September has a bit of a bad rep on Wall Street. The ninth month of the year has historically delivered negative or weaker returns with such consistency that it has even been dubbed "The September Effect."

It's a market anomaly -- an unusual pattern -- but this year it is compounded with real market uncertainty. Among investor concerns: sticky inflation, rising energy prices, hawkish signals from bankers, high yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, a trade war between the U.S. and Canada, an actual war between U.S. and Iran, plus ballooning national debt and continued fears over an AI bubble.

Image source: Getty images.

These are, to be fair, just the negatives, and a complete picture would have to add the positives, such as soaring profits for S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) companies, steady growth in the U.S. economy, and a stock market that is broadening beyond a few megacap leaders.

There is, however, one persistent concern that goes beyond September's historically weak performance. One of the market's most reliable valuation metrics has been flashing a warning light for months. And, if history is any guide, Wall Street won't like what's coming next.

History might be repeating

To be sure, there's no metric that can tell us what's coming next, no metric, for instance, that can predict a crash or correction. But there is one that is pretty good at comparing today's market with predecessors to measure its valuation. That metric would be the CAPE -- and right now, it's in historically high territory.

Data by YCharts.

The CAPE, also known as the Shiller P/E, averages the S&P 500's last decade of inflation-adjusted earnings. It smooths over one-time events, like recessions or profit surges, to give a clearer picture of how expensive stocks are. Higher CAPEs typically signal that the market could be overvalued, while lower ones mean the opposite.

When you look at the chart, you'll notice three figures. There's the average, which, over 155 years, sits at about 18. Then, there's the highest CAPE ever recorded, 44, which came during the dot-com era. Then there's today's CAPE, roughly 41.

A period with a higher-than-average CAPE reading has historically preceded a period with weaker long-term returns. In extreme cases, the former precedes major market declines, corrections, and outright crashes. The two aren't causally related -- a high CAPE reading doesn't cause a market crash -- but the reading does tell us that stocks look historically expensive and are therefore more vulnerable to whatever triggers the next sell-off.

If history repeats itself, today's bull market could end the same way as the dot-com era's. But history doesn't always repeat -- more accurately it rhymes -- and there's no way of asserting with any certainty that today's market is destined for the same catastrophic ending that popped the dot-com bubble. Even if the market did experience a period of weaker returns, many of today's companies could continue growing their earnings and rewarding investors who stuck with them through the turbulence.

What should investors do?

The important thing is not to overreact. Panicking, trying to time the market, or selling great companies indiscriminately could do more damage than a downturn itself.

In fact, the best thing to do right now is to stay invested in companies you believe in no matter what happens in the larger market. That's easier said than done. Instincts take over when heavy losses are piling up and bad headlines are coming in from every side. You might even think yourself foolish for staying invested -- but history has often rewarded investors willing to look a little foolish in that sense.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Imagine a city free from rush-hour traffic -- not a city that literally doesn't have cars (like, say, Venice), but one that has aerial forms of transportation, like flying cars.

That picture in your head is something that could become real in the next decade. The term for it is "urban air mobility." It won't look like The Jetsons or Back to the Future II -- that is, present-day cars that can hover and propel. Rather, urban air mobility will give us electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, basically a combo of drone and helicopter. They will be quieter than helicopters, with a quick velocity that can reduce an hour of traffic to a 10-minute aerial hop.

The total addressable market of urban air mobility could become a trillion-dollar market, which opens an opportunity to invest in its start-ups. One of those start-ups is Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) -- and it very much has the potential to set investors up for life.

Archer stock is still taxiing on the tarmac

Archer is one of the frontrunners in the eVTOL market. It is currently working on certifying its flagship aircraft, Midnight, which could potentially taxi passengers within urban hubs and to and from airports.

Image source: Archer Avation.

The bull case for Archer rests on its pushing Midnight successfully to the end of the FAA's regulatory timeline. The company has completed three of the necessary four phases -- it closed phase 3 in April 2026 -- and while it hasn't given a date for when it could hypothetically finish the fourth, it will likely take one to two years.

That said, Archer has been transforming its business profile, from an air taxi company to one with ambitions in defense and broader commercial aviation.

To that end, Archer has recently agreed to acquire three businesses from Boeing (NYSE: BA): Wisk, Insitu, and SkyGrid. Together, these three give Archer more exposure to autonomous eVTOL craft (Wisk), military drones (Insitu), and air traffic management (SkyGrid). Better still, one of these businesses, Insitu, is profitable, with over $200 million in annual revenue generated. For Archer, which brought in about $5 million last quarter, that additional $200 million could be significant to its growing costs.

Speaking of which, quarterly losses for Archer have been widening. That isn't surprising for a company that is spending heavily on certification and expansion, but it does raise the stakes for management's execution. It also raises the possibility that Archer will draw from equity financing, thereby diluting existing shareholders.

Plenty of blue sky ahead

The way to life-changing wealth for Archer investors is, doubtless, an FAA-certified Midnight. From there, Archer will have to scale production to make a fleet of air taxis, with enough aircraft to service major cities in the U.S. This will not happen overnight, and it could be many years before Archer is even generating revenue from its eVTOLs.

Archer is a speculative stock, which is a nice way of saying it lacks a strong business. It has dreams, plans, and big ideas, but no eVTOL or profits. By the same token, if it did have those latter two, the stock would not offer the same high-reward potential that it does today. That's a risk investors will have to accept if they want a shot at the upside.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

NuScale Power's (NYSE: SMR) stock has plummeted, to say the least. Put differently, NuScale investors who bought shares at its 52-week high of $57 have seen their investment drop about 83%. That's enough to make anyone, whatever their risk tolerance, lose their patience.

NuScale now trades at a sub-$10 price, yet it still carries a roughly $4 billion market cap. That puts this small modular reactor (SMR) developer in the mid-cap range, even though its business, unproven and unprofitable, looks more like an early-stage start-up than a mid-sized company.

I would not, therefore, call NuScale a bargain; nor, however, would I call it a trap.

Image source: Getty Images.

I would call NuScale a beaten-down nuclear stock, one that was formerly riding highs on a purely emotional wave of exuberant speculation, and is now trading closer to its actual value -- perhaps still even above its actual value -- due to a torrent of negative news and investor impatience.

That negative news includes:

• Having almost no revenue (about $75,000 last quarter).
• The loss of its longtime shareholder, Fluor.
• The lack of a firm first sale.
• A massive $750 million share sale that could further dilute shareholders.

Add to that a $506 million milestone payment to its partner, ENTRA1 Energy, for setting up a potential deployment of NuScale's SMRs with Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), and it's surprising this stock still trades in the mid-cap range.

True, a lot of negative news has already been priced in, which could create an outsize reaction should any positive news emerge. But if investors are looking at NuScale in the long term, an uncomfortable amount of uncertainty continues to obscure any proper perspective on its true value.

At the end of the day, NuScale is a high-risk, high-reward play on nuclear energy. If you're at all averse to that risk, a nuclear energy exchange-traded fund (ETF) could help you capitalize on the same trend with broader exposure.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Confession: I've been wrong about Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR). Not totally wrong, but wrong enough to make me rethink the stock. In truth, I've been analyzing the stock too narrow-mindedly, with too much focus on its air taxi business and not enough on the other developments taking shape around it.

Two of those developments are in defense and autonomous technology. And I think they will make Archer one of the most formidable eVTOL businesses on the market.

Archer's latest move could reduce future costs by a quarter

By now, you probably know what Archer is, or what it's trying to build. It's a frontrunner in the nascent electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry. Long term, it wants to operate an air taxi service, a kind of Uber (NYSE: UBER) in the skies, a transportation network to taxi people through the air to vertiports in major cities.

The urban mobility market, which includes eVTOL services, is expected to grow into a multitrillion-dollar market over the next several decades. That has also been one of the primary reasons to invest in companies like Archer, whose $4 billion-ish market cap could grow exponentially if this industry attracts the heavy demand expected of it.

Air taxi services will always be Archer's crown jewel, and the company has shown zero interest in backing away from that market. But since it can't actually operate an air taxi business yet, because FAA-type certification is stilling pending, the need for revenue has led it to make some surprising moves, one of which I'll talk about here.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

That move was its recent decision to take three businesses from Boeing (NYSE: BA) in exchange for 19.75% of Archer's pre-close share count, plus two warrants for $100 million of stock apiece. All three cross into Archer's business in some way: Wisk designs eVTOLs, SkyGrid's software manages air traffic, and Insitu builds drones. But Insitu seems like the real prize right now. Let me put it this way: It is a profitable business that is generating $200 million in annual revenue. And for Archer -- whose second-quarter revenue was about $5 million -- any profit could stop a multimillion-dollar cash-burning hole that has seemed impossible to fill.

Data by YCharts.

Insitu's revenue can help cash flow Archer's business in the short term. But, to return to my prediction, the purchase that could make Archer's business thrive isn't Insitu but Wisk.

Like Archer, Wisk is building eVTOLs. Unlike Archer's eVTOL Midnight, however, Wisk's aircraft is being developed for autonomous -- that is, pilotless -- flight. Obviously, that raises the bar on safety and regulation, which is already high because of the novelty of eVTOLs, but if autonomous technology can be relied upon, it would eliminate one of the most expensive portions of an air taxi flight: paying the pilot.

Indeed, one academic study of eVTOLs, published in 2024, estimated that autonomous operations could cut operating costs by about 27% compared with piloted flights. Granted, that's just an estimate, and Archer's real-world economics could differ significantly, but the point is clear: Pilotless flights could improve Archer's bottom line, perhaps by a significant amount.

Archer, I predict, is aiming for pilotless eVTOL flights, and if it succeeds, it will become one of the most efficient, profitable, and advantaged eVTOL businesses out there. That future, of course, still hinges on FAA certification, but if Archer gets there, today's investors would be getting in before that advantage is recognized.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) is quickly becoming one of America's most strategically important mining companies, at least if the economy, technology, and national security count for anything.

Why all the attention? Two words: rare earths. Indeed, rare-earth metals, as their name suggests, are a class of elements that are tough to find in economically useful deposits. They are essential to everything from smartphones and electric vehicles (EVs) to fighter jets and guided missiles, and China controls most of the world's capacity to process them.

USA Rare Earth is one of only a handful of American companies that control a rare-earth deposit on American soil. Its goal is to extract rare-earth elements from a deposit in Texas, process and separate them domestically, and turn them into permanent magnets for American companies out of its factory in Oklahoma.

For some time, this has been at the heart of USA Rare Earth's growth thesis; none of it is new. What is new, however, is its pending acquisition of Serra Verde, which could turn USA Rare Earth from a would-be miner with an uncertain start date into the owner of an operating rare-earth mine. That deal will likely close before its next earnings report -- expected in early November -- and could set the stage for a huge rally.

Here's what investors should know.

Image source: Getty Images.

From cash burn to cash flow

For nearly all of its existence, USA Rare Earth has been all map and no territory. True, it owns Round Top Deposit, one of the largest known U.S. sources for heavy rare earths. But Round Top isn't an operational mine, and it won't become one for at least another two years.

With no functioning mine yet, and only about $13 million in trailing-12-month revenue, USA Rare Earth's annual cash burn of roughly $100 million has been a flashing warning light for investors.

Data by YCharts

This is where the Serra Verde acquisition could prove to be the best move USA Rare Earth can make. The Brazilian rare-earth mine is expected to generate between $550 million and $650 million in annualized run rate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the end of 2027. Not only would that help offset USA Rare Earth's cash burn, but move it closer to positive cash flow.

Oh, but it gets better. Serra Verde has already secured a buyer for 100% of its Phase 1 production. That buyer is US SIIE, a government-backed special-purpose company established specifically to buy Serra Verde's rare-earth products. The 15-year agreement includes price floors and take-or-pay protections, which are supported by $750 million in U.S. government funding.

In simple terms, Serra Verde now has a customer obligated to buy its output at protected prices. For a mining company, it doesn't get much safer than that, at least on the demand side.

Once the acquisition closes -- shareholders have already approved it -- the protections on Serra Verde would extend to USA Rare Earth. In essence, USA Rare Earth would have an operating mine to help generate cash flow for its other projects, such as its Top Deposit and magnet factories.

At its next earnings report, USA Rare Earth could very likely, I think, announce the closing of this acquisition. Investors who buy USA Rare Earth beforehand may be glad they did.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Last October, shares of NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) hit an all-time high of about $57. Today, shares trade at just under $10, representing a massive 84% decline.

What happened? Nothing that an 84% decline might suggest: no bankruptcy, no regulatory complications, no nuclear accidents (thank goodness). The drawback was more likely a sign that investors had lost patience with an overvalued nuclear stock with no reactor operating in the real world, and no firm first customer.

Funny thing is, NuScale actually looks better positioned as a company than it did at the height of its AI-nuclear boom. Investors looking for a value may want to reconsider NuScale, especially with a multi-state project moving closer to a signed deal.

The 6-gigawatt elephant in the room

If you're new to NuScale, here's a quick catch-up: The company wants to build and sell small modular reactors (SMRs), which are essentially compact nuclear power plants designed to generate carbon-free electricity from a much smaller physical footprint than your traditional nuclear facility. It is currently the only company in the U.S. with an NRC-approved SMR design, but it has not yet built a reactor for a customer.

To that end, NuScale has partnered with ENTRA1 Energy, which essentially acts as the developer for projects that use its technology. And ENTRA1 has potentially landed one of the biggest SMR projects ever conceived: 6 gigawatts (GW) of NuScale-powered nuclear capacity for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), potentially involving 72 of its modules.

A definitive power purchase agreement (PPA) has not been signed; however, TVA and ENTRA1 have inked a nonbinding agreement to work on the project together. They have also identified four prospective sites, have selected at least one for a plant, and are currently evaluating the others.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The opportunity is huge, but so is the bill

So what could this project actually be worth to NuScale?

Well, it all depends on how much revenue NuScale would eventually generate, which could be enormous or utterly disappointing. We know, for instance, that NuScale managed to eke out about $63 million in licensing and engineering revenue from a much smaller six-module project in Romania. TVA's project should be bigger, though exactly how much more NuScale would earn is anyone's guess.

That early-stage work, though, would just be the appetizer. The bigger opportunity would come from selling 72 modules to ENTRA1. There's no sticker price on those modules just yet, and I'm not going to pretend I can pull a sensible estimate out of thin air.

But here's the rub: NuScale may have to spend a lot of money before it makes any. Its deal with ENTRA1 requires additional milestone payments, including a potentially huge one if a binding PPA gets signed. It's already incurred about $507 million for the first milestone, and a PPA covering 72 modules could trigger roughly another $1.2 billion more.

Is NuScale a bargain today?

I wouldn't go so far as to call NuScale a bargain -- not yet. With the stock under $10, investors are paying less for NuScale than they were last autumn, even though it has a clearer path to commercialization. Still, until TVA turns into a binding agreement -- and that agreement into revenue -- this stock is no less speculative than it was at its height.

