ripple committed $25 million in RLUSD to support underserved U.S. small business owners and career programs for military veterans. The company also helped partners deploy $53.6 million and supported nearly 12,000 water and sanitation loans through Water.org.

Several non-profit partners described Ripple’s funding as long-term support rather than one-time donations. The International Rescue Committee also continued exploring stablecoins as a tool for delivering faster cash assistance during humanitarian emergencies.

The report also outlined Ripple’s support for blockchain research and education through its University Blockchain Research Initiative. Now in its seventh year, the program spans 62 universities, has awarded $74 million since 2018, and supported 198 XRPL projects in 2025.

Research funded through the initiative covered stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, decentralized finance infrastructure, cryptographic security, interoperability, artificial intelligence governance, and blockchain applications. Some projects focused on quantum-resistant improvements for the XRP Ledger, privacy technologies, and tools to detect price manipulation in decentralized finance markets.

Progress Across Climate and Community Initiatives

Ripple’s report highlighted its environmental efforts through blockchain-based climate projects. The company said it has invested $31 million in climate initiatives and retired 1,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through sustainable aviation fuel credits in 2025. It also plans to retire 93,000 tonnes by 2030.

Beyond environmental initiatives, Ripple said employee participation reached its highest level since the program began. About 80% of employees joined volunteering and donation efforts, supporting 544 nonprofit organizations while raising $550,000 for charitable causes.

Alongside these social and environmental efforts, Ripple highlighted broader blockchain adoption through its programs. The firm said active users increased 37% and transactions rose 113% year over year. Tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger expanded from $24.7 million to $568 million during 2025, while total network transactions surpassed 3.8 billion.

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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said XRP holders continue to realize more losses than profits, as a key indicator dropped to its lowest level since August 2022. The decline points to intensifying selling pressure as more holders move coins at a loss.

According to the firm’s June 25 update, the 90-day simple moving average of XRP’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio fell to 0.33 from 0.38 on June 9. The metric compares realized profits with realized losses from coins moved on-chain and helps measure the market’s overall profitability.

Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio Signals Deepening Capitulation

A reading above 1 indicates that realized profits exceed realized losses, while a value below 1 shows that losses dominate. At the current level, the ratio implies that only 33 cents of profit is realized for every one dollar of realized losses.

Glassnode noted that the ratio reached about 50 during XRP’s 2025 market peak, reflecting a period when profit-taking significantly outweighed loss-making sales. The sharp decline since then points to a major shift in market conditions, with more holders exiting their positions at a loss.

Based on these readings, the analytics firm said the market is showing signs of intense capitulation among participants moving coins on-chain. It added that the continued weakness in the ratio suggests capitulation pressure has become more pronounced in recent weeks.

Transaction Fees Decline Alongside Holder Profitability

Separate data shared by the firm on June 9 also showed a steep reduction in activity on the XRP Ledger. The 90-day average of total transaction fees dropped from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to about 500 XRP, representing a decline of roughly 91.5%.

Together, Glassnode’s charts suggest that weakening network activity has accompanied the deterioration in holder profitability. The realized profit-to-loss ratio climbed sharply during the 2025 rally before falling steadily through late 2025 and into 2026. Total transaction fees followed a similar downward path after the speculative peak.

The weak on-chain readings have prompted mixed interpretations among market participants. Some market participants on X said such low readings could indicate sellers are becoming exhausted. Others pointed to XRP remaining above the $1 level despite the weak profitability data.

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Over the past week, bitcoin (BTC) has traded between $62,000 and $72,000. Despite bullish conditions not being fulfilled, the leading digital asset has managed to hold its floor.

Analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report that the current crypto market environment is being reshaped by shifting Federal Reserve expectations and inflation risks. These factors have created near-term pressure for risk assets like gold and BTC; regardless, the floor of the latter has remained intact.

Bitcoin in Limbo

On-chain data shows that neither bulls nor bears are firmly in control. With BTC trading within the $62,500–$72,000 consolidation zone, the market appears to be in limbo, rather than a sustained bearish phase.

Bitfinex analysts outlined two bullish tests for a potential sustained uptrend on lower timeframes, but they all failed. The tests were a sustained spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market bid and a calming of the derivatives complex, with funding moving from neutral to negative.

In the face of the failure, there are now two opposing forces pulling at market sentiment on inflation: the potential of softening energy risks following a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran and the Fed’s focus on inflationary heat rather than the immediate relief in crude prices.

For BTC to continue holding its floor, the Fed needs to be willing to “hold its nerve,” according to experts. It remains to be seen how the market will move until this happens.

Fragile Bullish Conditions

Analysts further explained that ETFs are currently the primary proof of the market’s indecisiveness. These products have failed to establish a bullish trend and have instead reverted to net redemptions. The total volume traded across ETFs has declined significantly, but it is still not low enough to support a bearish case. So they are also in a state of limbo, and not a bear market.

Nevertheless, a structural perspective indicates that BTC is trading below the active-investor cost basis. The $68,500–$72,000 zone remains the primary overhead supply band, and analysts expect further compression within the $62,000–$64,000 range, or broader movements between $60,000 and $70,000 in the coming days.

As the market gives in to either the bulls or the bears, the $68,500–$72,000 range is expected to act as significant resistance, as many investors in this range are at a loss and are likely to sell at break-even. So, BTC now has three key levels: the $54,000 foundational floor, the $72,000 break-even point for recent buyers, and the $77,200 hurdle for short-term holders.

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Recent findings by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) have revealed shocking details about the promotional content of the prediction platform, Polymarket. As reported, the majority of the winning bets that drove the platform’s viral growth were staged on copycat versions of its website.

According to a report from WSJ, Polymarket paid college-age creators to stage up to $1.9 million in fake bets. The investigation team assembled by WSJ reviewed at least 1,105 videos posted by these creators and found none of them to be real; they had no blockchain trace and could not be verified by any digital ledger.

Fake Bets, Fake Winnings

At the core of the Polymarket business campaign is the claim that all trades are settled in USD Coin (USDC) on the Polygon blockchain. These trades are public and can be verified by anyone. While the prediction platform has led its campaigns with this claim, the company’s promotional content suggests otherwise.

Polymarket has been paying creators $2,000 to $3,000 a month to post videos of bets seemingly placed and won on its website. However, in reality, those trades were placed on dummy sites created to mirror the real platform.

Out of more than 1,000 betting videos from 10 creators promoted between December 2025 and mid-May 2026, none were real. While marketing firms pushed the videos to get more views, the creators were told to refrain from disclosing that they received payments for the clips. As part of the scheme, the creators often altered headlines and used outdated footage to imply they won the bets, even when the winnings were fake.

Polymarket Back in the U.S.

Interestingly, the same bets that won millions in the promotional clips incurred losses for traders in reality. About 118 clips reviewed by WSJ showed creators celebrating roughly $900,000 in wins; however, in reality, the same bets would have incurred over $166,000 in losses.

Furthermore, a creator claimed they won $100,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump said the word “McDonald’s” in January. As discovered during the investigation, Trump never said the word publicly that month, and the clip used to justify the winning was older. Unfortunately, at least 50 accounts that actually placed that bet on Polymarket all lost.

As concerns about the promotional content arise and investigations intensify, many of those creators have removed the fake bet-winning videos from their social media accounts. Additionally, Polymarket has taken down the dummy website, poiymarket.com.

These accusations come as Polymarket re-enters the United States after securing a greenlight from regulators. The platform intends to audit its promotional content following the revelations.

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The Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchain network, Algorand, has revealed that it is pushing toward becoming quantum-resistant by the end of 2027. The announcement comes as concerns about the post-quantum threat rise in the crypto space.

According to a blog post by the network’s team, the quantum threat has been deemed a serious risk to the security of blockchain technology. Hence, Algorand has outlined a roadmap detailing its efforts, plans, progress, milestones, and ongoing research in the area of post-quantum cryptography (PQC).

Algorand Pushes for Quantum Resistance

Google Quantum AI recently identified Algorand among a set of smart-contract platforms that can achieve PQC. The blockchain already executed its first PQC-secured transaction in 2025 and intends to complete the full PQC transition in less than two years.

“Post-quantum migration is a balancing act. Moving too slowly leaves systems exposed to future quantum attacks, but moving too quickly can mean relying on algorithms and implementations that have not yet been sufficiently battle-tested,” Algorand’s team explained.

The first step in the roadmap is introducing support for native post-quantum accounts in the protocol release scheduled for the third quarter of 2026. Previously enabled Falcon accounts via the Algorand Virtual Machine (AVM) currently demonstrate the viability of post-quantum signatures on the Algorand protocol, but these are not natively supported by the ledger. The introduction of native post-quantum account support will give room for network-level support for multiple concurrent signature schemes.

After the Algorand team establishes a clear direction for standardizing a new derivation scheme for lattice-based post-quantum keys, the network will implement PQC updates to its tools. These include legacy software development kits (SDKs), hardware wallets, and the AlgoKit. Eventually, the network will introduce support for additional signature schemes on traditional Ed25519 accounts.

Exploring Post-Quantum Multisignatures

While implementing these upgrades, Algorand intends to create an environment that enables the integration of future advances with minimal protocol disruption.

“Building on our robust history of native multisig, the arrival of cryptographic agility and native post-quantum accounts enables us to deploy native multisig support for multi-cryptography schemes by the end of 2026. We view this as an essential advancement for institutional operations, treasury management, and high-stakes financial applications,” the team explained.

One of the final steps in the roadmap explores post-quantum multisignatures as a generic policy layer over independently verifiable signatures. This will allow for weighted approvals, hybrid combinations of classical and post-quantum signers, and future PQC signature algorithms as standards develop. This step will ensure protection against both classical and quantum-era threats.

Meanwhile, Algorand is not the only blockchain network pushing for quantum resistance in the coming years; Ethereum and Ripple are working towards the milestone as well.

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Despite the bears still being in control, the Bitcoin network is seeing a surge in transaction activity. Given the nature of this network activity, market participants may wonder whether the development is a bullish signal or a cause for concern.

According to this week’s CryptoQuant report, record-high transaction counts are driving the surge in Bitcoin network activity. The only issue is that these transactions have little, non-significant economic value.