At today's price, I find NuScale more interesting than last year, but I wouldn't call it a value stock in hiding. Risk-tolerant investors might want to consider it for its nuclear potential, but value investors should definitely not confuse it with a beaten-down stock with a proven business.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) has been endeavoring to make traffic jams obsolete; in the meantime, its stock appears to be stuck in one.

The electric aircraft maker has spent many years promising investors one thing: an electric air taxi network. It has spent millions developing Midnight, its flagship electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), and will likely spend millions and millions more before that same craft is FAA-certified -- assuming that day comes.

Meanwhile, investors have been getting restless: The stock, once trading above $14, has crashed over 62% to about $5.50 today. It has not traded above $8 since late January, despite many exciting updates and a small amount of revenue last quarter.

The seeming disconnect between what Archer wants to be -- a company capitalizing on a multitrillion-dollar urban mobility market -- and what it is (a cash-burning start-up without a cash-generating bird in the sky) begs the question: Should you dump Archer shares, or wait? Likewise, should you buy if you haven't?

The bull case for Archer is growing

Archer has many of the ingredients that constitute great companies -- or great growth stocks.

It has Midnight, its eVTOL, an aircraft that can seat four passengers (plus a pilot). It has a 400,000-square-foot manufacturing factory in Covington, Georgia, conveniently located next to the Covington Municipal Airport. There, it plans to scale up to 650 aircraft a year by 2030 and expand the facility to support 2,300 aircraft a year.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

It doesn't have FAA-type certification for Midnight, but it isn't dilly-dallying: It's currently in the last of the four stages in the FAA's four-phase process. Better still, Archer plans to launch limited operations in American cities in late 2026 under the White House's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). It also plans to launch passenger services outside the U.S., including Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Ethiopia, India, Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates.

More recently, Archer flexed its commercial and defense muscles. Through its relationship with Anduril, it has co-created an autonomous VTOL platform, with two variants -- Thunder and Halo -- announced. Both Halo and Thunder could be vital to Archer's survival, as defense contracts could provide meaningful revenue while it waits for the FAA's commercial green light for Midnight.

Finally, Archer's balance sheet carries very little debt, and it had about $1.6 billion in cash, equivalents, and investments at the end of June.

Archer's biggest problem? Numbers

One chart can sum up Wall Street's hesitations over Archer right now.

Data by YCharts

What you're looking at is Archer's problem in miniature: widening losses, minimal revenue, and a rapidly growing share count. Archer isn't broke per se -- it can survive for at least two years on its current cash pile -- but research and production will likely require a fresh cash injection at some point, thereby diluting existing shareholders' shares even further.

But the future for Archer looks challenging, not bleak. It has a lot to prove, and that's why the stock has potential -- getting in early, staying invested, and refusing to sell during hard months could prove extremely fruitful over the next five years.

I would not, therefore, sell Archer just yet; I would hold on, as the runway for this company could be unconventionally long.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Earlier this week, an economist at the University of Helsinki predicted that the U.S. economy would enter a recession by 2027. As reported by Business Insider, the professor, an expert in financial crises, named high corporate debt as the trigger for a collapse in the economy. The result would be a global financial crisis, which would cause a U.S. stock market crash.

Personally, I don't put a lot of faith in theories of this kind. There are simply too many moving parts in the economy to pinpoint a date and cause for a stock market crash.

Even so, I can understand the underlying anxiety. There have been several warning signs lately that the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is expensive and approaching a correction or crash. I wouldn't go so far as to put a date or year on it, but it seems likely a bear market is on the way. Here's what we know.

Image source: Getty Images.

The stock market looks strongly overvalued by two popular measures

The current bull market is a bit of a freak. Against all odds -- stubbornly high inflation, negative consumer sentiment, general apprehension and market skepticism -- the S&P 500 has notched three straight years of double-digit gains, with a fourth underway. Most bull markets last on average 2.7 years. This one has lasted nearly four.

Another unusual feature of this bull market is its heavy concentration. For a long time, the index was driven by only a handful of megacap stocks, most notably the "Magnificent Seven" -- the nickname Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett gave to seven dominant tech stocks. While lately the market has broadened, with energy, industrials, and healthcare contributing more, these market leaders were responsible for much of the S&P 500's rise.

Those enormous gains have started showing up in another concerning way: valuation. By one measure, we have entered the second most expensive market in history, behind only the dot-com era. The CAPE ratio, which compares the S&P 500's price today to the last decade of earnings, sits around 41. That's more than twice its long-term average of about 17, and only a few points shy of its all-time high of roughly 44.

Data by YCharts

The Buffett indicator is flashing a similar warning. This metric, created by famed investor Warren Buffett, compares the total value of the stock market with GDP. The idea is that if the stock market is growing faster than the economy, a bubble might be forming. Any reading above 120% signals that the market is overvalued, with 200%-plus so hot it's "playing with fire." The current ratio is 244%.

A crash in 2027? Here's what to do.

The CAPE and Buffett indicator measure the stock market's valuation relative to history. They compare the present with the past, but they don't predict the future. They tell us, in short, to invest with caution when the market is overvalued, but they don't advise to give up on investing altogether.

That might seem counterintuitive. If the market is overvalued, why not pocket gains now? You'll never regret taking a profit, but taking a loss could leave you remorseful.

If you want to reduce risk, I wouldn't discourage from taking profits. You might want to diversify your portfolio, or you might be at the stage where less risk agrees more with your strategy. In that case, do what's best for your long-term goals.

At the same time, I would caution against selling out of fear. The stock market might look expensive, but that doesn't mean it's going to crash next year. Many top banks, including Goldman Sachs, are predicting the opposite: strong growth in 2027, possibly another double-digit gain.

For most investors, the best thing to do is the least dramatic: nothing. If you're confident in your investments, if you've picked high-quality stocks, hold them long-term. The stock market could crash in 2027 -- or it might not -- but profitable companies with durable earnings and competitive moats will weather the storm. Trust in your investments, and you could prevent yourself from making a common mistake: selling too soon and missing bigger gains later.

As Buffett once put it: "Our favorite holding period is forever." The next bear market might test your patience, but just wait -- another bull will be on the way.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

If you look closely at the last 150 years of stock market history, you'll see a clear pattern: Periods of extremely high valuations are often followed by disappointing returns, some of which lead to outright crashes.

Right now, we're living through one of the most expensive markets in history -- the second most expensive, as measured by the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Since the 1880s, the Shiller CAPE ratio has averaged about 18. At the time of writing, it had exceeded 41. Only once has the market been this expensive, and that was during the dot-com era.

Data by YCharts

What does a high Shiller CAPE ratio actually mean?

The Shiller CAPE ratio is a handy way of evaluating the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) based on the last decade of inflation-adjusted earnings. "Inflation-adjusted" is just a technical way of saying those earnings are converted into today's dollars; it makes the comparison more apples-to-apples. Likewise, using a decade of data helps smooth out unusually strong or weak years, which offers a much clearer picture of the market's underlying value.

Typically, a higher-than-average CAPE ratio is a strong signal that the market is expensive. Over the last 30 years, for instance, the average CAPE ratio has been about 29; today's reading of about 41 is exceptionally high.

Image source: Getty Images.

What does an expensive market mean to investors?

An expensive market isn't necessarily bad, nor does it imply that every stock within it is overpriced.

At the same time, high valuations often coincide with overly speculative periods. The speculative nature, which can detach concrete earnings from expectations, is what makes these markets particularly fearsome. Investors expect growth far into the future, leaving little breathing room for disappointment, and any threat to future profits can give the market the jitters, possibly even triggering a crash.

The dot-com crash is an example of this phenomenon. In the mid-to-late 1990s, investors were pouring money into little-known tech companies that had hardly any revenue or profits. At about the same time, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates -- three times in 1999, followed by three more in 2000.

The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) peaked in March 2000. Then, a combination of higher interest rates and companies selling their own stock triggered panic. By October 2002, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index had fallen 78% from its peak.

Does history indicate a market crash is coming?

History suggests that the market could crash, but it's impossible to predict when it could occur or how long the damage could last.

On the flip side, the stock market might not crash at all. It might correct itself, which is defined as a 10% drop from recent highs. There's simply no telling what the market will do in the future. You might think you're timing the market by selling now, only to miss the market's best days.

If you're worried about a stock market crash, it might be worth reviewing your portfolio to see if it's properly diversified. A market pullback could hurt some industries more than others, and diversification could help limit the overall damage. You might also want to have some cash on hand in case a correction opens up buying opportunities.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The market doesn't know what to think about USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR). Its 52-week price chart has a Jack-o'-lantern smile, with peaks in the $40s and troughs in the $10s. Wide price swings aren't uncommon for a growth stock, but USAR gives the unmistakable impression that Wall Street simply can't make up its mind.

Surely, some of that confusion is owed to the mismatch between USAR's business and valuation, which at times has been truly absurd. Last October, for instance, the metal company had a market cap north of $5 billion while generating essentially zero revenue.

Starting in 2027, however, the bull case for USAR is going to get stronger -- strong enough, I think, to make it rally back to its former highs. Here's why.

A ban on Chinese rare-earth magnets and alloys will send USAR higher

USAR is in a critical position: It owns a particularly heavy rare-earth deposit in Texas. The metals found there are used to make rare-earth magnets, whose tech applications span aviation, defense, clean energy, and other industries.

The U.S. has long been uncomfortably dependent on China for rare-earth magnets. The security of that dependence was always wobbly, but it reached a critical point in the recent tit-for-tat trade war between China and the U.S. That means the U.S. government has been extremely aggressive in establishing its own rare-earth supply chain, from policies that support miners to direct investments in companies themselves.

Image source: Getty Images.

That brings us here. Starting on Jan. 1, 2027, rare-earth magnets sourced from China will be barred from use in American military systems. Defense contractors will need to ensure that everything from the mining and refining of rare earth to the production of magnets occurs outside of China. Waivers -- that is, special permission from the government -- are also becoming harder to obtain, which means defense companies will have greater incentive to work with U.S. suppliers.

That will put USAR in an unusually favorable position. Not only does it own one of the country's largest and most diverse rare-earth deposits in the U.S. -- Round Top in Texas -- but it is also building two magnet factories in Oklahoma and South Carolina. Together, those assets will give USAR something few domestic miners have: a largely U.S.-based magnet supply chain.

An important caveat

Round Top is significantly rich in the "core four" rare earths used in defense: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. And USAR is developing innovative extraction technology tailored to Round Top to make its mining there less expensive and more efficient.

The only catch: It is not an operating mine, and it won't become one until at least 2028. So it's unlikely that USAR will be supplying rare-earth magnets to defense companies next year. But that doesn't mean it won't take advantage of the changed environment to ink agreements with defense clients for future sales.

Indeed, I predict that USAR will enter agreements with defense clients before 2027, with more to come next year. The U.S. cannot meet the strict requirements of this new rule without the help of USAR, and defense clients will likely be eager to lock in future supply before that capacity comes online.

I wouldn't wait until those agreements are inked before buying USAR. If you can tolerate the ups and downs of a growth stock, I think it's worth owning now before Wall Street finally makes up its mind.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) has big ambitions -- and those ambitions aren't cheap. The rare-earth miner -- or would-be miner, since it's not mining yet -- burned roughly $56.7 million in second-quarter operating cash, up from about $19 million in the first quarter. That brings its 2026 cash burn to about $75 million, already more than four times the roughly $18 million it burned in all of 2025.

That's a lot of cash, but USAR, fortunately, isn't scrounging for loose change. It ended June with about $1.5 billion in cash and equivalents. If we were to divide that by its latest quarterly cash burn of $56.7 million, that would give USAR a cash runway of about 27 quarters, or nearly seven years.

That isn't highly accurate, though. For one, it doesn't take into account capital expenditures (capex), which have already totaled about $108 million through the first six months of 2026. USAR is also building a large-scale rare-earth mine and two magnet factories, and potentially acquiring Serra Verde for $300 million in cash. The next few years are going to be costly, and its cash pile will likely dwindle much faster than seven years will pass.

Image source: Getty Images.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that USAR ends up acquiring Serra Verde for $300 million. That leaves it with about $1.2 billion. Let's also annualize its first-half capex ($108 million) to about $217 million annually. Combined, then, USAR would spend about $444 million annually. At that pace, USAR has about three years of capital on hand.

Luckily for USAR, it does have financing options. It has access to $277 million in federal funding and up to $1.3 billion in secured capacity. After adding that to its current funds, USAR could theoretically have access to more than $3 billion in capital, a considerable amount of breathing room for a mining company.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is a one-of-a-kind mining company that sits at the heart of America's push for green power. Indeed, there is no company in the world doing the kind of mining that TMC aspires to do as it is not yet legally permitted.

In a nutshell, TMC aims to commercially collect polymetallic nodules -- that is, potato-sized rocks rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. These metals are critical for clean energy, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and other high-tech manufacturing. TMC's plan is to harvest the nodules from the seafloor of the Pacific Ocean and then refine them into battery-grade metals to sell to industrial buyers.

TMC does not have regulatory approval to mine the seafloor; as such, it also doesn't yet have revenue. Its speculative nature as a stock means its price has been all over the chart, from $10 a share last fall to about $5 today.

Over the last month, however, TMC has picked up significant momentum, gaining about 32%. But investors who missed that market-beating performance needn't worry; if this company can just do one thing, the biggest gains should arrive.

The green light to a bigger valuation

TMC is in a bit of a bind. The company has zero revenue, and it's losing money by the quarter. Its quarterly losses aren't widening -- in fact, they've narrowed -- but its roughly $99 million in cash won't last but four or five quarters at its current burn rate of about $20 million. The metal company has $143 million in total liquidity, but even so a year of expenses is likely all it has left on hand.

This would be concerning for any company. But for TMC, it's a double-edged problem. The entire nodule mining industry is at a standstill due to the lack of a regulatory rulebook. The organization charged with creating these rules, the International Seabed Authority (ISA), has been slow to finalize them in international code. Hence, the reason TMC has mining rights for a multibillion-dollar hoard of nodules but no legality to bring them to dry land.

Image source: TMC The Metals Company.

That said, the last year and a half has opened a second path for TMC. The U.S. government, which never ratified the treaty that made the ISA, is very supportive of TMC's ambitions. It has created a streamlined process that could bypass the ISA's impasse and issue TMC a license for international seabed mining. The Trump Administration has made this process easier for TMC, and the company is expecting to secure a commercial recovery permit by late 2027.

If the company gets that permit, it would be the ultimate symbol of U.S. support. With it, the company could move confidently toward harvesting nodules. And that, I think, could send TMC stock soaring.

Should you buy TMC before that final decision?

There are some reasons to doubt, however, that a final U.S. decision would put the ISA's competing claim over the deep sea to rest. Even if TMC does get the green light from the U.S. government, international opposition could still complicate its path to commercialization.

The risks are real, and the company's future isn't crystal clear yet. However, given how urgently the world needs critical metals, the company will, I think, find a way to bring its nodules to the surface. For investors willing to stomach the uncertainty, TMC looks like a speculative bet worth considering before the regulatory picture crystallizes.

Steven Porrello has positions in TMC The Metals Company. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is in the business of making flying taxis. It's not the kind of taxi most people would have in mind -- a white or yellow cab -- but rather a small electric aircraft that takes off vertically like a helicopter and flies forward like a plane. This is called an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) craft, and one day, you might take one to an airport to save time.