Bitcoin Network Activity is Surging

CryptoQuant analysts explained that Bitcoin’s network activity turned sharply positive and broke above trend for the first time since late 2024. This is evident in the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, which has been rising steadily since the beginning of this year. However, the index noted a major regime shift from March 2026, drawing a sharp contrast with bitcoin’s ongoing price decline.

Currently, the Bitcoin network activity is roughly 7% below its all-time high reached in September 2024. Both total daily transactions and average transactions per block are near their all-time high. Daily transactions have surged to levels above 800,000, hovering near readings of the 2023-2025 bull cycle.

“Mean transactions per block (right chart) have also risen sharply, reflecting high and sustained block utilization from the transaction count perspective. Both metrics have maintained elevated readings for several weeks, confirming the surge is structural,” analysts explained.

No Significant Economic Activity

Although these transactions are reaching yearly peaks, their economic content is significantly lower than surges from previous high-activity periods. About 80% of these micro-transactions are below 0.01 BTC, up from 50% in 2023. The sub-0.001 BTC cohorts have also skyrocketed in 2026, approaching prior peaks of 2024. The current dynamic reflects protocol-driven activity where volume is high but transferred value per transaction remains low.

Notably, the micro-transaction surge correlates with a rise in OP_RETURN opcode usage, which is used by data-inscription protocols like Runes and Ordinals. The opcode, which embeds up to 100,000 bytes of data without creating spendable outputs, has spiked to near-record levels this year. The protocols associated with the opcode generate high volumes of dust-value transactions, so this explains the low-value cohort surge.

Meanwhile, the surge in both micro-transactions and OP-RETURN has pushed the Bitcoin mempool to its highest transaction count since late February 2025. Analysts worry that this sustained expansion in non-financial on-chain activity could increase block space competition and raise fees for economic transactions.

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Following a wave of selling pressure that pulled bitcoin (BTC) below $60,000 two weeks ago, analysts have highlighted on-chain data that signals possible seller exhaustion, which is further substantiated by a reprieve in macroeconomic conditions.

According to analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex, the market is witnessing a transition into late-stage capitulation rather than a broader distribution phase. This translates to constant selling pressure among previous buyers of BTC, like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and treasury companies.

Bitcoin Sellers Are Getting Exhausted

Recent bitcoin buyers aggressively turned into sellers after the asset’s price fell below $75,000. Since then, demand for the cryptocurrency has been completely agnostic to price. These buyers are now realizing losses at an accelerating pace, as evidenced by the $1.35 billion in daily realized losses in June’s first trading week.

As selling pressure persists, analysts added that the market is in a transitional phase that reflects a typical post-liquidation structure. This dynamic often appears once the primary wave of forced selling from distressed investor cohorts exhaust themselves.

Although current loss realization levels are enough to confirm deep bear conditions, they have not reached the intensity required to establish a definitive bottom. Market experts believe that demand levels will determine whether this consolidation transforms into a concrete support floor or acts as a temporary pause before a deeper plunge.

“What the tape shows is seller exhaustion arriving at the same moment as a macro reprieve, which is a different condition from genuine demand. The price action that follows each behaves very differently, which leads us to believe that despite the short-term recovery, bulls face significant hurdles before an uptrend can form,” analysts explained.

Demand Still the Most Important Driver

Looking back at the market’s moves on June 5, Bitfinex’s analysts believe crypto lows were a front-running of a global meltdown across risk assets. For the first time in six years, risk asset correlations broke down and commodities, equities, and yields all declined.

While most risk assets, including BTC, have recovered, dynamics intertwining inflation, energy markets, and monetary policy have dominated the U.S. macro environment. There is also some form of relief amid easing geopolitical tensions, particularly signs of a potential US-Iran agreement. If the agreement holds, there could be a ripple effect that would affect macro dynamics that continue to shape digital markets.

Regardless of the outcome of the geopolitical situation, liquidity conditions remain a more important driver than traditional safe-haven narratives. So, demand remains bitcoin’s biggest challenge for an upward rally.

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Analysts at the crypto exchange Bybit have highlighted factors that contributed to bitcoin (BTC) recording its worst single-week percentage decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022. According to the report, the decline was not triggered by random panic from the market, but was a result of a structural breakdown that had been building for weeks.

As reported in the Bybit Options Weekly Review, multiple forces hit simultaneously: stronger U.S. jobs data, record outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and Strategy challenging its “never sell BTC” narrative.

BTC Decline Signals Technical Breakdown

During the week ending June 8, BTC fell from $73,760 to $59,130 for the first time since October 2024. Although a wave of dip-buying and short-covering quickly brought the asset’s price back above $61,000, the plunge signaled a technical breakdown that had been brewing beneath the surface.

Ether’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to a reading of 12.78, which is the most extreme oversold reading in history. At the same time, bitcoin’s RSI also fell to 15.45 at the same time.

Combined, this is the most oversold signal this cycle has produced, indicating a market-wide capitulation event. Such moves indicate that investors are panic selling with no regard for prices. Although readings at these levels have historically preceded technical bounces, it does not confirm that the bottom is in.

No Bullish Reversal Confirmed

On the options market front, put options were delivered after a confirmed technical breakdown, and the Deribit Volatility Index (DVOL) spiked from historic lows near 35 to around 55. DVOL measures the 30-day annualized expected implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum options. The metric provides real-time, forward-looking analysis of expected price swings, overall fear and greed, and market uncertainty.

The surge from 35 to 55 gave downside traders a double tailwind from both falling price and rising implied volatility. The metric is now pulling back from the spike and hovering around 48, indicating that the panic volume expansion is fading and the initial shock is absorbed.

On the macro front, stronger U.S. jobs data reignited rate hike fears. With the current labor market strength ruling out any near-term dovish pivot, analysts see every positive employment print as a negative for risk assets that are priced on rate cut expectations.

Moreover, Strategy sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million, breaking the “never sell” belief that gave holders their sense of structural security. Although the company has resumed buying, investors still appear concerned about the systemic signal behind the sale.

Bybit concluded by clarifying that although BTC and ETH are in extreme oversold conditions, the market has not confirmed a reversal. ETF outflows need to stabilize, and macro conditions need to be resolved before a positive outlook is assured.

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Historical on-chain data suggest that bitcoin (BTC) may be nearing a bottom in this bear market, but demand conditions signal the asset still has a long way to go.

According to this week’s CryptoQuant report, the unfavorable spot and speculative futures demand conditions leave the BTC bottom unconfirmed. Either BTC significantly recovers in the coming weeks or the asset plunges to lower price levels.

Is BTC Near a Bottom?

Following the decline to a fresh bear market low of $59,000 last week, BTC now hovers roughly 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Analysts say this valuation level has historically been associated with bear market bottoms across past cycles. The realized price also represents the aggregate on-chain cost basis of all market participants, marking one of the most crucial valuation anchors in Bitcoin’s on-chain framework.

Past bear seasons always ended at prices near or marginally below the realized price. The only time BTC briefly pierced the realized price before a structural rebound was in November 2022 during the defunct crypto exchange FTX saga. So, from a valuation perspective, BTC may be close to a structural floor where accumulation phases began.

While on-chain data suggests an optimistic outlook, demand conditions suggest otherwise. It is a no-brainer that BTC needs strong, sustained demand to handle a structural rebound. With both speculative and apparent spot demand in contraction, the bullish reversal may take time to develop.

Total demand from both speculative futures and apparent spot fell to -652,000 last week, marking the largest contraction since January 2022. Even long-term spot demand, which is the apparent demand growth seen in a year, has turned negative and fallen to its most severe level since February 2024.

Demand Conditions Unfavorable for Bullish Reversal

The spot ETF market, on the other hand, is contracting at the fastest pace since the launch in January 2024. The 30-day ETF demand growth is currently at an unprecedented negative reading, according to analysts. This shows that U.S. institutional demand has stalled and even reversed to net selling, contributing to supply expansion.

In addition, realized losses from Bitcoin holders have not reached capitulation levels. The absence of a capitulation spike indicates that sellers are not yet exhausted.

“Until total demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation-level peaks, the current price level should be interpreted as a valuation floor candidate, not a confirmed cycle bottom,” CryptoQuant concluded.

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Analysts at the market research firm Glassnode have highlighted on-chain data indicating a weakening of speculative appetite for bitcoin (BTC) in traditional finance (TradFi) markets.

According to a tweet from the firm, most TradFi channels for Bitcoin exposure are giving off the same signal: BTC volume in treasury vehicles and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is drying up.

Speculative Interest in BTC Cools

One metric that substantiates Glassnode’s claims is the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the United States spot ETF trading volume. This indicator has contracted from $4.4 billion per day in October 2025 to roughly $0.96 billion daily currently. This shift represents a 78% decline, one significant enough to dry up volumes.

CryptoPotato reported that last week was the second worst for Bitcoin ETFs since their inception. As BTC fell to a 19-month low, the ETFs experienced massive net outflows, totaling $1.72 billion. The last time the products witnessed such withdrawals was in February 2025.

Glassnode revealed earlier today that the 30-day SMA of total trading volume across Bitcoin treasury companies has also plummeted from $34.2 billion per day in December 2025 to $17.4 billion per day currently. This 49% drop in trading volume among Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies further reflects a lack of speculative appetite for BTC in traditional channels, as interest in DAT equities closely tracks bitcoin’s price.

“Combined with the 49% drop in DAT company volumes flagged earlier, both TradFi channels for Bitcoin exposure are signaling the same thing: Speculative appetite for BTC in traditional markets has largely withdrawn,” Glassnode explained.

Spot Demand Contracts Too

Besides the decline in speculative and leveraged appetite for BTC exposure, spot demand has also pulled back significantly. This can be seen in investors selling into strength instead of increasing their exposure. As reported, the dynamic shift marks the transition from an accumulation phase into a distribution regime, subsequently leading to the cutting of Bitcoin activity in half from its peak.

At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $62,500, 22% below its price of $80,900 a month ago. The asset slipped below $60,000 last weekend amid selling pressure from investors. These are all clear indications that spot demand is in a contraction phase.

With institutional interest weakening and spot demand contracting, it remains to be seen how low BTC will go as the bears continue to steer the wheel.

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The bullish impulse of the Bitcoin market has exhausted itself, and bitcoin has now entered a distribution phase. This can be seen in investors increasingly selling into strength rather than increasing their exposure.