The core value proposition of air taxis is, indeed, saving time, which could resonate strongly in areas where congested urban traffic devours a large portion of it. With increased urbanization, the total addressable market for urban air mobility (which includes eVTOLs) could be enormous. Morgan Stanley, for example, projects the global urban mobility market to reach $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050. That's the base case, too, not the bullish one.

As the frontrunner of the eVTOL market in the U.S., Joby seems like a once-in-a-decade opportunity -- if you follow Morgan Stanley's predictions. The potential could be enormous, but how likely is it that Joby will turn this air-taxi vision into a real, thriving business?

Image source: Joby Aviation.

The air-taxi dream is moving closer to commercialization

There's compelling evidence right now that Joby can make a business from its vision. Perhaps the most persuasive is the dominant lead it has taken in the race to commercialize its eVTOL aircraft in the U.S.

Joby is progressing quickly through the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) regulatory process, and it could very well obtain the much-coveted FAA type certification in the not-too-distant future. The company is already in the fifth and final stage of the process, with for-credit flight testing expected later this year.

Indeed, Joby has more real-world proof of its aircraft than any of its eVTOL peers. It has logged more than 50,000 miles across its eVTOL fleet; it has demonstrated that its eVTOLs can achieve a piloted transition; and it has even showcased its S4 eVTOLs in flight in and around Manhattan. It has five of these aircraft in service, with 12 more in production, and it plans to begin flights in Texas this September through the White House's eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP).

Joby also has several strategic partnerships. Perhaps the most notable is its relationship with Toyota (NYSE: TM). Over the years, Toyota has committed about $894 million total in Joby; more recently, it entered a strategic manufacturing alliance with the eVTOL company to help it scale aircraft production. That might seem small, but it's actually hugely significant: Once it has certification, Joby will need a fleet of aircraft, and Toyota's expertise can help it avoid problems with manufacturing mishaps that a less experienced company inevitably falls into.

Both its progress and its partnerships -- which also include Delta and Uber -- give Joby more credibility than the typical aviation start-up. But let's round out this picture: Joby is burning cash badly, and it won't earn significant revenue this year. Regardless of its FAA progress, the company can't afford setbacks or delays -- or else investors could suffer dilution to raise funds.

Data by YCharts

The future, however, is looking less murky, and Joby's place in it is also looking more permanent. The stock looks like a long-term buy today, as long as you can stomach the ups and downs that inevitably come with it.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

You've probably heard the saying, "Records are made to be broken." Or maybe you've heard the Wall Street version, "An all-time high isn't a ceiling." Either could be applied to the stock market right now, which has been notching record highs at an astonishing pace.

There are, however, some concerning signs in the market today. What goes up must come down, and lately, one major signal that could point to a correction or crash in the near future is flashing. If, to continue the adages, all good things come to an end, what does that mean for investors today?

Image source: Getty Images.

The stock market is nearing its highest valuation in history

Since late 2022, the stock market has been on a historic run.

Indeed, the three major indexes -- the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) -- have each posted double-digit gains for three consecutive years. All three are up double digits again in 2026; if those gains hold, it would mark the first four-year streak of its kind since the dot-com era.

This remarkable bull run has pushed each index to all-time highs. The catch, however, is that it has also pushed stock market valuations toward a dangerous high.

Data by YCharts

The CAPE ratio can help us gauge the market's current valuation. It compares the S&P 500's price with its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years. Higher CAPE ratios mean the market is more expensive, while anything below the average (18) would mean investors are paying less than usual for the market's earnings.

Historically, high CAPE ratios have typically preceded market corrections or crashes. For example, during the 1920s, the CAPE hit a historic high of about 32.6 before the notorious market crash that ended the Roaring Twenties. Likewise, in 2000, the CAPE hit an all-time high of 44.2 just before the dot-com bubble burst.

Today, for the first time since the 2000s, the CAPE is back in the 40-plus territory. That makes today's market the second-most-expensive period in roughly 155 years of market history, at least by its own measure.

How to invest when market valuations are historically high

It would be a mistake to read a high CAPE as a sign to avoid the stock market. No one can predict a stock market crash, and you could miss out on some of the market's best days if you pull out your money.

Instead, I would read a high CAPE as a strong reminder to be deliberate and careful with your investments. Today's market is richly valued, and if a correction brings valuations back down to earth, some companies will weather the storm better than others. Look for blue chip companies with strong earnings, wide margins, and deep competitive moats. Conversely, be cautious with companies whose valuations depend on growth that hasn't materialized.

Ultimately, no one can time the market. Rather than predicting a market crash, it's best to stay invested and continue contributing to your investment accounts regularly. Historically, investors who stay invested over the long run have fared better than those who repeatedly jump in and out.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, went public on June 12 with enormous expectations, but its first couple of months of trading have been anything but smooth. As of Aug. 25, the stock has dropped by about 39% from its all-time high of $225.64 a share. It now trades less than 3% higher than its IPO price of $135 per share, and since early July, it has largely traded below the $150 per share at which it opened its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.

The tech stock has been all over the chart, with an early August dip to just below $105. That said, even if it delivers aggressive revenue growth over the next year, it isn't out of the question for the share price to drop below $100 by 2028.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX stock in 2028: A bull and bear case

Let's be clear: SpaceX as a company wouldn't need to implode for its stock to lose substantial value from here. It could actually increase revenue significantly, yet still wind up with a lower market cap.

How does that work? One issue the stock's current valuation. Even after dipping into the $130s, SpaceX carries a roughly $1.8 trillion market cap, putting it among the 10 largest publicly traded companies in the world. The stock trades at about 63 times sales and 14 times book value. Both are lofty premiums by any traditional standard.

That said, many analysts expect the company to crank out substantially more revenue. This year, consensus estimates put SpaceX's revenue at about $45 billion, a 141% increase from 2025, while the same analysts predict 2027 revenue will jump to $105 billion. At the higher end of the range, some analysts predict up to $151 billion in 2027 revenue, while estimates on the lower end expect roughly $52 billion that year.

Suppose we begin with the consensus revenue estimate for 2027: $105 billion. If the stock were to trade at 63 times sales in 2028, then SpaceX would command a market cap of $6.6 trillion. Assuming its share count stayed the same, that would imply a share price of $500, or almost four times its current price.

However, that would be highly unlikely. The company would have to undergo several extraordinary developments for investors to support that multi-trillion valuation. This outcome is not impossible, but it's probably not going to happen.

But now, let's say, for the sake of argument, that SpaceX is hit with the opposite sentiment: Instead of exuberance, a disenchanting sense of frustration deflates the space stock. Suppose, then, investors are willing to pay not 63 times sales but something closer to 12 times sales. That would still be twice the price-to-sale ratio of the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index. With $105 billion in sales, SpaceX stock would be worth about $95 per share -- a 31% decline from today.

That would be the bear case (an extreme one), and it would require extraordinary developments in a negative sense. Again, not impossible, but not likely.

I think a more realistic estimate would see SpaceX reaching about $160 per share by 2028. If revenue hit $105 billion in 2027, then SpaceX would be trading at about 20 times sales. The company would command a roughly $2 trillion market cap, implying about an 18% increase from today.

That would be a decent gain, but it would be far from a millionaire-maker type of result. Overall, these calculations point to a sobering truth: Substantial expected growth is already priced into SpaceX stock. As a result, investors should approach it with the expectation of modest long-term gains.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) has already become an artificial intelligence story. And like all stories, Oklo's is mixed with factual and fictional elements -- the measurable with the speculative -- which can make it challenging to distinguish the genuine opportunity from pure nuclear hoopla. Buzz around the nuclear stock has started to die -- it's fallen 44% in 2026 -- which makes now a good moment to revisit its story and ask: What exactly are investors buying, and is it worth buying today?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

The story so far: How Oklo became an AI stock

Oklo debuted on the market in 2024. But its history stretches back farther than that. Indeed, we could even go as far back as CEO Jacob DeWitte's graduate work at MIT, where he studied reactor protection systems for sodium-cooled fast reactors, the same broad class of nuclear tech that would eventually underpin Oklo's Aurora powerhouse.

As an AI story, however, a more revealing first chapter would open with something more consequential: Sam Altman.

In 2013, Altman and DeWitte met for the first time at an MIT dinner, and by 2015, the future co-founder and CEO of OpenAI had become an early investor in Oklo. In that same year, Altman became Oklo's chairman and remained in that role until 2025, when he stepped down to allow Oklo to pursue partnerships with AI companies, including OpenAI. By that time, however, the association had already done its work, and Oklo had become an AI-power story.

And what does this AI-power story amount to so far? Nothing commercial, but there have been noteworthy milestones. A list of them would have to include its roughly 18 gigawatt (GW) order book, which includes a non-binding agreement with data center operator Switch to deploy up to 12 GW of nuclear power through 2044. Adding to that is its landmark agreement with Meta Platforms, which involves developing a 1.2 GW nuclear power campus in Pike County, Ohio, to power Meta's AI data centers.

Adding to these is the White House's strong support for novel nuclear technologies -- driven in part by AI's power needs -- which has helped Oklo move its Aurora design through the federal authorization process (Aurora is not yet approved to operate). In 2025, for example, the Trump administration ordered the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to accelerate testing of advanced reactors and create a DOE pilot program to fast-track construction of these reactors outside laboratories.

Partnerships, non-binding agreements, and federal backing have all been tangible parts of Oklo's story. But they're only the opening act, and frankly, the next act will determine whether Oklo become a nuclear success.

The harder part of Oklo's AI story

Two figures can tell us a lot about Oklo's speculative side: $8 billion (Oklo's market cap) and $1.2 million (its trailing 12-month revenue). Don't be fooled by that latter figure, though: Most of Oklo's revenue has come from businesses it has acquired; none of it is reactor revenue, and Oklo still has no firm date for when its first reactor will operate commercially.

If we dig a little deeper, the picture gets even more complicated.

Data by YCharts

Compare revenue estimates with Oklo's net income. Two fiscal years from now, analysts expect Oklo to generate about $55 million in annual revenue, which is roughly a third of its current $153 million trailing loss. With Oklo's current spending trajectory, that loss will be larger, too. Indeed, Oklo lost about $48.5 million in the second quarter of this year, up from $33 million in the first. That loss is softened by the $23 million in interest and dividend income on its large cash balance.

"But AI companies will buy!" one might argue. "All Oklo needs to do is to certify Aurora, and the sales will go through the roof."

That might be true in some capacity -- the demand for off-grid power is true, at least -- but there's one hitch to that bullish scenario: fuel.

To scale reactors, Oklo will need an adequate supply of nuclear fuel. And unfortunately, the kind of fuel it needs is also the hardest to find. Only one U.S. facility is licensed to make high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), and Oklo isn't the only company trying to get its hand on it.

It is true that investing heavily in fuel recycling could eventually give Aurora another fuel source. But that only accentuates the problem I'm getting at: scaling reactors (and fuel) is expensive business (investment for Oklo's Tennessee fuel center is estimated at $1.7 billion), and Oklo investors may have to wait years before that capex turns into revenue.

Oklo isn't all hype, but the business needs time to grow

I've been an investor in Oklo for a long time. And while I know the short term will be messy -- the losses won't be pretty -- I trust Oklo's management to steer through the uncertain middle. That said, investing in Oklo today means accepting an AI story that is still being written. That may be worth the risk for some, but not everyone should feel compelled to buy the stock today. There's nothing wrong with waiting until the nuclear side of its story gets past the first draft before buying.

Steven Porrello has positions in Nvidia and Oklo. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) was America's favorite rare earth mining stock last year -- or, at least, one of the Trump administration's favorite rare earth miners.

Indeed, MP stock tripled in 2025, with much of those gains occurring after the Pentagon's public-private partnership with MP was announced last July. At one point last year, MP was up more than 400%, before giving back much of those gains last October. Fast forward to today, and MP Materials is trading about 45% lower than its 52-week high.

But don't let that red number fool you: Despite the stock's sell-off, which was really just a valuation correction, MP is growing stronger and healthier. The stock might not repeat last year's performance. Yet if its recent earnings tell us anything, it's that MP deserves a second look. Here's what you should know.

MP is getting more value from Mountain Pass

The big takeaway from MP's second quarter was revenue growth. MP managed to pull in about $108 million last quarter, a roughly 89% positive change year-over-year, while adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) swung from a $12.5 loss to positive $28.5 million.

The company also reported $17.6 million in Pentagon-related price-protection income. Remember how the Department of Defense agreed last year to a price floor of $110 per kilogram for MP's neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr)? Well, market prices for this vital rare earth compound apparently fell below that level, and the government made up the difference in a roughly $18 million payment.

Doubling quarterly revenue was impressive, but it's not the reason this quarter left a strong impression on me. That's owed to the fact that MP is now selling a much more refined NdPr product, while subsequently profiting more from the NdPr that it's selling. That might sound confusing, so let me put it into perspective.

Image source: MP Materials.

For much of its life, MP sold rare-earth concentrate to Chinese companies, which would then use chemicals to free the rare-earth elements from the ore. Rare-earth concentrate has valuable rare earth elements, but since they need to be freed, the concentrate is worth less than selling those rare-earth elements outright.

Starting last April, however, MP began to cease selling concentrate, due mainly to the trade war between the U.S. and China. The benefit of that is that MP is now processing the concentrate in-house. This requires more work, but the resulting product is worth more money.

Just consider this: In Q2 2025, MP earned about $25 million in NdPr oxide and metal revenue, with about $12 million from concentrate revenue. This last quarter, it had zero revenue from concentrate sales, and $95 million from oxide and metal revenue. Big jump right? And in the right direction, too.

Is MP Materials a buy after its last earnings?

MP Material's economics are improving, and its raking in more revenue. For me, the next test is whether its second magnet factory (10X) is on track for commissioning in 2028, as well as prove later that it can scale magnets production significantly. I would not buy MP with the expectation that it will triple in 12 months like it did in 2025, but opening a position at today's price could be worthwhile if you want exposure to American rare-earth mining.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MP Materials. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) just reported its strongest quarter ever, with revenue crossing the $1 billion marker for the first time in company history. This was the fourth straight quarter Bloom reported year-over-year revenue growth, and, by the looks of it, next quarter could mark a fifth.

Bloom stock has, unsurprisingly, surged this year. If you had invested $5,000 in Bloom this time last year, you'd have about $22,500 now. That's an exceptional return for an energy stock. But it's not the best return you could have ever gotten from Bloom.

On March 18, Bloom stock, hit with the double whammy of a COVID-19 market sell-off plus an accounting fiasco that had forced the company to restate years of revenue, bottomed out at about $3 a piece. It was one of the lowest share prices in the company's history, and the stock has not returned to that price since.

Image source: Bloom Energy.

Buying $5,000 worth of Bloom at $3 a pop would have been a gold mine. Shares have grown 63-fold since that COVID-era low. In other words, $5,000 then would be worth about $337,000 today. That's a gain of about $332,000, or nearly the average price of a home in the U.S.