According to this week’s Bitfinex Alpha report, both flow data and on-chain dynamics indicate that BTC has transitioned out of the accumulation phase that drove its rally earlier this year. This signals the onset of a period of heavy selling pressure that could see BTC slump to levels last seen in early to mid 2024.

Bitcoin Enters Distribution Regime

Bitcoin already slipped below $60,000 on June 5 amid large outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) and persistent macroeconomic headwinds. Although the asset has rebounded in the last two days and climbed back above that level, analysts believe the recovery may be hiding a more important shift beneath the surface, which is the transition into a distribution regime.

During the decline last week, BTC fell to a multi-year low of $59,200, a level last seen in October 2024. This price also represented a 53% drawdown from the October 2025 all-time high (ATH), a 28.5% fall from levels recorded in mid-May, and a 20% plunge from the June monthly open. BTC was unable to sustain the $60,000 floor, which has been a price anchor since February.

With BTC having retreated to its Q1 2026 consolidation zone, the asset faces two possible scenarios – the best being a motion range between $60,000 and $72,000. On the other hand, the worst-case scenario is price discovery at levels not seen since the maturation of the spot ETF market.

BTC Faces Worst Case Scenario

Analysts say the worst scenario will play out if BTC breaks through $60,000 for a sustained period of time. Bitcoin’s current moves are already confined within previous range lows, due to catalysts like ETF outflows and Strategy’s BTC sales.

Other factors contributing to bitcoin’s current price trend are rising energy prices, stronger-than-expected labor market data, and tightening financial conditions from the Federal Reserve. However, the most significant factor is the contraction of spot demand as seen in the sharp reversal in Spot Cumulative Volume Delta.

“Spot Cumulative Volume Delta has transitioned into a clear negative regime, touching depths reminiscent of the large liquidations seen in February. The data confirms that aggressive distribution, especially by recent buyers, is currently the dominant force on exchange order books,” analysts explained.

As with previous distribution phases, BTC can only transition back into an accumulation regime when sustained spot demand returns.

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The broader crypto market may be experiencing bearish conditions, but XRP whales appear to be in a league of their own. Latest on-chain data suggests this cohort of investors is selling fewer tokens on exchanges, raising the question of whether they are becoming more confident in the asset.

According to an analysis by CryptoQuant researcher Pelinay, decreased selling from XRP whales, coupled with stronger demand, could trigger a rally and help the sixth-largest cryptocurrency revisit the $1.8-$2 range.

Binance Records Subdued Whale Inflows

Pelinay’s analysis cited data from the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance. Transfers of more than 1 million XRP started to decline in 2025 and have maintained that trend this year. Before the decline began, these forms of transfers were dominant on charts during certain periods, reflecting huge inflows from whales and institutional addresses.

The inflows remained consistently high between 2021 and 2025, indicating that most of these market participants used Binance.

After a 2025 peak, the 1 million+ XRP inflows began to slow down, reflecting weakening selling pressure from large holders. The decline intensified after U.S. authorities approved spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating a reduced willingness among whales to offload their holdings.

XRP Price Still Down

Evaluating historical data, there is a clear trend of sharp spikes in the 100,000-1 million XRP and 1 million+ XRP inflows preceding major market downturns. This means inflows from these investor cohorts have increased selling pressure to the point where the asset takes major hits.

“At the far right of the chart, no such extraordinary surge is currently visible. As a result, on-chain data does not point to aggressive whale selling or widespread profit-taking at this stage,” Pelinay stated, referring to the Binance XRP inflow chart.

Although whales have been selling less XRP since 2025, the asset’s price has still retreated from the $3 region. At the time of writing, XRP was trading around $1.10, down 10% weekly and 5% in 24 hours. Pelinay attributed this price movement to leverage liquidations and broader market weakness due to the bear cycle.

At the end of the day, XRP can only climb higher if demand becomes stronger and inflows into Binance remain poor. This is because the available supply will continue to decrease while demand accelerates.

“As long as there is no renewed surge in the 1M+ XRP inflow category, this constructive market structure may remain intact,” the analyst added.

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On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has reported a sharp deterioration in key XRP network metrics, pointing to weakening activity and mounting pressure on holders. Recent data shows both transaction demand and realized profitability have fallen significantly despite the token trading well above its 2024 levels.

The decline in holder profitability is particularly evident in Glassnode’s latest realized profit-and-loss data. According to the firm, the 90-day simple moving average of XRP’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has dropped to 0.38. This indicates that market participants are realizing only 38 cents in profits for every dollar of losses recorded on-chain.

Profitability Ratio Signals Deep Stress

The profitability metric remains well below the breakeven level of 1.0, a threshold that separates net profit-taking from net loss realization. During strong bull market phases, the ratio often rises far above 20 or even 50 as profitable selling dominates network activity.

The latest reading suggests a very different market environment, with loss-taking outweighing profit-taking by a wide margin. The analytics firm noted that such low levels are commonly associated with capitulation periods. In these phases, a large share of transacted coins belong to holders exiting positions at a loss.

Signs of weakness are also emerging in broader network activity. Glassnode reported that the 90-day simple moving average of total transaction fees on the XRP Ledger has fallen significantly. It dropped from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to approximately 500 XRP today, a decline of more than 91% over the period.

Ecosystem Under Persistent Pressure

The recent figures reinforce concerns highlighted by Glassnode in late 2025 regarding the condition of XRP holders. In November of that year, the firm reported that only 58.5% of the circulating supply remained in profit.

Those concerns were reflected in earlier market conditions. That figure marked the lowest percentage recorded since November 2024, when XRP traded near $0.53. At the time, roughly 41.5% of the supply, equivalent to about 26.5 billion XRP, was held at a loss despite the token trading around $2.15.

Together, the declining profitability metrics and reduced network activity suggest continued stress across the XRP ecosystem. The data indicates that a significant portion of holders remain under pressure while transaction demand stays well below previous cycle highs.

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After losing almost 60% of its value, ZEC, the native asset of the privacy network Zcash, is finally recovering. Within the past few days, the coin has rallied above $400, retracing its steps from the $300 range.

The price recovery comes as the Zcash team unveils an upgrade that will patch an integrity flaw in the network. The Ironwood Upgrade, scheduled for late July, aims to enable users to independently verify the circulating ZEC supply, preventing the minting of counterfeit coins.

Zcash’s Ironwood Upgrade Scheduled for July

The need to deploy the Ironwood upgrade arose after a series of events that began after Zcash researcher Taylor Hornby discovered a vulnerability affecting the network’s latest shielded pool named Orchard. Hornby discovered a counterfeiting vulnerability in Orchard, and the network’s team had to deploy a two-stage upgrade to fix the issue by June 2.

Amid an uproar from the crypto community, developers admitted that there was no way to confirm whether attackers had exploited the vulnerability before the fix. They said it was possible that bad actors had minted counterfeit ZEC coins through the bug, increasing the circulating supply. However, there was no way to audit the circulating ZEC supply and confirm that no such thing had happened. Hence, the Ironwood upgrade.

Upon its activation in late July, the upgrade will implement a turnstile mechanism to protect Zcash users from hypothetical counterfeit coins. It will mark the transition of ZEC from the Orchard to the Ironwood pool, allowing people running nodes to audit total supply without trusting developers.

Notably, the Ironwood pool uses the same Orchard protocol, but starts fresh. Wallets will no longer send or receive payments on the old Orchard pool; the funds will be redirected to the new Ironwood pool. These changes will not surface to the users.

ZEC Recovers, Rallies Above $470

One key significance of the Ironwood upgrade is the reassurance it will give to the Zcash community that no counterfeiting occurred before the Orchard bug was fixed. This will hopefully prevent more selloffs that could lead to a significant decline in the asset’s price as witnessed last weekend.

Shortly after news of the Zcash bug began to make the rounds, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sold off his entire ZEC holdings. Hayes’ exit from his ZEC position significantly increased selling pressure on the asset as fear, uncertainty, and doubt spread, dragging the coin close to $255 from $578.

As developers are working to address the issue, ZEC has risen more than 56% this week. At the time of writing, the asset was changing hands above $470, per data from CoinMarketCap.

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The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is set to activate version 3.2.0 of its core server software on June 15. While the update does not introduce major user-facing features, it includes several changes aimed at improving the network’s long-term operation.

Among the most notable is the renaming of the server software from “rippled” to “xrpld,” a move intended to better reflect the broader XRPL ecosystem and reduce confusion with other Ripple-related products.

Improving Network Efficiency And Stability

Following the upgrade, node operators checking their software versions will see “xrpld 3.2.0” displayed in the command line. Developers said the change reflects the growing independence and technical maturity of the XRP Ledger infrastructure.

The release also delivers significant performance improvements across the network. According to developers, server memory usage may drop by as much as 40%, allowing nodes to operate more efficiently under higher demand.

Beyond memory optimization, the update introduces additional system-wide refinements. These changes are designed to improve overall network efficiency. They also support higher transaction throughput as activity expands across decentralized finance, tokenization, and real-world asset applications.

In addition to performance upgrades, version 3.2.0 includes multiple bug fixes and technical refinements. Improvements to number handling, rounding logic, and core code maintenance are aimed at strengthening network stability without affecting end-user experience.

Notably, the upcoming release follows the deployment of version 3.1.3 on the XRPL mainnet in late May. That earlier update fixed issues involving NFTs, Permissioned Domains, Vaults, the Lending Protocol, and Multi-Purpose Tokens.

Most XRPL Nodes Already Upgraded

Network data indicates that about 84% of XRPL nodes have already adopted version 3.1.3. This level of adoption suggests the ecosystem is preparing for a relatively smooth migration to the new software version.

Developers are encouraging validators and node operators to update their systems before the activation date. Servers that remain on older versions may face limitations in participating fully in consensus and other network functions after the upgrade.

In addition to upgrade readiness, the release also includes ongoing security enhancements behind the scenes. Expanded AI-assisted testing and active bug bounty efforts are part of broader measures designed to strengthen the ledger. These efforts aim to improve resilience as institutional and blockchain-based use cases continue to expand.

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In the latest edition of the weekly CryptoQuant report, analysts have revealed a surge in traditional finance (TradFi) perpetual futures activity even as demand for bitcoin (BTC) remains contracted. Even with the declining demand, BTC trade sizes have signaled significant institutional activity.