You're likely not going to see another 63-fold gain out of Bloom stock anytime soon (that would make it a $4 trillion company). But the stock could, at some point, return to its 52-week high ($350), as long as revenue grows as strongly as predicted. A few shares of Bloom in a well-diversified portfolio could deliver upside, but keep expectations realistic after its recent rally.

Steven Porrello has positions in Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) has been crushing the market for well over a year. The stock almost quadrupled in 2025 (about 291% overall), and it has so far doubled in 2026. The S&P 500, meanwhile, gained about 16% last year, and it has risen about 12% on the year.

Data by YCharts

The question is, Can Bloom keep outperforming? I think it can, although future gains will likely be harder won.

First, the bull case. That starts, undoubtedly, with Bloom's extraordinary growth. Second-quarter revenue soared over the $1 billion mark for the first time in company history. Demand for Bloom's energy servers is so high that management raised its full-year outlook to between $3.9 billion and $4.2 billion, which would represent 100% revenue growth at the midpoint.

There are plenty of reasons to assume the momentum will continue. Artificial intelligence data centers need gargantuan amounts of electricity, and few companies can match Bloom's speedy ability to deploy on-site power. Indeed, Bloom's 90-day timeline just got better: Its now "Power Connect" deployment reduces installation time by 40%.

Image source: Bloom Energy.

The problem is price. Even though Bloom trades at about 42% lower than its 52-week high, the stock carries a hefty $60 billion valuation. At roughly $202 a share, Bloom trades around 270 times trailing earnings.

Still, Bloom doesn't have to post triple-digit gains to beat the market, and with Bloom's outlook, mature growth could outpace the S&P. Earnings will likely have to catch up with expectations -- there's likely volatility ahead -- but if you've got a long time horizon, Bloom is a compelling energy stock to add to your portfolio.

Steven Porrello has positions in Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The stock market is hitting record levels on all fronts.

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have all hit record highs this year, extending a bull market that's been nearly four years in the making. If these gains hold, 2026 will mark the fourth consecutive year of double-digit returns, extending one of the strongest multi-year runs in decades. That's a record worth celebrating.

And yet there's another record the market is approaching that Wall Street might not be so eager to break.

Image source: Getty Images.

The CAPE ratio is closing in on the dot-com era record

That record is the S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio, a measure of how expensive the stock market is relative to its earnings. In simple terms, the CAPE tells us how much investors are paying for every dollar of average inflation-adjusted earnings that the S&P 500 has produced over the last decade.

Over roughly 155 years of market history, the CAPE has averaged about 17. Today, it sits at roughly 41. This is only the second distinct period in market history in which the ratio has entered 40-plus territory; indeed, we are now only 3 points away from matching the ratio's all-time high of 44.

Data by YCharts.

When the CAPE peaked around 44, it was late 1999, and the dot-com boom was coming to a close. Many dot-com companies were priced at extraordinary valuations, and the sheer number that subsequently went bankrupt tells you how far prices had detached from fundamentals.

Today's market has similarities to the dot-com era -- the excitement over a new technology, the enormous amounts of capital being poured into it, the fear of missing out. And yet the two are not synonymous. Many of the dot-com companies had zero profits and little revenue, whereas the companies most responsible for today's rally are enormous, highly profitable enterprises. Nvidia, in other words, is no Pets.com.

At the same time, we shouldn't ignore a high CAPE ratio; indeed, few valuation metrics are better at putting today's market into historical perspective. Even great companies can become more disappointing if their high valuations leave little room for earnings to fall short of expectations. Today's market is getting uncomfortably close to that point.

To be sure, the CAPE doesn't predict crashes, nor does a 40-plus reading suggest that you sell all your stocks. What it does suggest, however, is to be selective with your investments. Now, more than ever, it's important to distinguish companies that can realistically deliver on promises from growth stocks whose valuations are being carried mostly on exuberance. If we're living in an AI bubble, companies with strong balance sheets and earnings should be better positioned to survive a crash.

Corrections, to be sure, will come and go. No one can eliminate volatility, but strong businesses and patience have historically been great remedies for the fear it can create.

Steven Porrello has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) is a clean energy company that makes solid oxide fuel cell systems. These fuel cells, to put it simply, chemically remove electrons from natural gas and route them through a circuit to produce electricity. The cells live in giant boxes -- Bloom Boxes -- that can be used as mini on-site power plants for data centers, factories, and other facilities that can't wait years to gain access to a grid connection.

This advantage -- on-site power generation -- has become enormously valuable in the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Bloom's share price is up 136% so far in 2026 and over 344% over the past year.

That's a huge run for any stock. And yet the numbers underneath that rally suggest there's plenty of room for further growth.

Image source: Bloom Energy.

Bloom is filling a gap in the grid

To frame Bloom's opportunity properly, it helps to understand a significant mismatch at the heart of the AI build-out.

In a nutshell, power-intensive facilities, like data centers, are being built faster than the U.S. grid can expand to accommodate them. As a result, the developers of these facilities can't build them just anywhere; they have to pick places where there's enough power to support their projects. And even then, there could still be a delay between when a data center is constructed and when it can actually get power.

Depending on the grid is cumbersome, and data centers tend to increase a community's electricity bills due to the enormous amount of power these server farms guzzle.

In short, it would be best if these AI factories could generate their own power. Bloom Boxes, which can be installed within 90 days, are exactly the kind of energy solution they need.

Bloom's growth is enormous; so are expectations

That preamble leads me to the opportunity. Few companies can offer what Bloom does. And it's showing up not only in today's revenue but also in what analysts are expecting over the next two years.

Data by YCharts.

Bloom generated about $2 billion in total revenue in 2025. It has already produced about that much (roughly $1.8 billion) through the first two quarters of 2026, and it projects it will finish the year with $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion, which would roughly double last year's revenue.

Analysts are expecting that figure to more than triple over the next two years, but that's a generous estimate for a company with a pipeline like Bloom's. The company entered 2026 with a roughly $20 billion backlog, but that figure has likely gone up. CEO KR Sridhar recently commented that Bloom's backlog was "growing faster than revenue." That could be a problem -- Bloom's manufacturing capacity could be limited -- but it's not a bad problem when your company is profitable.

There is, however, one big catch: Bloom's valuation. With a roughly $70 billion market cap, and just $251 of trailing-12-month net income, Bloom stock trades at around 280 times trailing earnings. That's expensive by any measure, and it assumes years of strong execution.

For most long-term investors, Bloom is still a buy, but only for those willing to accept some volatility along the way. Bloom stock looks poised for growth, but keep in mind the immense expectations already built into today's price and the downside that could follow if Bloom slips on its promises.

Steven Porrello has positions in Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

For well over a year, Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) has been one of the energy sector's top-performing stocks.

And for no small reason: The solid oxide fuel cell maker's energy systems -- sleek grey boxes that generate power on-site -- allow data centers to sidestep what could be a years-long wait to connect to the grid.

Bloom calls this its "time-to-power" advantage. Indeed, Bloom can make an energy system operational within 90 days, so it claims, and its deployment of a system for Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) within 55 days is testimony to how fast it can move. Few companies can deliver on-site power generation as fast as Bloom -- and a new deployment system could make that time advantage even stronger.

Bloom is moving electrical work into the factory.

Bloom's energy technology is pretty ingenious. Inside the box, Bloom's fuel cells use an electrochemical reaction to oxidize a fuel, such as natural gas, thereby releasing electrons. Those electrons then flow through an external circuit, generating an electric current. That current is then converted into usable electricity and delivered to a customer's facility.

These boxes are mass-produced in factories and shipped to clients for on-site installation. The installation phase, when the systems are wired and integrated, can involve extensive work and, therefore, considerable time. It follows, therefore, that if Bloom can reduce installation time, it could potentially deliver power to its clients faster.

And that's exactly what Bloom is doing.

On Aug. 19, 2026, it announced a new deployment system, "Power Connect." Unlike Bloom's current process, this one arrives "pre-connected, pre-wired, tested and ready for installation." Bloom believes the new system can cut onsite power installation time by over 40%. That makes an already speedy process that much faster.

Image source: Bloom Energy.

A faster installation process could help clear one of Bloom's bottlenecks.

As I've written about before, Bloom's biggest problem isn't demand. In fact, it's the opposite problem: It has too much demand. As CEO K.R. Sridhar put it in Bloom's second-quarter earnings call, Bloom's "backlog [is] growing at a faster pace than revenue." That's not a bad problem to have, but it does create some limit on how quickly Bloom can turn its project backlog into revenue.

Power Connect could, in this sense, help speed up the process tremendously. Under the old model, Bloom had to rely on skilled electricians to install energy systems. This is a problem because skilled electricians are in short supply across the U.S. By moving electrical work into the factory, Bloom can potentially scale its deployments without having to scale its installation workforce. It reduces a potential bottleneck, and, as a result, could put more servers in operation in a shorter time.

Don't miss that last point. A shorter deployment time is great for clients, but it's also great for Bloom: It means Bloom can convert more of its roughly $20 billion backlog into sales. Likewise, it could improve its installation margin by shifting electrical work into the factory, which could lower installation costs.

Bloom has been a market favorite: It's more than quadrupled over the past year, and it now trades at roughly 270 times its trailing earnings. That's not cheap by any measure. That said, if Power Connect allows Bloom to work through its backlog faster, while also reducing installation costs, today's lofty valuation could be easier to justify. I think it makes Bloom a compelling buy, albeit one I'd approach with patience, given how much future growth is already priced in.

Steven Porrello has positions in Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy and Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has always had a bold, and seemingly sci-fi, vision. In a nutshell, it wants to operate flying taxis to cut down travel and commuting time in busy, congested cities. And while that vision still very much belongs to the future, it is getting close enough to touch.

Joby recently reported what it called "its strongest quarterly progress yet" in the fifth and final stage of the Federal Aviation Administration's type certification process. This fifth stage is the "Show & Verify" stage, and Joby has started doing exactly that: demonstrating, through FAA-reviewed testing, that its aircraft meet the requirements needed for certification. As of July 31, the company completed 20% of this fifth-stage work, whereas the FAA had finished 10% of of its corresponding labor.

Don't miss the importance of this achievement. When Joby finishes this fifth stage, it will be in a position to receive FAA type certification for S4 -- the company's flagship electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVOTL) aircraft. In effect, completion of the process will clear one of the biggest hurdles toward commercializing its air taxi service in the U.S.

That is one reason growth investors might want to pick up some shares of Joby. But there's another -- and it's just as significant.

Joby is already preparing for life after certification

The second reason to consider Joby is that it's already working on -- and making significant progress solving -- its next major challenge: manufacturing a fleet of eVTOLs.

Since 2019, Joby has made a significant manufacturing partner out of Toyota Motor. Over the years, Toyota has committed almost $900 million to Joby. It has also contributed invaluable knowledge capital to Joby by helping it think through different parts of the production process, like manufacturing methods, tooling design, and supply chain management.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

In June 2026, this partnership deepened when Joby and Toyota launched the first phase of a strategic manufacturing alliance. The purpose of this alliance is to first lay the groundwork for the commercial production of Joby's eVTOLs. Henceforth, Toyota will also help Joby build more aircraft, faster, so it can get through certification and be ready to produce when eVTOL demand takes off.

Right now, Joby has produced five flying aircraft, and it has 12 more in production. The company will likely need hundreds, if not thousands, to support a dense network of air taxis across and beyond the U.S. Similarly, it needs to produce aircraft at a low enough cost to keep fares attractive and make each flight profitable.

This partnership is all the more valuable because Joby is building its aircraft largely in-house. In other words, instead of handing the work to an outside manufacturer, Joby has to master the mass production process itself. Toyota's expertise, therefore, could be the difference between Joby designing a certifiable aircraft and actually building a sizable fleet of them.

Joby still has plenty of execution challenges to work out beyond manufacturing; it is not a safe stock. Likewise, it's not cheap, trading at about 62 times sales. Still, given that urban air mobility could represent a trillion-dollar opportunity in the coming decades, Joby's progress on multiple fronts positions it as one of the better speculative plays on that opportunity.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Industrial stocks were, once again, top performers in the first half of 2026. Indeed, the Fidelity MSCI Industrials Index ETF (NYSEMKT: FIDU), which tracks companies of all sizes in the materials sector, posted a double-digit return in the first six months of the year. The only sector index in Fidelity's lineup that performed better was the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (NYSEMKT: FTEC).

Of course, the gains in both indexes have a common tailwind: artificial intelligence (AI). Data centers need the kind of hardware and infrastructure that industrial companies produce.

But not every compelling industrial growth stock is tied to the AI theme. Indeed, growth stock Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is pursuing something entirely different: the creation of a potentially enormous new transportation industry.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

Few industrial stocks have Joby's potential runway

Picture a world in which you don't have to sit in traffic, a world in which you can soar above congested city streets and reach your destination in a fraction of the time it would take to crawl there by car.

That's the kind of world Joby Aviation is trying to make. It's doing it with an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft -- an all-electric aircraft designed to take off vertically like a helicopter and fly forward like a plane. These "flying taxis," as they're often called, can seat four people (plus a pilot) and cover up to 100 miles on a single charge.

It could represent one of the most radical changes in urban transportation since the automobile remade the modern city. That is, if Joby can get its aircraft certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

On that front, however, Joby is making notable progress. As of July 31, it had completed 20% of its work in Stage 5, the fifth and final "Show & Verify" stage of the FAA's type-certification process, while the FAA had completed about 10% of its work. For context, Joby was roughly two-thirds of the way through Stage 4 at this time last year. That's significant progress in 12 months.

Indeed, with FAA certification getting closer and eVTOL manufacturing ramping up, Joby is starting to look like a different business. There's more substance to it than appearance. In August 2026, Joby announced it was acquiring Resonant Sciences, a fast-growing defense technology company with more than $100 million in trailing 12-month revenue. That deal would put a growing defense business alongside its air taxi ambitions, which makes Joby less dependent on a single path to growth.

Data by YCharts

For all the excitement of this acquisition, Joby's biggest opportunity remains with air taxis. Indeed, analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) once estimated that urban air mobility could become a $9 trillion market opportunity by 2050, with human transportation accounting for roughly $3.8 trillion of that total. In their view, flying cars could generate 18 times the profit of a ride-hauling vehicle, largely thanks to their ability to complete more trips per day and travel more miles per trip.

Joby trades at roughly 62 times sales, which leaves its valuation little room for slip-ups or surprise delays. Still, if the air taxi industry becomes even a fraction as large as Morgan Stanley once predicted, Joby's current valuation could eventually look small. This industrial stock comes with plenty of risks, but for growth investors, I think it's one of the more compelling speculative stocks in the industry.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Nuclear energy has staged an impressive comeback. After decades in which building new reactors in the U.S. seemed sluggish and expensive, surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and electrification have all at once made good ol' dependable nuclear one of the energy sectors' most promising commodities.

That, in itself, has created no shortage of nuclear energy stocks for investors to pick from today. Plenty of companies are vying for a slice of the new nuclear space, some more far along in their businesses, others with innovations that could shake up the entire industry.