According to the report, the rising TradFi perpetual futures activity can be seen in crypto exchanges, with Gate and Binance leading the trend. In fact, most exchanges are now diversifying beyond cryptocurrencies and tapping into precious metal-related trading activity.

TradFi Perpetual Futures See Increased Activity

CryptoQuant noted that the uptick in TradFi perpetual futures activity is driven by rising demand for gold, silver, and oil amid geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This trend underscores the growing convergence of traditional and crypto markets; market participants are now using crypto exchanges to access macro assets.

Gate is leading the crypto-TradFi convergence market with $368 billion in TradFi perpetual futures volume. Together with Binance, which accounts for $298 billion, the two exchanges have processed roughly two-thirds of all TradFi futures trading volume recorded so far this year. Although other exchanges like MEXC, Bitget, and Bybit also partake in the market share, Gate remains the leader with investments in tokenized stocks, metals, 24/7 derivatives markets, and indices.

“As gold and silver prices reached record highs amid persistent inflation concerns, global equities rallied to new highs driven by AI-related optimism, and oil prices surged following heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, traders increasingly turned to crypto exchanges to gain exposure through 24/7 markets,” analysts stated.

Spot and Perpetual Trading Volumes Decline

As TradFi futures activity spikes, spot trading volume declines on centralized exchanges. This metric fell to $679 billion in April 2026, slumping to the lowest level since October 2023. This reflects a decline in activity, thanks to the bear market. Perpetual futures volumes declined alongside, with leverage appetite contracting. Notably, Binance, Bybit, Gate, and Crypto.com rank as the top platforms by cumulative spot volume so far in 2026.

Interestingly, Bitcoin liquidity has remained concentrated on a small group of exchanges, with Binance and Gate dominating spot market depth, while Gate, Hyperliquid, Binance, OKX, and Bitget lead perpetual futures liquidity.

Additionally, Gate leads institutional BTC activity, as seen in Bitcoin trade sizes on spot and futures markets. The exchange accounts for the highest average Bitcoin spot trade size ($4,000) after reaching a high of $6,200 per trade last year. For the perpetual futures market, Gate also leads with an average of $8,900, sustaining growth that started last year.

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As bitcoin (BTC) continues to weather the storms of the bear market, the asset’s OG holders are waking up. A few days ago, an anonymous holder redeemed a physical bitcoin 15 years after it was created, receiving 25 BTC from the redemption.

According to a tweet from Galaxy Research, the physical coin redeemed is an S1-COIN-25, part of the Casascius coins created between 2011 and 2013. The redemption netted over $1.78 million in bitcoin, calculated at current prices.

OG Holder Redeems 25 BTC

A Casascius coin is a physical token created by the early Bitcoin adopter and software engineer Mike Caldwell. The tokens were created with denominations of 0.5, 1, 5, 10, 25, 100, and 1,000 BTC, meaning they held real digital bitcoins. With receiving bitcoin addresses printed on the outside, each coin has a tamper-evident hologram concealing the matching private key at the back.

Caldwell created brass, fine silver, gold-plated coins, and gold-plated bars, with their sizes ranging from 25.4 mm to 30 mm in diameter. The bars would weigh about 12 ounces if they were solid gold, but since they are metal alloys with gold plating, they weigh 4.2 ounces instead. They were all available as pre-loaded BTC coins and bars and are currently available on secondary markets like eBay, even though Caldwell stopped production in 2013 because he was operating as a money transmitter without a license.

To redeem the coins, one has to peel the hologram at the back of the token to retrieve the private keys. The coin’s balance can be verified on platforms like Block Explorer by inputting the eight-character code seen on the outside of the coin.

From Conversation Pieces to Storage Vessels

Over the last 15 years, Casascius coin holders have redeemed their tokens for BTC, netting millions of dollars in profits. Some of the coins were worth less than $100 dollars at creation, but bitcoin’s rally over the years has increased their value significantly. These coins were created as conversation pieces to help talk to people about BTC; however, they ended up as forms of storing the asset long after their production.

The Casascius coin that was redeemed within the week was created in December 2011 alongside thousands of other coins. In fact, data from the Casascius tracker shows that there are 27,916 coins and bars in existence, 10,479 of those having been opened. The collective value of the coins and bars created now stands above $6.2 billion, given bitcoin’s latest price.

Meanwhile, the latest redemption comes as other OG holders wake up to move long-dormant assets.

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Flare Network’s XRP-based decentralized finance ecosystem reached a new milestone with an automated liquidity rollover. The process moved over $4 million in capital between fixed-term yield markets without disrupting trading activity.

The rollover took place on June 4, 2026, when the largest stXRP fixed-term pool on Spectra Finance reached maturity. Managed through GamiLabs’ FXRP MetaVault, the process automatically transferred liquidity into successor pools expiring on August 27 and November 26, 2026.

How MetaVaults Managed the stXRP Liquidity Transition

MetaVaults were introduced in February 2026 to address operational challenges associated with fixed-term yield tokenization. The system uses a single smart contract to monitor expiries, select new markets, and route liquidity according to predefined on-chain rules.

Under the model, liquidity providers deposit assets once and receive a vault token representing their position. The vault then manages future rollovers automatically, removing the need for users to manually withdraw and redeploy funds whenever a market expires.

The transition addresses a long-standing issue in fixed-term DeFi markets known as the expiry cliff. In many cases, maturing pools lead to fragmented liquidity and reduced market activity as participants move capital into new pools.

During the June rollover, liquidity was already available in the replacement markets before the original pool matured. This helped maintain continuous market depth and avoided the disruption often associated with fixed-term expiries.

The significance of the rollover was amplified by the scale of the maturing market. The stXRP pool recorded more than $25 million in lifetime trading volume during its four-month duration. By May, it was delivering double-digit fixed rates, reflecting sustained activity ahead of expiry.

Spectra Finance Yield Infrastructure

Spectra Finance remains one of the most active yield trading platforms on Flare, supporting structured yield products through FXRP. FXRP serves as a trustless and overcollateralized representation of XRP within Flare’s FAssets framework.

GamiLabs oversees the FXRP MetaVault, while Firelight issues stXRP used within the ecosystem. Together with Spectra’s protocol infrastructure, these components support a growing market for XRP-denominated yield strategies.

The operational impact of this structure is highlighted by comments from Spectra Finance co-founder Gaspard Peduzzi. According to him, the MetaVault framework turns expiry events into continuous market transitions. He added that this approach could support deeper and more efficient XRP yield markets by reducing operational friction linked to fixed-term maturities.

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Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, recorded the largest unrealized loss on its BTC holdings of over $10 billion in paper value. This reflects a 17% decline in the value of its position after years of steady accumulation.

The loss comes amid a broader market downturn as Bitcoin crashed to around $61,000 today. The apex coin is now down about 28% year-to-date, marking its weakest level since February.

Strategy Logs $10.47B Paper Loss

The company’s latest portfolio snapshot shows total invested capital at about $63.87 billion against a current valuation of $53.4 billion. This leaves a gap of about $10.47 billion in unrealized losses, alongside a smaller realized loss linked to recent portfolio activity. The figures highlight the continued pressure on its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet after years of accumulation.

That pressure has also coincided with a notable change in its long-standing approach to Bitcoin holdings. The firm sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135 per coin, marking its first departure from a previously consistent no-sell stance.

According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the sale took place between May 26 and May 31 and generated about $2.5 million. The proceeds are expected to support preferred stock distributions, including cash dividend obligations.

Broader market impact is also visible in the company’s equity performance. Strategy stock (MSTR) has declined about 77% from its peak, reflecting sensitivity to Bitcoin’s price movements and balance sheet exposure.

Over the same six-year period of sustained Bitcoin accumulation, the S&P 500 gained roughly 116%. This contrast underscores a widening performance gap between traditional equity benchmarks and firms with concentrated Bitcoin exposure.

Holding Through the Downturn

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor built the company’s Bitcoin strategy in 2020 by converting corporate reserves into digital assets as an inflation hedge. The firm maintains that it will continue holding BTC despite losses, with its strategy focused on long-term exposure rather than short-term stability.

Market observers say the unrealized loss highlights how Bitcoin price swings directly affect corporate balance sheets tied to digital asset exposure. They remain divided on whether the strategy amplifies volatility compared with diversified portfolios during extended downturns.

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Similar to previous bear markets, bitcoin (BTC) is now on track to experience a slow bleed regime. As analysts explained in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, this seasonal pattern is further aggravated by weakening demand from spot and institutional avenues.

Even options traders have stopped paying for protection as implied volatility continues to decline and derivatives fall to multi-month lows. This means they are exhibiting a diminishing appetite for paying high premiums for hedging bets.

Market in Slow Bleed Regime

According to the Bitfinex report, volatility sellers are now in control, contributing to the reduction of the likelihood of large price moves in either direction. With open interest gradually declining, the Bitcoin market is facing a slow bleed regime, rather than a sharp deleveraging event.

Proof of the current market condition is bitcoin’s performance for May. The leading digital asset recorded an early-month rally that pushed it above $82,000, but ended the month lower with BTC falling 12.5% from its local top. Bitfinex analysts said the performance highlighted a growing disconnect between broader macroeconomic conditions and the crypto market.

May’s performance also suggested that internal market dynamics were the major driver of weakness, rather than macro conditions. The transition from a phase of expansion at the beginning of the month to a period of sustained distribution highlights a lack of conviction among crypto market participants, not deteriorating external factors.

A clear sign of the lack of conviction is spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) witnessing $3 billion in cumulative outflows over the past three weeks. Additionally, weakening spot demand, profit-taking from short-term holders, and poor institutional participation erased pillars that supported Bitcoin’s recovery earlier this year. This dynamic made the market more vulnerable to distribution-led selling pressure, according to analysts.

Will June End Negatively Like May?

Furthermore, market experts believe June may end on negative terms just like May if BTC tracks previous bear market patterns.

Seasonal data since 2013 have shown May ending with an average return of 7.36% and a median above 3.5%. While bear seasons in 2018 and 2022 have seen brief recoveries after negative yearly starts, geopolitical tensions have displaced the dynamics over the past two years. Last year was the U.S. tariffs saga, and this year, the Iran conflict. This increases the likelihood of a negative June ending.

However, the prediction for the end of June could be wrong if the market experiences a strong shift in structural inflows from ETFs and institutional products. Aggressive spot accumulation could also change the dynamic and lead to a more positive outcome.

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