On that note, if I had $1,000 to invest in a single nuclear stock and leave it untouched for years, I would choose a company whose reactor designs are positively disruptive, whose potential customer base is enormous, and whose business could become far more valuable if even a fraction of its ambitions came to fruition.

That company is Oklo (NYSE: OKLO).

How Oklo could ripen into one of nuclear's biggest winners

Oklo is, right now, like a vine of special grapes: Its business over the next decade could mature into a very fine wine. If things go badly, however, it could sour into a cheap vinegar. Let's start with the end result and work our way back. If Oklo stock becomes wine, it has done at least four things that it lacks today.

Foremost, it has licensed its Aurora reactor for commercial deployment. Second, it has secured enough high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) to support its reactors, a fuel that is scarce in the U.S. Third, it has proven it can scale its Aurora to attractive economics, meaning reactor margins are wide and profits are large. Lastly, it has deployed these reactors safely to a large enough customer base, which forms a solid foundation of recurring revenue.

These are all things I think Oklo can do. Its Aurora reactor is advancing through the Department of Energy's authorization process, and the company continues to target 2028 for the deployment of its first reactor. It has signed a letter of intent to purchase HALEU from Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU).

It hasn't proven its economics -- and probably can't until Aurora is actually built -- but its commercial pipeline is long and diverse, representing roughly 18 gigawatts (GW) of potential Aurora projects.

Image source: Oklo.

The bull case for Oklo comes with risks

There are, however, many things that could turn Oklo stock sour, and they aren't any less important or improbable than those that could mature it.

Oklo, for instance, could take much longer to secure proper licensing for its reactors; likewise, construction costs for its reactors could be excessively high, or take longer than expected to finish. HALEU fuel could become increasingly scarce -- Oklo isn't the only company that wants it -- or AI-related electricity demand starts to cool.

Perhaps most importantly of all, Oklo could burn through billions of dollars before it ever commercializes Aurora. That would force the company to raise fresh capital -- that is, dilute existing shareholders -- and make today's already lofty valuation increasingly difficult to justify.

In short, the company is a high-risk, high-reward play on AI and nuclear energy. Although risk-intolerant investors might want to look elsewhere -- a nuclear-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be interesting, too -- Oklo is the nuclear stock I'd choose for those with an appetite for risk.

Steven Porrello has positions in Oklo. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) is staging a comeback.

After a brutal July, during which a short-seller report combined with artificial intelligence (AI)-related market volatility to sink Bloom shares over 30%, the fuel-cell provider has climbed out of the gutter to rebound sharply in August. Shares had dropped to about $163 in late July; as of this writing, Bloom shares are trading at about $244 a pop, returning its year-to-date gain to triple digits.

The good news: I think the best days are still ahead for Bloom investors. Here's why the energy stock is a buy.

Time-to-power: Bloom's competitive edge

Bloom sells solid oxide fuel-cell systems. In a nutshell, these systems let customers generate electricity at their own site instead of waiting years to connect to the grid. Bloom can deploy these systems in 90 days or less -- it famously deployed a fully operational system to Oracle in just 55 days -- which aligns much better with the timelines of data center constructions than grid connections do.

Image source: Bloom Energy.

Bloom calls this "time-to-power," and it's one of the reasons it managed to triple its product revenue last quarter. It can take years for a new facility, like a factory or data center, to connect to a local grid, and that backlog is growing longer. Data center operators, who are spending billions on new constructions, can't afford to let their computing warehouses stand idle for years. Bloom compresses time-to-power, which can be worth more than the cost of the fuel system itself.

As such, Bloom's sales are exploding right now. It's second-quarter revenue crossed the billion-dollar market for the first time, and the company is now expecting total 2026 revenue to be in the range of $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion, or roughly double revenue from the year before. Analysts are expecting Bloom's revenue to more than double over the next two years, and that might be a conservative estimate.

Data by YCharts.

Bloom's sales growth is a boon as much as a risk. Indeed, perhaps the only damper on a bullish outlook is that Bloom's backlog is growing at a faster pace than revenue. CEO K.R. Sridhar says that Bloom can't scale as quickly as, say, a software company, and that supply constraint will likewise limit sales.

That's important to consider because Bloom does not have a cheap valuation. At today's price, it carries a roughly $70 billion market cap and trades at about 81 times forward earnings. Investors are clearly pricing in a lot of expectation for future growth, and if Bloom's sales can't keep pace, there could be bouts of immense volatility.

Still, given data center constructions and the need for onsite power generation, Bloom looks poised for growth. More importantly, the business underlying its recent rally looks much stronger and more mature. Its valuation is lofty, and investors should expect volatility. But for those willing to hold on through turbulence, I still think Bloom deserves a place in a long-term portfolio.

Steven Porrello has positions in Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy and Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The stock market is once again running with the bulls, with the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all up double digits on the year.

If market sentiments remain positive, all three major indexes could end 2026 with their fourth consecutive year of double-digit annual returns. That hasn't happened since before the dot-com bubble popped in 2000.

The year hasn't, however, been uniformly positive; several stocks have endured bouts of volatility, and much of the market's strength remains concentrated in a relatively small group of megacap companies. Indeed, beneath the surface of this year's growth, there are reasons to question how long this rally can reasonably continue, including a warning sign that today's market is historically expensive.

Image source: Getty Images.

The market is in rarified territory, and that might not be a good thing

Nobody can predict a market crash or downturn, and I definitely don't pretend to be more farsighted than I am. At the same time, there are valuation signals that shouldn't be ignored. They can't tell us when a correction will happen, but they can remind us to be cautious and deliberate at times when exuberance might be governing the market.

One of these metrics is the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio. In simple terms, the CAPE ratio shows how much investors are paying today for every dollar of earnings the S&P 500 has produced, on average, over the last 10 years. The higher the ratio, the more expensive the market looks relative to its history; the lower the ratio, the cheaper.

Over roughly 150 years of market history, the CAPE has averaged about 17. The figure has crossed the 24 marker on six occasions, and for much of the last decade, it has remained above that line. Only twice has the CAPE risen above 40. The first was in the years leading up to the dot-com bust, and the second is happening now.

The market's current CAPE is about 41.

Data by YCharts

Historically, a figure above 30 is very expensive territory; since it's only happened once before, this figure has almost no historical precedent. All we can say is that the market, on an adjusted-earnings level, is where it was in the years leading to the dot-com crash. That's not a reassuring comparison, but then again, history has given us only one other precedent, and that's too small a sample size to declare another crash is inevitable.

Still, if the CAPE's history can tell us anything about the market, it's that sharp declines tend to follow huge run-ups. We're currently in a bull phase of extreme optimism, and it's not unreasonable to expect a downturn.

Now more than ever, it's important to focus on how you pick your investments; identifying quality stocks with long-term potential may be more prudent than chasing speculative growth stocks whose lofty valuations could leave them vulnerable in a downturn. There's no reason to panic -- the bull market could continue for years -- yet fortifying your portfolio with durable businesses could make the next correction slightly less painful.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Some stocks need years to ripen into their best form. Others explode out of the gate and never look back. Somehow, Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) has been both.

Oklo went public via a special purpose acquisition company merger (SPAC) in May 2024. It debuted on the market with a share price of about $15.50. If you had invested $10,000 in Oklo, then (at $15.50 a share), you would have lost half your investment by the end of its first day on the market. Share prices collapsed to about $8.45. So much for Sam Altman's nuclear moonshot.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

From there, however, Oklo has staged an impressive climb. And while today's share price (about $44) is certainly not the highest it's ever peaked, it has roughly tripled from where it started on that bruising first day.

In other words, a $10,000 investment in Oklo at its starting price of $15.50 would be worth about $28,600 today, assuming shares were held consistently throughout.

At Oklo's peak of roughly $193 per share (in October 2025), that original $10,000 investment would have been worth more than $124,000 (briefly).

Oklo, to say the least, is not a normal nuclear energy stock. It has significant upside, but the risks are just as enormous. The company has, I think, matured significantly since hitting that peak of $193, but the road from today's early-stage reactor developer to a profitable business is long and enveloped in mist. The company still has to prove its harder parts -- license Aurora for commercial deployment, then actually deploy Aurora for profit -- but for those who can wait patiently, the stock has the potential to return to those high levels.

Steven Porrello has positions in Oklo. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) stock is down over 20% in 2026 and trades roughly 56% below its 52-week high of $14.60. Those glaring red numbers, however, don't tell you the full story. Indeed, the irony in Archer's recent decline is that, even while it trades in the red, its business has never looked stronger.

Archer is becoming a stronger company

At its core, Archer Aviation is developing an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft called Midnight.

This small electric aircraft is being designed to lift straight off a rooftop and fly you to your destination in about 10 to 15 minutes. If Archer can get Midnight through the FAA's regulatory process, which it has been progressing through steadily, commercialization of this air taxi could unlock untold billions in revenue.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

That's been Archer's primary story. But recently, it's added another node to its growth thesis: defense.

In one sense, Archer has always had defense in mind. It partnered with defense technology company Anduril in 2024, and it has worked with the Department of Defense through the Air Force's AFWERX program since 2021. But that side of its business has perhaps never looked more substantial than it does today.

In July 2026, Archer and Anduril unveiled a jointly developed autonomous platform for defense and commercial applications. Anduril revealed its defense variant, Thunder, while Archer revealed a commercial variant, Halo.

These aircraft use a hybrid-electric powertrain, so they're not, strictly speaking, eVTOLs. That's not a bad thing: The hybrid design gives them a greater range than an aircraft that runs on battery power, like Midnight. This, in turn, could open the door to businesses whose purposes for aircraft would be utterly impractical for an urban air taxi.

Then, in August, Archer made another announcement: It agreed to acquire three businesses from Boeing -- Wisk Aero, Insitu, and SkyGrid -- largely in exchange for newly minted Archer stock and warrants. One of these businesses, Insitu, is a profitable defense company that has generated over $200 million in annual revenue. Compare that to Archer's revenue last quarter ($5 million), and you can see how this acquisition could give Archer something it badly needs.

Why I think the sell-off creates an opportunity for long-term investors

First off, don't get the wrong impression. These developments in Archer's defense business, while strengthening the company overall, don't change what Archer needs most to grow in the long term: an FAA-certified Midnight.

More than that, it needs hundreds of these bad boys operating in U.S. cities and around the world. That's the vision Archer sold to early investors, and that's the reality Archer needs to realize if it wants to grow significantly.

At the same time, Archer is trading at half its former 52-week high while also looking a little less speculative. The company still needs to work on its fundamentals and obtain FAA type certification for its eVTOL Midnight.

But today's price gives investors a better risk-reward setup than they had when Archer stock was at near highs. There's still plenty of risk, but for investors willing to stomach the volatility, I think Archer's beaten-down price offers a compelling long-term opportunity.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

One year ago, Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) was an eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft start-up with a wild vision: flying taxis. Fast forward to now, and Archer has advanced the defense and military side of its business, which could lead to meaningful revenue. And it will likely get better from here.

Archer trades at about $6.50 a share with a market cap of roughly $5 billion. It's very possible that if Archer continues on its current path, a $10,000 investment in the stock today will reach a value between $12,000 to $15,000 by 2029. If we take dilution into account (more on that below), it would imply a return of 20% to 50% over the next three years, which could make Archer a buy for certain investors today. Let's take a closer look at the math.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

How does Archer grow 20% to 50% by 2029?

The first piece to this puzzle is revenue.

To grow up to 50% by 2029, which would put its market cap in the neighborhood of about $8 billion to $9.6 billion, after dilution is taken into account (we'll get there), Archer will need revenue, and lots of it. Last quarter (Q2), the company reported about $5 million in revenue; the quarter before, it was $1.6 million. On the surface, that's not a lot, but Wall Street is expecting extraordinary revenue growth from here.

Data by YCharts

The chart above implies a 483% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next two fiscal years. If that seems unusually high, just remember Archer is basically starting from zero.

This agrees with -- or rather, doesn't disagree with -- a separate set of predictions reported by Barron's in May. Analysts, as reported in that article, expect Archer's revenue to reach $1.6 billion by 2029, while also achieving positive free cash flow. Between $511 million in 2028 and $1.6 billion the year after is a roughly 213% year-over-year growth.

Now, let's do some reverse engineering.

Let's suppose Archer stock trades between 5 and 6 times its sales in 2029. At $1.6 billion in revenue, that would give Archer a market cap in the ballpark of $8 billion to $9.6 billion, which would be up from today's roughly $5 billion market cap (this fluctuates day by day, so it might be lower or higher than that figure). That would mean Archer's market valuation would grow between 50% and 85% over the next three years.

But wait, you might object, didn't I say above that growth in Archer stock would imply a return of 20% to 50%? Yes, and that's where stock dilution comes in.

Archer currently has about 770 million Class A shares outstanding, and that number is almost certainly going to rise, especially if its recent acquisitions from Boeing close. Just for simplicity's sake, let's assume Archer has about one billion shares outstanding by 2029. If you grant me that assumption, an $8 billion to $9.6 billion market cap would translate into a share price of about $8 to $9.60, or roughly 20% to 50% above today's price.

However you slice it, Archer's growth prospects are improving. Although the company carries significant risks -- it's still lacking FAA type certification to launch its eVTOL business commercially -- risk-tolerant investors might want to consider opening or adding to a small position at today's price.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

After a relatively quiet first half of the year, Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) has kicked things into high gear. It's announced a flurry of exciting developments in recent weeks, the most recent of which involves its longtime partner, aerospace giant Boeing (NYSE: BA)

Archer has agreed to buy three Boeing businesses -- Wisk Aero, Insitu, and SkyGrid -- in exchange for newly issued Archer stock. When the deal closes, Archer will issue Boeing a stake in its stock equal to 19.75% of Class A shares immediately beforehand.

Archer stock surged as much as 25%, but has since dialed back to a roughly 13% gain at the time of this writing. Still, the news has reinvigorated Archer investors with what could become one of the most consequential deals in the company's short history -- at least, from the standpoint of its burgeoning defense business.

Let's look at why the deal matters, the pros and the cons, and whether it makes me more or less bullish on Archer stock.

Boeing is giving Archer's defense business a major boost

Archer is trying to build new aircraft for urban transportation, military, and defense. For almost its entire life, the company has been working tirelessly to certify its Midnight eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) aircraft, which would enable it to commercialize its air taxi business.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

Most people have known Archer from this vision of urban air travel, which has often been likened to flying cars (though don't get your hopes up: Midnight is nothing like the hovering cars of Back to the Future: Part II). But lately Archer has leaned harder into another side of its business, one that could put much-needed revenue in its pockets before the air taxi side is clear for takeoff.

That side of its business is defense. Archer has worked with the U.S. Department of Defense for years, but its current defense business ramped up in late 2024, when Archer and the defense technology company Anduril established a strategic partnership. The fruits of that relationship emerged last month, when the companies unveiled a jointly developed autonomous platform and its military variant, Thunder.

It's no shocker, then, that one of the three Boeing businesses Archer is acquiring is also a meaningfully profitable military-drone company -- Insitu. Insitu, which deals in uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), and has manufactured and fielded more than 3,500 of them, is generating more than $200 million in annual revenue. That's almost $200 million more than what Archer itself generated in 2025 (about $300,000).

Archer also bought Wisk, a separate eVTOL company, which has completed more than 1,700 flight tests of its own eVTOLs, and SkyGrid, an air traffic management platform.

Altogether, these three businesses, along with Archer's other air taxi and defense businesses, are turning Archer into a much broader aerospace company, one that could control much more of the technology behind autonomous aviation than previously thought.

The hefty cost of the deal: dilution

For Archer investors, these three businesses came at a cost -- the cost of dilution.

It's always a threat when you invest in an early-stage company that it will rely heavily on equity to fund its expansion, development, and research. Likewise, the Boeing-Archer deal means investors will own a smaller percentage of Archer once the deal is done. Boeing also has two warrants, which could cause further dilution down the line.

That isn't insignificant, but whether the dilution proves worthwhile will ultimately depend on how much Wisk, Insitu, and SkyGrid improve Archer's long-term growth story.

On the one hand, the deal certainly diversifies Archer's business. It's not completely reliant on Midnight's certification to get its revenue going. On the other hand, Archer still doesn't have an air taxi business. We can't let a blockbuster deal obscure that fact. No matter how successful the defense side becomes, without certification for Midnight, manufacturing Midnight to scale, and putting paying passengers in the air, Archer will likely never live up to lofty expectations.

In the end, the deal makes me less cautious about Archer's future, but not yet more bullish. I might buy a few more shares of Archer, but until I see advancements in Midnight's certification, I'm not ready to make Archer a much larger position.

Steven Porrello has positions in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) has spent the better part of its life trying to make electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft into a real, sustainable business. Now, oddly enough, one of its biggest developments of the year has almost nothing to do with eVTOLs -- at least, not yet.

On Aug. 11, Joby announced that it will acquire defense technology company Resonant Sciences for about $500 million, including about $450 million in cash and $50 million in Joby stock. Resonant, which generated more than $100 million in trailing-12-month revenue, will eventually become Joby’s dedicated defense business. That means the Joby team can continue working on its air taxi service, while the Resonant team works on defense technology, with plenty of potential for cross-pollination between the two sides.

The deal makes Joby a much stronger, more diversified business. But whether it makes Joby a stronger stock is a more complicated question. Let’s take a closer look.

Resonant makes Joby a stronger business, but not a safer stock.

Joby Aviation, as I alluded to above, has been trying to build an electric air taxi company. It is indeed widely considered the frontrunner in the nascent eVTOL industry, due in large part to its lead in flight testing and its progress through the FAA’s type certification process.

Joby used about $318 million in operating cash over the first six months of 2026, while reporting about $63 million over the same period. Much of that revenue comes from Blade Air Mobility, which it acquired in 2025. The company still had a hefty liquidity cushion, about $2.3 billion at the end of June, but it badly needs its revenue base to grow if it wants to avoid further shareholder dilution down the road.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

In this context, the acquisition of Resonant is an A-. It’s an “A,” because it gives Joby a revenue stream tied to a fast-growing business. Resonant has grown its trailing-12-month revenue by roughly 40% year over year, generates positive adjusted EBITDA, and has an established customer base that includes the U.S. government.

It’s an “A-,” and not an “A+,” however, because it’s dedicating a sizable chunk of its liquidity to the acquisition. Paying $450 million in cash would reduce Joby’s total liquidity to about $1.85 billion, all else equal. Still sizable, but it shaves about eight to nine months from Joby’s cash runway, assuming, of course, its recent burn rate stays consistent.

It’s not, however, a bad deal. In fact, I would call it a smart move. Historically, military demand has often subsidized (and accelerated) aviation technologies that later have civilian applications, and Resonant’s defense business could fit into that pattern. Indeed, Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE:MS) eVTOL report, which predicted the global urban air mobility to $9 trillion by 2050, once named “national security” as one of the five main accelerants for urban air.

Does this make Joby a screaming buy?

I don’t think the acquisition makes Joby a screaming buy. Joby, which carries a roughly $8 billion market cap, is still being valued primarily on its commercial air taxi services, which, mind you, haven't yet received FAA type certification. Although the expansion into defense adds revenue Joby didn’t have yesterday, it also adds another layer of risk to the whole enterprise, if only because eight to nine months of cash cushion will go toward it.

After the acquisition, I like Joby stock a little more, but my position hasn’t fundamentally changed: the stock is still, I think, a high-risk, high-reward play on an industry that doesn’t yet exist. Aggressive investors might be interested, but I’d keep my position small until that FAA type certification for its eVTOL is in hand.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) is finally having the moment investors have been waiting for.

On Friday, Aug. 7, Oklo reported its first-ever quarterly revenue. Although it also reported a wider-than-expected net loss of about $48.5 million, Oklo managed to rake in $1.21 million in revenue, up from none a year earlier. Operating expenses soared to about $74 million, but the balance sheet had $3 billion in total liquidity.

Furthermore, Oklo's Groves Reactor, a test reactor, achieved first criticality, meaning it sustained a controlled nuclear chain reaction for the first time.

At the time of this writing -- about 12:10 p.m. ET on Aug. 7 -- Oklo has popped over 14% on the news. If this gain holds through the closing bell, it would trim Oklo's 2026 loss to roughly 34%.

A million and some change in revenue is a meaningful change from zero last year, but does it really justify a 13% pop in the stock? In other words, is Oklo still riding on hype, or are we witnessing the salad days of a millionaire maker in the making?

Oklo is turning hype into progress

Oklo is building three businesses at once. The first is small nuclear reactors; the second is fuel fabrication and recycling; and the third is isotopes. Oklo's small nuclear reactors -- called Aurora powerhouses -- are being designed for commercial deployment, while its isotope business will address a need for scarce radioactive materials.

Together, these three businesses could turn Oklo's meager $1 million in quarterly revenue today into multibillions. Just as an illustration, a 75-megawatt (MW) reactor with an average electricity price of $100 per megawatt-hour and operating at 90% capacity would generate about $59 million in annual revenue, or about $15 million quarterly. Around 17 of these reactors would therefore produce roughly $1 billion a year.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Oklo has previously disclosed roughly 18 gigawatts (GW) of potential demand for Aurora. Using the assumptions above, 18 GW would generate about $14 billion in annual revenue.

On those, and similar back-of-the-envelope calculations, rests the most bullish case for Oklo. Indeed, as its reactor designs advance through the regulatory process, the argument that Oklo is all hype is getting harder and harder to defend.

Oklo still faces a commercialization problem, though. The pre-commercial status of its Aurora powerhouse makes it difficult to validate its economics. How much will they cost to build and deploy? Will they be considerably profitable, or just a little? And will there be as much demand for nuclear power in the future as we're expecting today?

In short, Oklo is undergoing a transformation -- slow, but steady. My only hesitation is that the stock's valuation is moving a lot quicker than the business. If we simply annualized its quarterly revenue of $1.2 million, then Oklo's roughly $8 billion market cap would value the company at more than 1,700 times sales. That calculation is admittedly flawed, since most of this quarter's revenue came from businesses acquired in June, but still, it illustrates just how much future growth is built into the stock.

Oklo might be an exciting play on AI energy for some, but for the more risk-intolerant, a nuclear exchange-traded fund (ETF) might be the safer bet.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) is a $10 nuclear stock with a $10 trillion market opportunity in front of it.

That figure comes from a Bank of America report which projects that nuclear energy could represent a $10 trillion global investment over the next 25 years. More importantly, it predicts that small modular reactors (SMR) will become one of the most consequential energy technologies over the next two decades.

SMR technology is NuScale's bread and butter, and to date, it is the only U.S. company with an SMR design approved by the NRC. That gives it a leg up on competitors and has enabled it to pursue SMR projects in the U.S, including a potential 6-gigawatt SMR deployment program with Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and ENTRA1 Energy.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

At roughly $10 per share, NuScale carries a $3.6 billion market cap. If the stock were to grow tenfold to $100 over the next 10 years, NuScale's market valuation would be about $36 billion before factoring in future dilution.

That's pretty aggressive, but not inconceivable. For example, TVA's 6 GW deployment program would require about 72 NuScale SMR modules. If each of those modules sold for $100 million -- which is a figure for illustrative purposes only, not a company-disclosed number -- then 72 modules would equal about $7.2 billion in revenue.

NuScale's commercial partner, ENTRA1, still needs to ink a binding power purchase agreement with the TVA before this potential 6 GW deployment can start to look like a commercial reality. So, it's not guaranteed revenue yet. Still, if NuScale can see this project to the finish, and add one or two other large-scale deployments, then a tenfold gain in its market value would start to look more realistic.

A $100 NuScale share is still a bull-case scenario, but if the next decade can turn NuScale's NRC-approved reactor into a scalable product, a $36 billion valuation might not look so far-fetched in 2036.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

As of this writing on Aug. 5, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is trading at its highest level ever. It is on track to notch its sixth consecutive day of gains. Already, the S&P 500 index is up roughly 13% in 2026; if this bull market continues, the index will close 2026 with its fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains -- a multi-year streak not seen since the mid-90s dot-com era.

There's another similarity between today's bull market and the dot-com era's bull market. And while it doesn't mean today's market will meet the same fate as the dot-com crash, it is a strong warning that a downturn is likely coming. Here's what I mean.

Image source: Getty Images.

The S&P 500 is reaching extreme valuations unseen in decades

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio compares the S&P 500's current price with its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade. Looking at a full decade of earnings, rather than just one or two years, helps smooth out the market's ups and downs. It's one of the most widely followed indicators of the stock market's valuation. And it has gotten seriously high.

Data by YCharts

As the chart above suggests, the CAPE has averaged about 16-17 over the last 150 years. Notice, for instance, that the CAPE has exceeded 24 only a handful of times. Many of those periods ended in some of the worst market crashes in history, including the Great Depression and the dot-com crash.

Only twice has the CAPE climbed above 40: first during the late 1990s when it peaked at about 44, and again today, when it sits at roughly 41.4. Put differently, investors are paying about $40 for every $1 of the S&P 500's average-inflation adjusted earnings over the last decade. Compared with a historical CAPE of 17, investors are paying roughly $23 more per dollar of earnings, or a premium of about 135% more.

A CAPE above 40 is a once-in-a-generation event -- or "twice" if you happened to be investing during the dot-com era. It doesn't mean a crash is imminent. However, it does show that investors are placing unusually high value on future growth. If that growth falls short of expectations -- say, if companies fail to earn an adequate return on their enormous artificial intelligence spending -- there could be a very painful reset in stock valuations.

The best strategies for investors right now

If the stock market is overvalued, as the CAPE suggests, the best strategy is to choose quality over hype. In practice, that could mean questioning stocks whose prices are driven more by speculation and promises than by business fundamentals. It can also mean putting financial health first; that is, looking for companies with low debt, abundant cash, consistent cash flow, and strong, stable earnings.

To be sure, high-quality stocks aren't always the most exciting investments, nor the most likely to post double-digit gains over the long run. If your strategy is growth, you might not be very inclined to restrict your selection to blue chip stocks and other safe stocks.

In that case, one of investing's oldest rules becomes especially important: Know what you're buying. Make sure you understand the business, the risks, and what must absolutely go right for its valuation to make sense before buying a speculative stock.

Historically, buying high-quality stocks has paid off over long periods. And while no stock is immune to market downturns, building a diversified portfolio around financially robust companies is still one of the best ways to prepare for whatever comes next.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

If you've been feeling apprehensive about the stock market lately, you're in the majority. Around three-quarters of American investors said they were concerned about a market downturn in 2026, according to a July survey by MarketWise.

Pessimism about the future of the market isn't unusual: Even in the most bullish runs, fears of a market crash are present. But what is unusual about the current bull run is the historic valuation extreme it's approaching -- one seen only once in the last 150 years.

Image source: Getty Images.

The stock market is approaching its priciest level of all time

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, which divides the price of an index, such as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), by its average inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years, has climbed to a startling level. By one calculation, the CAPE ratio currently sits at roughly 41.4 -- only a few points below the all-time high reached in the dot-com era.

Data by YCharts.

A high CAPE ratio usually indicates that stocks are very expensive, at least by historical standards. For context, the CAPE ratio has averaged about 16 to 17 over the last century and a half, and it has crossed the 30 marker only a handful of times, most notably during the Roaring '20s (i.e., just before the Great Depression) and the tech bubble of the late '90s.

Each time the CAPE ratio has risen steeply in a short period, as the graph suggests, a market decline followed.

If history is sending a warning, how can investors prepare?

If a correction or crash is imminent, the best bear market stocks are those with strong fundamentals. Practically speaking, look for companies with fortress balance sheets: that is, low debt and abundant cash. In addition, these companies should be highly profitable, with steady earnings growth and consistent cash flow.

Companies with predictable earnings are likewise usually more resilient during downturns, even if they seem pretty boring during bull runs. For example, consumer staples stocks tend to perform better in bear markets because people still need to buy necessities, market crash or not. Ditto for healthcare stocks.

It's never a bad idea to diversify your portfolio, too. Rather than investing predominantly in a single sector, spreading money among multiple industries could cushion the blow if one or several areas of the market take a severe hit.

Whatever lies next for the market, history shows the best response is to buy quality stocks for the long term. Though no one knows what's next for the market, holding on to durable businesses through volatility has historically produced strong results.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Yesterday, Aug. 5, NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) reported what, on the surface, looked like a brutal quarter. Its net loss came in at about $50 million, while its second-quarter revenue sank 99%, from roughly $8 million reported a year ago to about $75,000. It’s the kind of quarterly report that can sink a stock at market open.

And yet, as of this writing at about 10:45 a.m. ET, NuScale was up nearly 1%.

What kind of wizardry sends a nuclear energy stock higher after a revenue collapse of nearly 99%? None, really. Truth be told, it’s a reflection of a company whose value has almost nothing to do with what it earns today. And, despite the ugly losses, NuScale gave investors reasons to keep believing in its future business. Let’s take a look.

NuScale’s revenue collapse isn’t as bad as it looks.

First, let’s put that 99% revenue decline into context.

Really, it’s not what you think. Last year, NuScale reported $8.1 million, largely from services connected with the RoPower project in Romania. That was one-time work, now completed, and it now looks therefore lumpy. The same thing happened in its Q1 2026 update, when it reported $0.6 million, down from $13.4 million a year prior.

The bigger news that came out of this second-quarter update, I think, was a statement by President and CEO John Hopkins -- or a reminder, really -- that NuScale is “ready to deploy.” Indeed, for much of his presentation, Hopkins focused on the over 60 suppliers that make up NuScale’s supply chain. These include Paragon, which supplies the module protection system, and Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON), which supplies parts for the reactor’s control systems.

In focusing on these suppliers, NuScale was emphasizing its readiness to deploy. It’s like the company was saying: True, we haven’t deployed a reactor for a power plant yet. But don’t forget who we are and where we stand: We’re not a start-up clawing our way through the NRC’s certification process. We have our NRC certificate, we have our suppliers, and we have the manufacturing foundation to put our design into concrete and steel.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Slow progress can be smart progress

“Well, so what?” you might retort. Tomorrow is not today, and NuScale has had an NRC-approved SMR design since 2023. Where are the power plants? The deployment timeline? The PPAs?

Yes, the absence of a definitive PPA -- especially for the potential TVA project being developed through ENTRA1 -- was somewhat disappointing. If ENTRA1 signs a PPA with TVA, which would involve purchasing electricity generated by as many as 72 NuScale modules, NuScale would gain something it still conspicuously lacks: a binding commercial contract for its technology at an enormous scale.

I don’t want to diminish the importance of a first solid customer. At the same time, I also don’t want to understate the importance of a safe, functional reactor. Hopkins puts it well:

This is not a story about nuclear being hard to build. It is a story about what happens when you start construction without a mature, detailed design. NuScale has spent years deliberately applying the hard lessons of past large-scale nuclear projects. We've made significant, sustained investment so that when we go to market, the engineering is as complete as possible.

Slow but steady, as they say, wins the race. This deliberate progress from one of the most advanced SMR companies in the U.S. helps explain why NuScale stock can rise even while quarterly revenue falls. It’s also why NuScale investors today have to buy the stock with a timeline of years and decades, not quarters. For those with that kind of patience and risk tolerance, adding a few shares of NuScale to a diversified portfolio could be worthwhile.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Honeywell Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) has lost about 37% of its value since hitting an all-time high just a few weeks ago. It was trading at around $345 a share then -- and it's at about $218 now.

Normally, a steep decline of that caliber would tell you something went wrong with Bloom's business. In the case of the hydrogen stock, however, the opposite is the case.

Indeed, the company's most recent earnings report was arguably its strongest yet. Bloom raked in over $1 billion in revenue, marking its first billion-dollar quarter in company history, and both margins and profitability improved significantly. To top it off, management raised 2026 revenue guidance (again) into the range of $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion.

Image source: Bloom Energy.

What's more, Wall Street expects Bloom's revenue to more than triple over the next two years, as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom will likely fuel stronger demand for its solid oxide fuel cell systems.

Data by YCharts.

Bloom looks pricey on a trailing basis -- trading at about 24 times sales -- but considerably less expensive when valued against the revenue forecasts in the chart above. If analysts are right, the stock trades at roughly 11 times next fiscal year's expected sales.

The average price target for Bloom is about $274, about 25% above its current share price of $220. That isn't guaranteed upside -- it's just Wall Street's opinion -- but it shows how bullish analysts are today.

If there's data center growth in the future, then there's a big opportunity for Bloom to keep growing. Since we're still just in phase one of AI, buying Bloom at today's relatively lower price could be the entry point long-term investors have been waiting for.

Steven Porrello has positions in Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Oklo(NYSE:OKLO), the reactor developer, will report its second-quarter earnings before the bell on Friday, Aug. 7. Given Oklo’s current lack of revenue, its heavy losses, and its fairly aggressive valuation, the nuclear company will have to report big news for the stock to reverse course.

So far in 2026, Oklo’s share price has lost about 40% of its value. And yet, many analysts remain bullish on nuclear energy, especially companies developing advanced reactors such as Oklo.

Analysts from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) see nuclear developing into a $10 trillion opportunity, with small reactors representing the “most consequential energy technologies for the next 25 years.”

Between that multi-trillion-dollar opportunity and today’s cash-burning nuclear developers, however, lie several chasms of technical, regulatory, financial, executional, and macroeconomic risks. Simply put, no U.S. company has ever built and operated a fleet of small nuclear reactors at a commercial scale. Without proof of concept, any forecast for advanced nuclear’s future market remains highly speculative.

With this context in mind, here is what I would watch for when Oklo reports earnings on Friday.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Aurora’s timeline, operating expenses, and liquidity

Oklo’s business depends on the commercialization of its flagship product, Aurora. Without a license to operate this fast neutron reactor commercially, even conservative growth scenarios would fall apart.

The reason traces back to the catalyst behind the $10 trillion market opportunity cited above: AI data centers.

Oklo’s sodium-cooled reactor is most attractive to customers who need reliable, round-the-clock power delivered directly at or near their facilities. Its simpler design is intended to make Aurora more compact than the big, sprawling nuclear power plants of the last half-century. The idea is that Oklo will deploy multiple Aurora powerhouses to data centers to supply electricity that might otherwise strain the grid. Data center operators, for their part, may be willing to pay a premium for Oklo’s reactors, not just for dependable onsite power but also for the possibility of getting power faster than a conventional grid connection.

Here’s the kicker, though: We don’t have an example of Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse in the wild. The closest thing is Oklo’s first project at Idaho National Laboratory, where the company has broken ground and is targeting operations for late 2027 or early 2028.

Given this, I would hope for a concrete update on Aurora’s regulatory progress this Friday, or at least on the construction of its first powerhouse in Idaho. I would also expect Oklo to address why it didn’t achieve criticality of its Groves Isotope Test Reactor -- a different reactor design than Aurora -- which it had targeted for America’s 250th birthday on July 4.

Investors should also pay attention to Oklo’s operating expenses, which have been growing rapidly. It isn’t uncommon for a nuclear company in the early stages of development to spend more on research and development. As spending accelerates, however, Oklo will draw more heavily on its liquidity, which totaled about $2.54 billion at the end of March.

Finally, investors should keep in mind that developments in nuclear energy have historically been very slow. For good reason: Nuclear fission releases huge amounts of energy, and regulators must be certain that a reactor can control and contain that radiation before allowing hundreds, or even thousands, to operate across the country. Slow progress is therefore not necessarily bad news, but any delays to Oklo’s aggressive timeline could make its valuation -- about $7.5 billion -- much harder to defend.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) is slated to report second-quarter earnings after the bell on Aug. 5, 2026. And, boy oh boy, is the timing tense.

So far in 2026, Joby stock has plummeted about 50%. Investors, while mostly bullish on electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) stocks in 2025, have seemingly lost interest.

Part of that is because Joby’s fundamental challenge hasn’t changed: It still needs FAA type certification before it can scale its eVTOL business. The financial consequence of that delayed commercialization will probably show up again in its second-quarter results, with Wall Street expecting a loss of roughly $0.21 per share.

Anyone who has invested in Joby is probably aware of the company’s cash-burning problems. What could send the stock plummeting after the bell on Aug. 5, however, would be related to FAA type certification progress, or lack thereof.

If Joby’s progress appears stalled -- or its pace appears decelerated -- the money-losing eVTOL start-up could be in for a difficult second-half of 2026.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Joby cannot afford a vague certification update.

Joby is flying into its second-quarter earnings with a market cap of about $7 billion despite lacking an FAA-certified eVTOL and generating little revenue from its core business.

Announcement-wise, Joby’s second quarter has seemed pretty solid. In late April, Joby flew an eVTOL from JFK airport to heliports in Manhattan in under 10 minutes, completing the first-ever point-to-point eVTOL flight in the Big Apple. In June, Joby and its long-term manufacturing partner, Toyota, (NYSE:TM) announced a formal joint effort called the Joby Toyota Aero Manufacturing Preparation Company (JTAMPC), aimed at scaling production of Joby’s S4 electric taxis.

Finally, in July, Joby finalized a definitive agreement with Virgin Atlantic to bring Joby’s air-taxi services to the United Kingdom. Under the agreement, Virgin Atlantic users will be able to book Joby air taxis through the airline’s mobile app and website, adding another big name to Joby’s commercial partnership list, which includes Delta (NYSE:DAL) and Uber (NYSE:UBER).

This has all been great. But none of it answers the question that matters most for its valuation right now: When will Joby break the regulatory dam holding back its highly anticipated commercial launch? Is the company moving quickly enough through the FAA type certification process, and, if so, when should investors expect eVTOL commercialization?

Anything short of specific, concrete language around FAA testing -- not vague, evasive wording -- could be read as a disappointment, especially since none of the company’s biggest second-quarter announcements moved the needle on Joby stock.

It’s worth noting that Joby reported an earnings beat in Q1 that led to a roughly 21% one-day surge. Shares of Joby were trading at roughly $10.50 the day after reporting first-quarter earnings on May 5, and that winning streak continued until they rose north of $12 at the end of May, after which shares began to slide. The stock currently trades at about $7.50.

Given what investors know going into second-quarter earnings, a meaningful certification or commercialization milestone would be the reason for a surge on the same level as last quarter’s. Without one, however, Joby’s second-quarter report could send the stock into another tailspin.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

It's a gut-wrenching feeling when a stock you're bullish on suddenly tanks. It's downright terrifying when the forces that were supposed to lift that stock higher all seem to vanish at once.

With that in mind, let's run a scenario on Oklo (NYSE: OKLO). Could this early-stage developer of advanced nuclear reactors, which has tanked about 80% since last October, survive without an AI boom?

What could happen to Oklo if AI demand disappoints?

On the one hand, Oklo could survive without an AI boom. On the other hand, its bull case would not.

A quick glance at Oklo's project pipeline would suffice to illustrate what I mean. Its 18-gigawatt (GW) backlog is anchored by two major agreements: Switch's, up to 12 GW, and Meta's, up to 1.2 GW. If we throw in Equinix's at 500 megawatts (MW), then about 93% of Oklo's backlog is associated with AI data centers.

Image source: Oklo.

None of these are binding agreements. An AI bust, by implication, could easily leave this non-diversified pipeline looking like a creek-bed in a dry spell.

In such a scenario, revenue growth from non-AI-related demand would be much harder to scale. Think about it like this. A single hyperscaler can absorb hundreds or thousands of megawatts (MW) of electricity, which requires a dozen or so of Oklo's 75-MW powerhouses to match it. If multiple data centers belong to the same operator, such as Equinix or Switch, then Oklo could potentially secure hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in annual revenue through one relationship. As you can imagine, a few of these commercial partnerships could open the throttle on Oklo's growth.

If all our AI hopes and dreams flop, Oklo's fast-fission reactors could still attract clients, like chemical factories, military camps, and utilities. But none of these would likely need more than one or a few of Oklo's 75-MW powerhouses. The opportunity would be there, but it wouldn't be as big as the needs of a data center.

A bright spot, and a caveat

That said, one non-AI bright spot for Oklo right now is its isotope business.

These special materials are used in cancer treatment and diagnostic imaging, among other things, and global supply is very constrained. Oklo's subsidiary, Atomic Alchemy, was recently granted a Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license for isotope material, which basically means it can start selling recovered and prepared materials from its Idaho laboratory. The larger point: Oklo could soon have a source of revenue that's not tied to AI, one that might even arrive before its first powerhouse begins generating electricity.

Still, even with a thriving radioisotope business, Oklo needs the opportunity from AI to justify its current valuation. It carries a market cap above $7 billion, which is mid-cap territory, yet it generated zero revenue in 2025.

When measured against Wall Street's revenue estimates, the valuation looks even more absurd. Two fiscal years from now, projected revenue is about $55 million, which means Oklo stock trades at about 127 times forward sales. That leaves absolutely no room for an AI bust, not even a small one.

Data by YCharts.

To get back to the question at hand: No, Oklo would not be an attractive buy if AI turns out to be a bust.

Without hyperscale customers, Oklo's order book would evaporate, and it would need to have binding agreements with industrial and defense clients to restore even a modicum of confidence. Likewise, radioisotopes are an exciting side venture, but if they turn into Oklo's main sale, the business's total addressable market (TAM) will shrink meaningfully.

Like other energy stocks connected to AI, Oklo needs the technology to justify its valuation. That tenuous relationship is why this stock will tank on any negative AI news -- and why investors with a weak stomach for volatility should probably stay away from it for now.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Equinix and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Trading at about a $17 share price, Nano Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE) has the sort of moonshot potential that could turn a modest investment into something larger.

That's not because of the low sticker price. Any cheap-looking stock could pop at the drop of a hat, but only those with a compelling business model to match will sustain their gains over the long term.

For Nano Nuclear, the long-term upside is tied to future energy consumption. The technology being built, a nuclear microreactor, could be essential for generating the kind of reliable, round-the-clock power that many industries need, including data center operators, military and research bases, and mining and industrial sites.

Image source: Getty Images.

Electricity demand is expected to rise sharply enough that analysts at Bank of America believe nuclear energy could unlock a market opportunity worth up to $10 trillion over the next 25 years.

Future energy demands are one reason to feel optimistic about Nano. But it's not the main reason I recommend Nano as a long-term nuclear pick.

Vertical integration offers an edge

Nano is building a vertically integrated nuclear platform. In addition to shrinking a nuclear reactor to the size of a shipping container, it also wants to fabricate nuclear fuel, transport it via NRC-approved routes, sell consulting services, and develop reactors for space and marine applications.

In May 2026, Nano acquired Secured Transportation Services (STS), a nuclear logistics and transportation company, which holds approvals to operate on over 90% of active NRC-approved spent-fuel routes in the U.S. STS was profitable in 2025, and, over time, its capabilities will be integrated into Nano's platform to service Nano's reactors and other customers as well.

The average price target for Nano stock is $42, implying 147% upside. Long-term, however, Nano's businesses -- microreactor deployment, fuel fabrication, transportation, and extraterrestrial reactors -- could support a larger company than what the most bullish price target today suggests.

Don't get me wrong: It could be decades before Nano reaches its full potential. For risk-tolerant investors who can wait that long, $5,000 invested today could grow into a fortune.

Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

For Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to hit $10 trillion by 2030, it would need to more than double its market cap (about $4.7 trillion) over the next four-ish years. That works out to an annualized return of about 18%, which would price the stock at about $410 per share, assuming Nvidia's share count stays roughly unchanged (i.e, no dilution).

For almost any company, adding $5 trillion or more in market value would sound unrealistically demanding. For the world's most dominant supplier of AI accelerators, however, the growth required isn't as outrageous as it might seem. Let's take a look.

The math behind Nvidia's path to $10 trillion

The first thing working in Nvidia's favor is that its underlying market is growing rapidly.

The research firm Gartner, for instance, forecasts worldwide spending on artificial intelligence (AI) will hit about $2.6 trillion in 2026, a 47% increase since last year. What's more important for Nvidia is that Gartner predicts spending on AI-optimized servers will also triple over the next five years. Many of these servers are built around graphics processing units (GPUs) like Nvidia's, along with the networking equipment needed to link them. It follows, then, that if spending on AI servers increases over the next five years, Nvidia's total addressable market (TAM) would likely expand substantially with it.

Image source: Nvidia.

Some back-of-the-envelope calculations can make clear what Nvidia needs to do to support a $10 trillion market valuation. At a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30, which is about what it trades at today, Nvidia would need to generate about $333 billion in profit to support a $10 trillion market cap. A more conservative multiple of 25 times earnings would put the figure closer to $400 billion.

For perspective, Nvidia's net income in fiscal 2026 was about $120 billion. Its total revenue was about $216 billion, with a net margin of about 56%.

On that note, take a look at Wall Street's revenue predictions for Nvidia over the next two fiscal years.

Data by YCharts

As you can see in the chart, analysts expect Nvidia's revenue to grow at an annualized rate of about 32% from a fiscal 2027 estimate ($393 billion) through fiscal 2029 ($688 billion). If Nvidia were to generate around $688 billion in fiscal 2029 and convert 50% into net income, it would earn about $344 billion. Put a 30-times earnings multiple on that $344 billion in profits, and you get a market cap of $10.3 trillion.

Should you buy Nvidia at today's price?

Of course, these are estimates, not definite numbers. A lot can change in four years, and there's no guarantee Nvidia will beat competitors and remain as dominant as it is now.

Still, I think Nvidia looks attractive for investors willing to hold for at least five years. If the AI infrastructure market grows as predicted and Nvidia remains its predominant chip supplier, annualized returns in the high teens seem pretty doable. The stock might not deliver quadruple gains like it has over the past few years, but doubling by 2030 seems achievable to me.

Steven Porrello has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Up then down, up then down, up then down, up...

That's been the 2026 edition of Nano Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE) stock, which is rallying hard on new momentum this week.

The latest surge in Nano stock, which, as of midday July 30, is at plus-10%, comes after Nano announced a small positive milestone: The company was selected by the AFWERX, an innovation arm of the Department of the Air Force (DAF), to study how its microreactor KRONOS could help solve the DAF's most urgent energy problems.

It's a small win, but when your business is still trudging through the NRC's laborious regulatory process, you'll take every "nano" win you can get.

There's more to this deal than might be apparent at first glance, however. So let's take a deeper look.

Nano is building a defense story in addition to AI

The narrative around Nano Nuclear has been similar to that which has driven (and crushed) many other energy stocks: the expansion and construction of AI data centers.

To sum up, future electricity consumption appears to follow a J-shaped curve, with total average demand rising dramatically over the next two decades. Companies like Nano, whose nuclear reactors could be deployed for on-site power generation, could fill in gaps between today's generation capacity and the enormous capacity needed tomorrow.

That's all good, and AI has certainly put nuclear start-ups like Nano in the spotlight. But since any AI-related or -adjacent stock will rise and fall with the general tide of neural-network enthusiasm or pessimism, Nano has been subject to capricious mood swings. At its peak, this stock traded north of $60 per share; today, the business is stronger, and it trades a few quarters shy of $17.

Long preamble, short: This is why I love the recent moves Nano has been making, including this deepening relationship with the DAF. Military bases are a large potential market for nuclear energy, not only because the military tends to prioritize energy security but also because it may have the budget to tolerate higher up-front costs.

It also allows Nano to showcase its technology to higher-ups in the government, whose decision-making could play a vital role in deploying its microreactor by the Department of Defense.

Image source: Getty Images.

What this announcement does not mean, however, is just as important to consider as what it does: Nano is not selling a reactor to the Air Force. KRONOS is not the Air Force's preferred microreactor, nor is future deployment by the Air Force guaranteed.

Even after today's pop, Nano is still Nano, still under the duress of stamping its microreactor designs with NRC approval, building them at scale, and deploying them to customers. That will take years, perhaps a decade or longer. The stock isn't for the faint of heart, but patient investors comfortable with risk may find it an intriguing long-term play on new nuclear energy.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

For over three years, NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) has enjoyed the first-mover advantage of having a small modular reactor (SMR) with Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) certification.

What's been missing from NuScale's story, however, is a customer committed to deploying commercial reactors. For NuScale investors, the good news is that this gaping hole in NuScale's business could soon be closing.

Last year, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), America's largest public utility, and ENTRA1 Energy, NuScale's commercial partner, announced plans to deploy up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of NuScale's SMR technology. The deployment program calls for building six large-scale "Entra1 Energy Plants" across TVA's seven-state service area, with each plant served by 12 NuScale Power Modules, for a total of 72 modules.

This program would make the largest SMR deployment in U.S. history, not to mention the first large-scale commercial validation of NuScale's technology. Its development could be a game changer for NuScale stock. But before we get too enthusiastic, let's look at the fine print.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The deployment program doesn't guarantee anything yet

It would be easy to punctuate "72 reactors" with a flurry of exclamation marks. Surely, it's an important development, but the details of this agreement are just as significant to consider.

The most important thing is that this deployment agreement isn't a construction contract, as if TVA were committing itself to buying electricity from 72 reactors on the spot. Nor does NuScale have 72 modules manufactured and ready for deployment (according to its website, it's in the process of manufacturing 12).

The 6 GW deployment program is non-binding; in other words, any side of this triangulated relationship could walk away without risk of penalty or breach-of-contract lawsuit. The agreement is a collaborative one, and until it turns into a binding commercial agreement, the generation of any future revenue from it for NuScale isn't written in stone.

Another point to consider is ENTRA1's role with respect to NuScale. Under the companies' partnership milestones agreement, ENTRA1 is NuScale's commercial partner, while NuScale is the key supplier to ENTRA1's SMR projects. In the most basic sense, ENTRA1 develops and oversees SMR projects, while NuScale supplies the SMR technology. They complement each other and, over the long run, could prove fruitful for both energy companies.

But that's not the point I wanted to make. The agreement obligates NuScale to make milestone contributions to ENTRA1 in connection with projects. For example, if TVA and ENTRA1 sign a power purchase agreement, NuScale will have to pay roughly $16 million per module included in the agreement. If that's 72 modules, that's $1.15 billion.

NuScale has already incurred a $495 million milestone payment to ENTRA1 connected to the non-binding partnership milestones agreement with TVA. So, if the agreement with TVA were to ultimately fall apart, NuScale could owe half a billion dollars without a single reactor deployed.

To sum it up, the 6 GW deployment program could be exciting for NuScale investors, but right now it's still too undefined to be a compelling reason to buy NuScale stock. As I've emphasized in the past, NuScale isn't a stock you buy for security; it's an early-stage nuclear company whose stock will likely be as unpredictable as an electron. Consider it if you can stomach the volatility; otherwise, wait for a binding deal before opening a position.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Most of us in the U.S. take it for granted that when you flip a light switch, the lights will come on almost instantly. Indeed, we may never think twice about where the power comes from or whether it will be there tomorrow, because for most of our lives, we've never had to worry about it stopping or running out.

And yet this reliance, which is a massive achievement of industry, technology, and science, is now being tested. You can probably guess where I'm going with this: Artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), and a greater effort to electrify the economy are driving electricity demands higher.

By 2030, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects U.S. electricity demand to rise by roughly 20% to 25%. There's no other way of saying it: That's an enormous amount of electricity in a short period of time. The future, in other words, needs power. And if you're picking up what I'm laying down, the companies capable of supplying it could be on the cusp of enormous growth.

One of those is NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), and now is the time to buy it. Here's why.

NuScale could be entering its most important decade ever

In a nutshell, NuScale has an NRC-approved small modular reactor (SMR) to deploy. It hasn't deployed a reactor commercially, but it is pursuing two tentative first deployments, one in Romania and the other in the U.S., with ENTRA1, its commercial partner, and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), the largest public utility in the country.

The former project targets the first of NuScale's six modules going online in 2033, while the latter, which could see 72 modules deployed, has yet to establish an estimated timeline (it's not a binding agreement yet).

These first projects will likely be NuScale's most challenging to execute. Indeed, whenever you introduce new technology, the first few deployments are usually the most expensive, time-consuming, and least efficient. That was true for Tesla's early vehicles, and it's true for a small nuclear reactor, which the U.S. has not seen in commercial operation before.

Image source: Getty Images.

I would judge the success of NuScale's first project, therefore, not by whether it becomes a cash cow but by whether it removes uncertainty and produces, as a result, confidence that the project can, and will, be repeated.

If it can establish confidence by demonstrating that its SMR technology is operationally safe and generates electricity at competitive costs, then it can remove perhaps the greatest barrier to customers today: the reluctance to commit billions of dollars to a first-of-its-kind reactor.

My prediction is that by 2036, confidence will be firmly established. Even if NuScale only deploys a dozen modules by then, or roughly 15% of the 78 modules in its project backlog, its technology will be viable enough to attract other electric utilities whose grids are facing rapid growth in electricity demand.

At that point in the future, I think some investors will have wanted to buy NuScale stock when the company was still in a tough transition, legally allowed to deploy its SMR technology but constrained by time and manufacturing capacity to deploy at scale. At about sub-$8 a share today, this nuclear energy stock has the potential to become a long-term wealth builder for risk-tolerant investors who can hold for a decade or more.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has been on a remarkable losing streak. As of this writing, ten out of the previous 12 trading days have ended with a new record-low closing price. SpaceX's stock is trading roughly 50% below its all-time high of $225 and about 15% below its $135 IPO price.

I could insert a tired joke on failed launches or downward trajectories, but that would only distract from an important point: If you've been holding out on buying SpaceX, the buying opportunity might be coming into view. Here's what I mean.

Why SpaceX's falling share price is improving its long-term potential

Throughout SpaceX's short life on the market, the stock -- at least for disciples of Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham like moi -- has been overburdened by an absurdly high valuation. I could pull any valuation metric out of my hat -- a price-to-sales ratio of 77, for instance -- but you square it, SpaceX stock has looked repulsively pricy by traditional standards.

It still, to be sure, does: Even after losing $1.2 trillion -- an amount roughly equivalent to the individual market caps of Tesla, Micron, and Berkshire Hathaway -- the stock carries a market cap of $1.5 trillion, which is still higher than the three mega companies just mentioned.

But now that SpaceX has shaved off -- and is continuing to shave -- some of its excessive valuation, the margin of error for investors grows wider. Before, at a multitrillion-dollar valuation, SpaceX would have to perform so perfectly that nothing short of space-based AI data centers and multiplanetary civilization would have been enough to send the stock soaring.

Image source: Getty Images.

With half of its valuation wiped out, SpaceX no longer has to conquer the solar system to get investors to pay attention. Indeed, one might say that actual business growth will begin to matter more than whatever ambitious vision the space company can cook up next.

To be sure, those unrealized, galactic ambitions are still driving much of the stock's current trillion-dollar valuation, which is why investors still should exercise caution.

For example, it's easy to look at its rounded-up 2025 revenue of $19 billion and say, "Yeah, but its (self-reported) total addressable market (TAM) is $28.5 trillion!" Never mind that $28.5 trillion is about $9 trillion larger than China's entire economy and only about $2 trillion shy of the United States'. As with any company whose valuation depends on hypothetical future business, a good dose of clear-headed rationality could stop you from sinking the nest egg into what amounts to a fantasy.

Let me be clear: A lower share price does not necessarily make SpaceX a better business. It does, however, make the same business cheaper to buy. And since I believe SpaceX has the leadership, technical knowledge, and ambition to expand the limits of human civilization, every bit of air that comes out of this obscenely valued stock makes me feel slightly more bullish.

But not bullish enough to buy: not yet. Personally, I don't think SpaceX belongs in the trillion-dollar club yet. I would continue to hold off on buying SpaceX for now, at least until its valuation looks even more reasonable or until its financial results catch up to its extraordinary ambitions.

Steven Porrello has positions in Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Micron Technology, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO), the advanced nuclear company, trades about 46% lower on the year.

The ongoing sell-off of the nuclear stock, which has wiped out roughly 80% of its value since last October, wasn't completely unwarranted, as its valuation had grown lofty for a nuclear start-up with no commercial revenue.

However, Oklo's situation is improving. It now has a project pipeline that exceeds 14 gigawatts. Federal policy is becoming increasingly supportive of advanced nuclear power for AI data centers. The company also received authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy to start loading nuclear fuel into its Groves Reactor for testing.

These are solid reasons to feel bullish on Oklo, but my confidence ultimately comes down to management.

Image source: Oklo.

Indeed, regarding pure technical credibility, Oklo's leadership is impressively gifted. CEO Jacob DeWitte, who co-founded the company in 2013, holds an S.M. and Ph.D in nuclear engineering from MIT. His graduate research covered sodium fast reactors, the same technology Oklo is developing, as well as the economics of improving the U.S.'s existing nuclear fleet.

Co-founder Caroline DeWitte, who is Jacob's wife, also studied nuclear engineering at MIT and previously served on the U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Advisor Committee.

The DeWittes' expertise doesn't, of course, guarantee commercial success, but it does give me confidence that Oklo is being led by people who understand the technology from the inside out.

Combine that leadership with Oklo's other strengths -- its partnerships, strong federal tailwinds, and its about $2.6 billion in liquid assets at the end of March -- and the nuclear stock seems like a compelling buy at today's price.

Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has a radical vision that Wall Street once loved but now is losing faith in, apparently.

The vision? For that, you have to imagine a sky in the city: Picture, there, helicopter-like aircraft, sleek, electric, and quiet, taxiing folks to and from vertiports in the city. If you can see a lot of these electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft in your make-believe sky, then you can also picture Joby in its heyday, maintaining strong margins on these flying cars. The faster and safer they whirl above traffic, the stronger the demand for air taxi services.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

But now, the reality. For that, look at the skies above any American city: There are no eVTOLs flying commercially in the U.S. Joby may have built one of the most advanced flying taxi prototypes in the world today, but without proof that it can be mass-produced, investors have been a little less sure of its stock.

Increased hesitation toward Joby's business, whetted by a general skepticism toward speculative stocks today, has contributed to the air taxi designer's roughly 50% decline in 2026. And yet for those who can hold the stock long-term, I think today could be the entry that stamps a ticket to millionaire status. Here's one reason why.

Joby may be further along than investors realize

Five years ago, Morgan Stanley released a sweeping report on the future of eVTOLs and urban air mobility (UAM). Although the 50-page document has plenty of fascinating information, the most stirring among investors was a prediction that the total addressable market (TAM) for eVTOLs would reach $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050.

That was only the base case, too. In Morgan Stanley's most bullish scenario, analysts forecast the global eVTOL and UAM market reaching $4.4 trillion by 2040 and $18.9 trillion by 2050.

So far, Joby hasn't done anything yet to rule out Morgan Stanley's base case. In fact, its technological and regulatory progress looks pretty consistent with it. Joby has demonstrated flights in New York City, it is gearing up for production with its manufacturing partner Toyota (NYSE: TM), and it's two years deep into the fourth of the FAA's five-stage process for Type Certification.

With FAA Type Certification, Joby's eVTOL design -- the S4 -- would meet the FAA's safety standards, which would be a massive step forward toward commercialization.

But here's where it gets interesting: Joby has made such immense progress that it hasn't ruled out the bull case scenario, either.

If you read the conditions that would create this bullish scenario, your eye might catch something interesting: "Economic rationale more clearly evident and taking a far larger share of surface transport market, bolstered by relatively more accommodative policy and path to certification."

And wasn't it just last September that Joby planned to "jump-start U.S. operations" through a White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), an initiative designed to accelerate commercial operations of eVTOLs in the U.S?

It is, of course, too early to say whether the eVTOL's TAD is on track for the $19 trillion bull case. But the situation today is much more optimistic than Morgan Stanley's bear case -- which combines unsuccessful technology and obstructive governmental policy -- and seems very supportive of the business Joby is trying to build.

For that, I think this year's sell-off will, in retrospect, look like a prime buying opportunity. Almost everything that matters still sits in front of Joby -- it needs FAA type certification more than anything -- but for risk-tolerant investors, a sizable position could be your ticket to millionaire status.

Steven Porrello has positions in Joby Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.